venezuela

According to Jinshi Data, Republican members of the U.S. House of Representatives on Thursday voted down a resolution aimed at prohibiting President Trump from taking further military action against Venezuela without congressional authorization, with a tie vote of 215 to 215. A similar measure failed in the Senate a few days earlier.In the narrowly divided House, the voting results were largely along party lines. All Republicans, except for Don Bacon of Nebraska and Thomas Massie of Kentucky, voted against it. All Democrats voted in favor. This deadlocked vote reflects concerns in Congress (including among some Republicans) about Trump's foreign policy. An increasing number of people support the constitutional view that the power to send U.S. troops into combat should belong to Congress, not the President.

Trump stated in a speech that the leaker of the Venezuela incident has been captured and may face long-term imprisonment.In addition, Polymarket data shows that out of 3 insider address accounts related to Venezuela on Polymarket, 1 account is no longer viewable, with its last activity being 11 days ago.

According to Cointelegraph, when asked whether the U.S. would seize Bitcoin held by Venezuela, SEC Chairman Paul Atkins did not rule out the possibility.It has been reported that Venezuela holds Bitcoin worth up to $60 billion (approximately 600,000 coins), but several analysts have stated that they cannot verify this data. Atkins responded that what actions the U.S. would take if given the opportunity to seize these Bitcoins "remains to be seen," adding that he himself was not involved in the related decision-making. Previously, the U.S. military, under President Trump's directive, arrested Venezuelan President Maduro and transferred him to New York, where he faces criminal charges.

The chairman of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), Paul Atkins, stated that it remains to be seen whether the U.S. will seize the Bitcoin assets allegedly held by Venezuela. In an interview with Fox Business, he responded that several blockchain analysts are currently unable to verify claims that Venezuela may hold up to $6 billion (approximately 60,000 BTC), and that any related actions will be decided by other government departments, with the SEC not involved.

On the evening of January 11, Eastern Time, Trump posted on social media, calling himself the "acting president of Venezuela."

According to a report by Jinshi citing the Global Times, Trump met with oil industry executives in the East Room of the White House to discuss the future control of Venezuela's energy industry by the United States.During the meeting, he wore a mini "Trump" pin beneath the traditional miniature American flag badge on his suit lapel. When a reporter asked about the origin of the accessory, Trump replied, "Someone gave me this. Do you know what this is? It's called 'Happy Trump'." The image of Trump on the pin is exaggeratedly enlarged, with an open mouth and a distinctly cartoonish style, leading many netizens to immediately point out its resemblance to a "wobble-head doll" version of Trump. Trump did not disclose the identity of the giver."I am never happy, never satisfied," Trump said while pulling open his suit lapel to look at the pin, then looking up at the reporters with a playful smile, "I will never be satisfied until we make America great again. But I have to tell you, we are quite close. This is called 'Happy Trump'."

According to The Wall Street Journal, Tether's role as the world's leading stablecoin has been influenced by Maduro, as Tether serves as an important tool for the Venezuelan state oil company (Petróleos de Venezuela, abbreviated as PdVSA) to evade sanctions, being used as a currency for oil trade settlements and providing an economic lifeline for Venezuelans suffering from the plummeting value of their national currency, the bolívar.A spokesperson for Tether responded that the company complies with all applicable U.S. and international sanctions regulations and works closely with U.S. authorities, including the Office of Foreign Assets Control, and regularly assists law enforcement in freezing addresses related to illegal activities or sanctions violations upon legitimate requests.

According to the Straits Times, U.S. President Trump claimed that his "own moral code" is the only constraint on his orders to take military action globally.Just days before making this statement, Trump launched a lightning strike to overthrow Venezuelan President Maduro and threatened to take action against numerous other countries, including Greenland.In an interview with The New York Times on Wednesday (January 7), Trump was asked if there are limits to his global power. He responded, "Yes, only one. That is my own moral code, my own thoughts. That is the only thing that can constrain me."He also stated, "I don't need international law, I have no intention of harming others."The Republican president then added, "I do indeed" need to comply with international law, but "it depends on what your definition of international law is."According to AFP, the United States is not a member of the International Criminal Court (ICC), which prosecutes war criminals, and has repeatedly rejected the rulings of the International Court of Justice (ICJ).

Regarding the recent market rumors that "the Venezuelan government may secretly hold Bitcoin worth hundreds of billions of dollars," analysts have pointed out that this claim is largely based on speculation and second-hand information, and currently lacks credible on-chain evidence that can directly link the relevant funds to wallets controlled at the national level by Venezuela.The related doubts mainly focus on three potential sources: the conversion of gold sold in 2018 into Bitcoin, oil revenues settled in Bitcoin or cryptocurrencies, and Bitcoin mining equipment confiscated by the government. Analysts believe that while some oil transactions in Venezuela have indeed been settled in crypto assets, and there have been cases of mining equipment being confiscated by the government, there is no reliable evidence to indicate that the proceeds from the gold sales in 2018 were largely converted into Bitcoin.Furthermore, analysts point out that the long-standing systemic corruption in Venezuela makes it more likely that any crypto asset-related gains would be siphoned off by individuals rather than entering the official national reserve system. For example, in cases related to the national oil company and regulatory agencies, substantial funds have been misappropriated in recent years, yet this has not been reflected in the official reserve data.In terms of mining, the view is that aging power infrastructure, prolonged power outages, and the government's inadequate management capabilities in complex operations make it difficult to maintain stable large-scale Bitcoin mining operations. Overall, there is currently insufficient evidence to support the judgment that the Venezuelan government holds a large-scale "secret Bitcoin reserve," and related claims remain in the realm of speculation.

Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour stated on LinkedIn that Kalshi supports legislation proposed by New York Democratic Congressman Ritchie Torres, which aims to prohibit government officials from insider trading on platforms like Kalshi.Tarek Mansour also mentioned in the article that the recent allegations of insider trading primarily involve unregulated offshore platforms.Previously, it was reported that New York Democratic Congressman Ritchie Torres plans to introduce a bill this week called the "2026 Financial Prediction Markets Public Integrity Act." This bill would prohibit federally elected officials, politically appointed officials, and executive branch employees from trading on prediction markets while possessing non-public information related to trading, or when they might obtain such information through their positions.

The founder of Maelstrom, Arthur Hayes, pointed out in his latest article "Suavemente" that the United States' geopolitical actions to "arrest" Maduro and effectively control Venezuela's oil resources aim to lower oil prices and curb inflation, providing President Trump with ongoing space for loose monetary and fiscal expansion, thereby maintaining voter support in the midterm elections.He believes that in an environment of "money printing stimulus + controlled energy prices," the rise in nominal GDP will boost risk assets, especially inflation-resistant assets like Bitcoin. He explicitly stated that one should "go long on BTC and quality crypto assets" at present. Maelstrom is nearly fully invested heading into 2026 and is optimistic about the privacy narrative sector (such as ZEC) becoming the next main theme.

Bitfinex analysts indicate that if American companies enter Venezuela to develop its vast oil reserves, it could lower energy prices in the medium to long term, thereby improving the profitability of Bitcoin miners.The analysis points out that cheaper and more abundant energy supplies are expected to enhance miners' profit margins and may drive a new round of mining expansion, especially in areas where long-term power contracts can be secured. Bitfinex believes that even a small portion of Venezuela's 30.3 billion barrels of oil reserves could have a substantial impact on the energy market, providing relief to miners currently pressured by the decline in Bitcoin prices, rising mining difficulty, and increasing electricity costs.However, the analysis also notes that the substantial recovery of Venezuela's oil production capacity will still take years, with progress depending on political transitions and sanctions policy arrangements. Overall, changes in energy are still a secondary factor affecting the crypto market, with price trends more likely to be driven by macro risk appetite and cross-asset allocation.

Bitwise Research Director Ryan Rasmussen stated, "Wall Street's explanation for Bitcoin's rise of about 5% is that the release of Venezuela's oil reserves, falling oil prices, declining inflation, and lower interest rates have led to the increase in Bitcoin. However, this logic is flawed; in the short term, the probability of interest rate cuts has remained largely unchanged compared to last week. Even looking ahead to the end of 2026, the expectations for rate cuts remain unchanged after Maduro's arrest. Since Maduro's arrest, the factors driving Bitcoin's price increase of over 5% are as follows:Institutional adoption (positive for Bitcoin): Since the launch of the spot Bitcoin ETF in 2024, institutional funds have been continuously flowing into the crypto market, and this trend is accelerating. With major platforms like Morgan Stanley, Wells Fargo, and Bank of America’s Merrill Lynch starting to allocate assets (for example, a net inflow of about $500 million to Bitcoin ETFs on January 2), institutional participation is significantly increasing.Shift in crypto regulation (positive for Bitcoin): As the crypto-friendly regulatory direction gradually establishes itself after the 2024 elections, the crypto industry will begin to genuinely feel the benefits brought by this policy shift. Wall Street institutions, including wealth management firms, university endowment funds, pensions, and sovereign wealth funds, are starting to allocate Bitcoin more seriously and systematically.Optimism around AI (positive for risk assets): Concerns about an AI bubble are easing. Investor sentiment is turning optimistic, with funds flowing back into risk-appetite assets such as tech stocks and Bitcoin.Unchanged expectations for rate cuts (positive for risk assets): Maduro's arrest has not materially changed short-term expectations for rate cuts, nor does it mean that quantitative easing (QE) has been ruled out; QE has only just begun. The market previously, and still, expects a 50 basis point (or even more) rate cut in 2026. This weekend's events in Venezuela had some impact on Bitcoin, but they are not the main reason for Bitcoin's rise of about 5%.

According to Venezuelan media reports, on the evening of January 5 local time, intense gunfire and explosions were heard in the downtown area of Caracas, including near the presidential palace.There are also reports of possible drone or aircraft noises, prompting the activation of air defense systems. Some areas have experienced power outages. The Venezuelan government has not yet issued a statement on this matter.

According to Reuters, the Swiss Federal Council stated on Monday that following the capture of Venezuelan President Maduro by the U.S. military and his transfer to the United States, Switzerland has frozen all assets held by Maduro and his associates in Switzerland. This measure takes immediate effect and is valid for four years, aimed at preventing potential illegal asset outflows. It also serves as a complement to the existing sanctions Switzerland has imposed on Venezuela since 2018.The Swiss authorities stated that the asset freeze does not affect members of the current Venezuelan government and noted that if any illegally obtained funds are discovered, Switzerland will seek to return them for the benefit of the Venezuelan people.