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AAVE $122.61 -3.42%
SUI $0.9138 -6.63%
XLM $0.1605 -4.62%
ZEC $260.31 -8.86%
BTC $66,571.00 +3.64%
ETH $1,988.23 +5.94%
BNB $624.15 +4.52%
XRP $1.42 -4.56%
SOL $81.67 -4.53%
TRX $0.2795 -0.47%
DOGE $0.0974 -3.83%
ADA $0.2735 -4.22%
BCH $446.67 +0.31%
LINK $8.64 -2.97%
HYPE $28.98 -1.81%
AAVE $122.61 -3.42%
SUI $0.9138 -6.63%
XLM $0.1605 -4.62%
ZEC $260.31 -8.86%

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Analysis: BTC faith buyers' positions have reached a new record high for this cycle, and the bottom of the bear market is no longer far away

Cryptanalysis expert Murphy stated that analyzing on-chain data from both spatial and temporal dimensions, the current distance to the "bear bottom" is no longer far off. In terms of space, taking the previous cycle as an example, in June 2022, BTC dropped to a low of $17,000, which is not far from the ultimate absolute bottom price of $15,000, indicating that it is already in the "bear bottom" range spatially. However, it took a full 7 months to truly emerge from and complete the bottom reconstruction.Currently, the "space" is getting closer to the bear bottom, but there is still a considerable distance in terms of "time." It is crucial to observe the behavior of conviction-driven buyers (Conviction Buyers, hereinafter referred to as CB), who, as the smartest diamond hands in this market, often buy during declines and sell after increases. In other words, rather than saying they frequently buy at the bottom, it is more accurate to say that the bottom is often constructed by this group of buyers. As of February, conviction buyers have accumulated a holding of 3.48 million BTC, setting a new record for this cycle. Since January of this year, they have significantly increased their holdings by 1.22 million BTC, a figure that far exceeds the previous cycle's events during the 5.19 incident, LUNA crash, and FTX collapse. Moreover, the current BTC price is higher than the aforementioned time points, indicating that "smart decision-makers" are investing more funds at this time.Although the final bottom position is difficult to predict, for the CB group, they do not hope to go all-in at the lowest point; as long as there is sufficient cost-effectiveness, they will continue to buy until all excess supply is absorbed. When a balance is achieved on both the supply and demand sides, it forms the bottom range of the bear market, after which, through months of consensus reconstruction, a new trend will emerge. From historical data, the determination and strength currently exhibited by conviction-driven buyers fully meet the standard of "not far from the bear bottom."

The heads of the central bank and the securities regulatory commission: The domestic policy stance has always been prohibitive towards activities related to virtual currencies

According to Jinshi reports, relevant officials from the People's Bank of China and the China Securities Regulatory Commission answered reporters' questions regarding the "Notice on Further Preventing and Dealing with Risks Related to Virtual Currencies." They stated that regarding virtual currencies, there has long been a prohibitive policy stance on related business activities within the country.In 2013, the People's Bank of China and five other departments jointly issued the "Notice on Preventing Bitcoin Risks," which clarified that Bitcoin is a specific virtual commodity and should not be circulated or used as currency in the market. The "Notice on Further Preventing and Dealing with Risks of Virtual Currency Trading Speculation," issued in 2021, further clarified that Bitcoin, Ethereum, and stablecoins such as Tether do not have the same legal status as fiat currency, and conducting virtual currency-related business activities within the country is considered illegal financial activity and is strictly prohibited.The notice continues the policy stance of recent years, reiterating that virtual currencies do not have the same legal status as fiat currency, and conducting virtual currency-related business activities within the country is illegal financial activity. Foreign entities and individuals are not allowed to illegally provide virtual currency-related services to domestic entities in any form.
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