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first_img Galaxy: The probability of the CLARITY Act passing has dropped to 10%, SEC and CFTC accelerate independent actions

Galaxy Research analyst Alex Thorn pointed out that as the likelihood of the CLARITY Act passing in 2026 significantly decreases, the U.S. SEC and CFTC are intensifying independent cryptocurrency regulatory actions. The bill previously gained bipartisan support in the Senate Banking Committee but has stalled due to unresolved ethical rules for officials regarding cryptocurrency, pressure from community banks leading to some Republican positions softening, and disputes over developer protection clauses. The Senate Majority Leader failed to push for a vote before the August recess, and the September session is only about two to three weeks long, leading Galaxy to lower the probability to 10%.On the SEC side, the originally planned "Reg Crypto" exemption (which provides a new path for primary issuance of crypto assets) and "Innovation Exemption" (which allows tokenized securities to trade in DeFi secondary markets) have been postponed multiple times. It is reported that the agency had retreated due to opposition from the traditional securities industry, but may restart due to the bleak outlook of the bill, with text expected to be released in the coming weeks to months. These measures are likely to be time-limited sandboxes that will face litigation and require years to refine. The CFTC is actively advocating for jurisdiction over prediction market contracts, responding to the New York Attorney General's attempt to issue an emergency order to ban Kalshi event contracts nationwide, continuing the tug-of-war over federal and state jurisdiction regarding prediction markets.Thorn believes that while the bill covers a comprehensive framework including registration licensing, compliance monitoring, and consumer protection, it is currently more dominated by political factors. SEC Commissioner Hester Peirce's planned departure in November also adds urgency to the advancement of the rules. The related actions aim to fill the legislative vacuum but may ultimately undergo a lengthy judicial and rule-making process.

Data: The high-position chips of BTC in 2025 have decreased by 41.5%, and the market's maximum supply pressure may be easing

On-chain analyst Murphy stated that currently, all chips bought in BTC in 2025 are basically in a state of loss. Therefore, apart from wallet migrations, the reduction in the scale of 2025 chips likely means that holders are cutting losses and selling. Data shows that as of now, approximately 4.77 million BTC chips bought in 2025 remain, a decrease of 41.5% from the peak in December last year.From the downward trend, this group has experienced two phases: a rapid decrease in chips before February this year, and a significant slowdown in the rate of decline after February, although it still maintains a certain slope. Murphy believes that the 2025 chips may be the largest potential supply side in the current market scale. In contrast, the BTC chips formed in 2024, 2023, and 2022 have basically completed the release of high-level locked positions due to still having unrealized gains, and the slope of the curve is gradually flattening, indicating that the selling pressure from long-term holders is weakening.Historical data shows that during the bottom phases of the past two bear markets, high-level chips have shown a significant decline: at the bottom of the bear market in 2022, the chips bought at high levels in 2021 decreased by about 51%; at the bottom of the bear market in 2018, the chips bought at high levels in 2017 decreased by about 62%. If we refer to historical cycles, Murphy believes that in this bear market bottom phase, the reduction of high-level chips in 2025 may be in the range of 50%-60%, and the current decline of 41.5% indicates that there is still some room for release. However, this judgment has not yet considered the BTC bought by institutional investors such as spot ETFs and MicroStrategy, as this portion of chips is mostly in a long-term locked state, which may reduce the actual market supply pressure.
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