weekly

According to QCP Capital's latest market report, Bitcoin has fallen approximately 11.6% this week, continuing to be under pressure. Market sentiment has been affected by the rare news of Strategy selling 32 BTC, although the sale size was only about $2.5 million, which had almost no substantial impact on its holdings of over 840,000 coins. However, it broke the long-standing market expectation of Strategy's "never selling coins," weakening the confidence of some investors.On a macro level, the situation is also unfavorable. The escalation of the Middle East situation and the stagnation of US-Iran negotiations have driven oil prices up, with the risk premium in the Strait of Hormuz being re-emphasized. Meanwhile, US job vacancy data was stronger than expected, reducing the market's bets on a short-term rate cut by the Federal Reserve and reinforcing the expectation of "higher rates for longer." The options market shows a significant increase in defensive sentiment. The 30-day at-the-money implied volatility (ATM IV) rose to about 41.4%, with a weekly increase of about 7 volatility points. The risk reversal indicator remains biased negative, with a short-term inverted yield curve reflecting strong demand for downside protection in the market.QCP believes that the current market is not in a panic sell-off but is re-pricing downside risks. Weak spot demand, rising oil prices, increasing real interest rates, and macro uncertainty are collectively suppressing the performance of risk assets. Meanwhile, AI concept stocks and large tech companies continue to attract significant capital inflows, further diverting risk appetite from the crypto market. QCP points out that if BTC cannot regain a foothold in the $67,000 to $68,000 range, the rebound may still face significant selling pressure. The current market is more inclined to purchase downside protection rather than actively increase risk exposure, as investors await a clearer direction from the macro environment between the paths of "soft landing" and "high inflation, high interest rates, low liquidity."

Driven by optimistic expectations for an extended ceasefire agreement between the U.S. and Iran, the U.S. stock and oil markets continued to strengthen this week. The S&P 500 index rose for the ninth consecutive week, setting the longest winning streak since 2023; Brent crude oil stabilized around $92 per barrel. However, the cryptocurrency market failed to follow the rise of macro risk assets. Over the past week, Bitcoin fell 2.6% to $73,445, Ethereum dropped 2.5% to $2,011, Solana decreased by 2.2%, and TRX saw a decline of 5.6%, making it one of the weakest tokens among the top ten cryptocurrencies by market capitalization. Market analysts believe that the cooling inflow of funds into spot Bitcoin ETFs is putting pressure on coin prices.In contrast, some small and mid-cap tokens performed remarkably well. Among them, the native token of Hyperliquid, HYPE, surged 19.4% this week to around $65, becoming the biggest highlight in the market. Previously, Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) CEO Jeffrey Sprecher referred to Hyperliquid as "a bigger opportunity than Nasdaq" at the Bernstein conference, further boosting market sentiment. Additionally, BNB rose 1.9% this week, XRP increased by 0.7%, and DOGE remained basically flat.On the macro level, U.S. President Trump stated that a final decision on the U.S.-Iran ceasefire memorandum is close, but he still insists on Iran abandoning its nuclear program, handing over its enriched uranium stockpile, and opening the Strait of Hormuz. Market participants believe that due to significant differences between the two sides on key issues, the current rebound in risk assets remains relatively fragile, and any negative news regarding the Iran negotiations could trigger a reversal in market sentiment.

Analyst Alicharts stated that if Ethereum's weekly closing price falls below $1850, a downward acceleration will become very likely. Through technical analysis, Alicharts believes that Ethereum's downward support levels will appear at the following targets:• First target: approximately $1560 (mid-term structural support);• Second target: close to $1070, marking the lower boundary of a multi-year range.

CoinShares' latest weekly report shows that digital asset investment products recorded a net outflow of $1.47 billion last week, marking the second consecutive week of negative growth and the third largest single-week outflow in 2026, with a cumulative outflow of $2.54 billion over the two weeks.By asset, Bitcoin saw an outflow of $1.315 billion, the largest single-week outflow in 2026, with year-to-date inflows compressed from $3.9 billion to $2.6 billion; Ethereum experienced an outflow of $223 million, remaining roughly the same as last week; some altcoins still recorded slight inflows, with XRP inflowing $31.8 million, Near inflowing $9 million, and Solana inflowing $7.7 million.By region, the United States dominated the outflow pattern, with a single-week outflow of $1.425 billion; Switzerland, Canada, and Hong Kong saw outflows of $16.2 million, $12.5 million, and $12.2 million respectively, as risk-averse sentiment has spread from localized areas last week to most regions globally. CoinShares pointed out that the aforementioned outflows are closely related to the rising geopolitical risks associated with Iran. Despite the ongoing legislative progress of the CLARITY Act, market risk aversion continues to deepen.

Galaxy Research Director Alex Thorn posted on the X platform, pointing out that this week, spot Bitcoin exchange-traded products (ETPs) continued to experience capital outflows, with a net outflow of $1.2 billion for the week, marking the third worst weekly performance since 2026, reflecting an increase in market risk aversion.Galaxy Research Director Alex Thorn stated on the X platform that spot Bitcoin exchange-traded products experienced continuous capital outflows this week, with a net outflow of $1.2 billion for the week, making it the third worst weekly performance so far in 2026, indicating that market risk aversion is still rising.

According to The Kobeissi Letter, last week, cryptocurrency ETFs saw a total outflow of $1.1 billion, marking the first net outflow in seven weeks and the third-largest single-week outflow in 2026.Among them, Bitcoin ETFs had an outflow of $982 million, while Ethereum ETFs saw an outflow of $249 million. Nevertheless, Bitcoin ETFs have still accumulated a net inflow of $3.9 billion this year.In addition, the total assets under management of cryptocurrency funds decreased by $2 billion to $157 billion. In terms of altcoins, XRP and Solana recorded inflows of $68 million and $55 million, respectively.

CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost tweeted that the realized profits of BTC across the entire market have almost been completely wiped out. Data shows that the current weekly average realized profit is only about $1.7 billion, which is close to the lows seen at the end of the last bear market. When Bitcoin first broke through $72,000 in March 2024, the weekly realized profit exceeded $25 billion, nearly 15 times the current level. Darkfost pointed out that this reflects a significant redistribution of Bitcoin holdings over the past two years.

Famous trader and chart analyst Peter Brandt, who successfully predicted the Bitcoin crash in 2018, shows the SOL weekly chart and states that it has formed a 14-week rectangular pattern. "If it breaks down and continues the pattern, it will confirm a large head and shoulders target price of $43.7."

According to Gate market data, the dollar is heading towards its best week in two months, following U.S. data showing rising inflation pressures that may force the Federal Reserve to consider interest rate hikes within the next year. The dollar index DXY has risen more than 1% this week, expected to achieve its best single-week performance since mid-March. Due to two consecutive inflation data releases this week exceeding expectations, the U.S. Treasury market has been impacted, prompting a Federal Reserve official to state that the U.S. "is facing an inflation problem."