risks

According to Jinshi reports, the European Central Bank's meeting minutes show that all members believe the risks to the inflation outlook are tilted to the upside.

Bitcoin rose to about $74,935 during the Asian session, up 0.7% in the last 24 hours and 5.4% for the week. However, the derivatives market is sending mixed signals. Institutional firm QCP Capital pointed out that this round of increase is mainly driven by spot trading, rather than a broad recovery in risk appetite.Currently, the funding rate for Bitcoin perpetual contracts remains negative, and open interest has decreased, indicating that short sellers are still increasing hedges rather than passively closing positions. The options market is also leaning towards caution: short-term implied volatility is sluggish, with one-month volatility lower than three-month volatility, and the risk reversal indicator shows that the market's demand for downside protection is higher than for upside bets, indicating that traders are more inclined to pay for potential declines rather than chase upward movements. QCP believes this is more of a "bounce" rather than a trend reversal.On a macro level, long-term U.S. Treasury yields and gold prices have not confirmed a recovery in risk appetite, with gold still near high levels, indicating that safe-haven demand remains. Institutions point out that the current market is more driven by expectations of a ceasefire and "emotional repair," rather than a core risk being alleviated. Additionally, Ethereum has shown relatively strong performance, with the ETH/BTC ratio rising to about 0.0315, combined with on-chain transaction volumes and stablecoin supply reaching all-time highs, indicating signs of capital rotating towards high β assets. However, the market still needs to observe the evolution of subsequent risk events to confirm the sustainability of this round of increase.

According to Jinshi reports, Federal Reserve's Musalem stated that supply shocks pose risks to the Fed's inflation and employment targets, and the current interest rate range "may be appropriate for some time."

One of the Bitcoin contributors, Jameson Loop, along with other cryptographers, has proposed an initiative that may force Bitcoin holders to migrate their tokens to new quantum-resistant addresses, or else their tokens will be permanently frozen by the network itself. In this scenario, holders technically still own these coins but will lose the ability to transfer them. This is known as Bitcoin Improvement Proposal BIP-361, which was updated on Tuesday in Bitcoin's official proposal repository, titled "Post-Quantum Migration and Old Signature Retirement."BIP-361 builds on the BIP-360 proposal introduced in February. BIP-360 introduced a soft fork (a type of network upgrade) aimed at enabling a new transaction type called "Pay to Merkle Root" (P2MR). This approach draws on Bitcoin's Taproot (P2TR) framework but removes key-based spending paths, thereby eliminating an element widely considered to pose risks in the quantum era.The BIP-361 proposal divides the migration into three phases. Phase A starts three years after activation and prohibits anyone from sending new bitcoins to old, quantum-vulnerable addresses. You can still spend from these addresses, but you cannot receive any coins. Phase B starts five years after activation and will render old signatures (ECDSA and Schnorr) completely ineffective, with the network rejecting any attempts to spend coins from quantum-vulnerable wallets.Essentially, your coins will be frozen. Finally, there is Phase C, which is a rescue plan still under research: holders of frozen wallets may potentially prove ownership through zero-knowledge proofs (a method of proving knowledge of a secret without revealing the secret itself). If successful, the coins frozen in Phase B can be recovered.

According to Cointelegraph, Bernstein stated that the previous pullback of Bitcoin has to some extent reflected the market's concerns about the risks of quantum computing, believing that this threat is "real but manageable," and is not yet an imminent systemic risk.Although research, including that from Google, suggests that future quantum computers could potentially crack commonly used blockchain encryption algorithms quickly under extreme conditions, advancements in zero-knowledge proofs and post-quantum cryptography have formed a hedge to some extent.Bernstein believes that Bitcoin developers still have about 3 to 5 years to advance the post-quantum upgrade path and mentioned the current BIP-360 proposal, which could reduce some quantum exposure risks through a soft fork. Additionally, institutional investors (including ETF issuers and corporate holders) are expected to play an active role in promoting consensus for the upgrade.However, industry opinions point out that the main challenge of the post-quantum upgrade lies in user migration and consensus formation, rather than the technical implementation itself.

Agent Garrett Jin from "1011 Insider Whale" pointed out in an analysis that the U.S. announcement to implement a maritime blockade in the Strait of Hormuz is one of the "most tactically wise" moves in the current conflict, but it is unlikely to achieve the goal of ending the war. This strategy has two short-term advantages: first, it directly weakens Iran's crude oil export revenue by about 1.7 million barrels per day; second, compared to occupying key facilities (such as Khark Island), the cost of a maritime blockade is lower and the risks are more controllable.However, the effectiveness of this strategy faces multiple challenges. For example, the current blockade mainly targets Iranian ports rather than completely closing the strait, and third-party transshipment routes still exist. Additionally, it undermines the U.S.'s long-term international image of maintaining "freedom of navigation," which could have far-reaching effects on global maritime order.Garrett Jin concluded that while the blockade measures may reshape the initiative in the short term, they are unlikely to force Iran to make concessions and may instead compress diplomatic space and prolong the conflict cycle. The market has accounted for the impact of the blockade itself, but has not fully priced in the potential paths for escalation that may follow.

As Robinhood accelerates its layout in the prediction market, it has proactively excluded certain contract products due to concerns that they may foster market manipulation and insider trading risks. Robinhood UK President Jordan Sinclair stated that the company is highly attentive to market abuse issues and will not offer all prediction markets or event contracts to users, but will selectively launch products that are more suitable for customers.Recently, several "precise betting" incidents have raised regulatory concerns. For example, there were unusually large bets placed on Polymarket before U.S. actions against Iran; Israeli regulators have also sued two individuals who used confidential information to place bets. Additionally, "mention markets" (such as words that will appear in a speech being bet on) have been explicitly excluded from Robinhood's product range due to their susceptibility to manipulation.Currently, Robinhood primarily provides compliant prediction market services through partnerships with Kalshi and ForecastEx, prioritizing regulated platforms to reduce information abuse and cross-border compliance risks. In contrast, the less regulated Polymarket allows users to trade through cryptocurrency wallets with relatively loose identity verification.Robinhood previously anticipated that prediction markets would become an important growth engine, with CEO Vlad Tenev stating that this business could become one of the fastest-growing segments by 2025, potentially driving the formation of a trillion-dollar annual trading scale in the future.

According to Bloomberg, the Federal Reserve is inquiring in detail with major banks about their risk exposure in the private credit sector, due to a surge in fund redemptions and a continuous rise in non-performing loans. The Treasury is also simultaneously questioning the insurance industry to comprehensively assess the overall pressure on the $1.8 trillion private credit industry and the risks of its spillover into the financial system.BitMEX founder Arthur Hayes commented, "I hope the scale is large enough so that we can welcome money printing to save the market." Implicitly, if this regulatory assessment reveals systemic risks, it may force the Federal Reserve to restart easing and implement large-scale monetary expansion, which could benefit the cryptocurrency market.

According to The Block, Bitcoin has continued to fluctuate at high levels this week, with prices remaining above $72,000, influenced by the situation in the Middle East and U.S. CPI inflation data. The spot Bitcoin ETF recorded a net inflow of $358 million, while Ethereum funds saw an additional approximately $85 million in funding.Analysts point out that although the risk premium has decreased due to the ceasefire in the Middle East, the market has not yet returned to normal, with oil prices, interest rates, and crypto assets closely linked. The March CPI increased by 3.3% year-on-year, slightly below expectations, with rising energy costs being the main driver. Institutional investors remain cautious about risks, and the options market indicates that summer volatility may tend to calm down. The current Bitcoin trend is driven by macroeconomic and geopolitical factors, with traders waiting for more data to determine the subsequent direction.

According to market news, Strategy founder Michael Saylor stated that Bitcoin likely bottomed around $60,000 in early February, when forced sellers were cleared from the market. The bottom is more determined by seller exhaustion rather than valuation. He believes that current selling pressure is limited, ETF inflows are absorbing daily supply, and corporate allocation of financial assets to Bitcoin is also creating sustained demand.Michael Saylor predicts that the catalyst for the next bull market will be the establishment of a banking credit and digital credit system built on Bitcoin, which will transform Bitcoin from a non-yielding asset into a capital market engine. Regarding the recently discussed threat of quantum computing, he believes the risks are exaggerated, and quantum threats remain theoretical and are likely to emerge decades later. By then, there will also be solutions. Mizuho maintains an outperform rating on Strategy with a target price of $320, which offers about 150% upside from the current stock price of $127.

According to Jinshi reports, the Federal Reserve's meeting minutes show that most officials believe that the developments in the Middle East have increased economic risks.

According to Jinshi reports, the Federal Reserve meeting minutes show that the vast majority of participants believe that both the upward risk of inflation and the downward risk of employment are at a high level.

According to Jinshi News, at 2 AM Beijing time tonight, the Federal Reserve will release the minutes from the March monetary policy meeting. This document was created against the backdrop of escalating conflicts in the Middle East and an increasingly complex market environment, and it will reveal how Federal Reserve officials assess supply shocks and inflationary pressures, as well as their framework for judging risk balance. Investors are advised to pay attention.

According to Jinshi reports, Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Jefferson stated that the current labor market faces downside risks, while inflation faces upside risks.

The Department of Homeland Security's official account pointed out that "token scams" are emerging one after another, especially illegal financial activities such as "holding tokens to get rich" and "making profits from off-exchange trading," which may be exploited by foreign espionage and intelligence agencies to harm national economic security. In the face of new technologies and applications, we must actively embrace and effectively utilize them while also preventing risks and ensuring safety, including risks of leakage and hijacking, risks of forgery and tampering, and risks of fraud traps.In the face of the token craze, we must view its value rationally, pay attention to information security and privacy security, and enhance our awareness of safety precautions, ensuring that we understand tokens and use them wisely.

According to Jinshi reports, JPMorgan CEO Dimon stated that war-related risks could lead to more stubborn inflation, and interest rates will be higher than market expectations.

JAN3 CEO Samson Mow posted on the X platform, stating that the current response to the threat of quantum computing (QC) to Bitcoin should not be rushed. Blindly and hastily switching from the existing signature mechanism to post-quantum (PQ) solutions may expose Bitcoin to the risk of classical computing attacks in the short term. The size of PQ signatures could increase by 10 to 125 times, significantly reducing network throughput and potentially triggering a repeat of the scaling disputes similar to the early "block wars."In addition, Samson Mow warned that some PQ solutions may have potential backdoor risks. The threat of quantum computing is still in the medium to long-term stage (which may take 10 to 20 years). The more reasonable path currently is to continue research rather than rush deployment. He also specifically mentioned Coinbase, stating that its wallet has quantum attack vulnerabilities due to address reuse, and suggested prioritizing the repair of related infrastructure issues.

Monad co-founder Keone Hon released a protocol security self-inspection checklist on the X platform, focusing on core issues such as management permissions, fund security, and multi-signature mechanism design, which mainly includes ten points:Clearly identify which admin functions may lead to fund loss;Ensure that relevant operations are time-locked;Establish a real-time monitoring mechanism;Provide timely alerts when admin functions are called;Review all privileged accounts and try to use a multi-signature (k-of-n) structure;Clarify signature threshold parameters;Multi-signature signers should use independent cold devices solely for signing operations and follow best practices (such as independently verifying transaction hashes);Set rate limits on withdrawals and avoid control by the same multi-signature;Ensure employee devices have malware detection and management capabilities;Predefine extreme scenarios where multi-signature signers are compromised, reverse engineer potential attack paths from the attacker's perspective, and optimize system design accordingly to increase attack costs and complexity.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) stated in its latest report that Tokenized Finance is not a simple upgrade of traditional finance, but rather a structural transformation. It replaces intermediaries with smart contracts and shared ledgers, restructuring the architecture of global markets. Currently, the scale of tokenized real-world assets (RWAs) has reached $27.5 billion, with tokenized U.S. Treasury bonds exceeding $12 billion.The IMF pointed out that while tokenization can achieve near-instant settlement and 24/7 trading, its speed, automation, and programmability may amplify systemic risks, rapidly spreading liquidity crises under market pressure, lacking the buffering effect of traditional settlement delays.