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BTC $75,948.81 -0.24%
ETH $2,339.44 -0.73%
BNB $625.41 -1.31%
XRP $1.44 +0.12%
SOL $86.32 -0.51%
TRX $0.3308 +0.72%
DOGE $0.0953 -0.68%
ADA $0.2492 -0.77%
BCH $441.75 -1.03%
LINK $9.31 -0.70%
HYPE $43.64 -1.07%
AAVE $92.88 -16.51%
SUI $0.9618 -0.50%
XLM $0.1711 +0.41%
ZEC $333.92 +3.04%

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Next week's macro outlook: Focus on US-Iran negotiations and changes in the Federal Reserve personnel, with the Middle East situation repeatedly disturbing the market

According to Jinshi reports, global markets significantly rebounded over the past week driven by expectations of easing tensions in the Middle East, but core uncertainties remain unresolved. Iran once announced the opening of the Strait of Hormuz, leading to a rapid decline in oil prices, a broad strengthening of risk assets, U.S. stocks reaching new highs, a weakening dollar, and gold approaching the $4900 mark. However, Iran subsequently signaled that it "is still under military control," combined with the U.S. maintaining sanctions against Iran, which has heightened market concerns about the volatility of the situation.On the macro level, the biggest variable next week will still be the progress of U.S.-Iran negotiations. U.S. President Trump stated that negotiations may advance over the weekend and warned that if an agreement is not reached by next Wednesday, the ceasefire could end, and there is a risk of renewed conflict; meanwhile, Iran's attitude towards negotiations remains cautious, especially with significant differences on key issues such as uranium enrichment. The market has currently shifted from "pricing in conflict escalation" to "pricing in a path to easing," but any sudden changes could still trigger sharp asset fluctuations.In terms of interest rate expectations, the decline in energy prices has alleviated inflationary pressures, and the market's expectations for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve this year have risen to about 60%. At the same time, Federal Reserve Chair nominee Kevin Warsh will attend a Senate hearing next week, and his policy stance (especially whether it leans dovish) will become an important variable affecting gold and risk assets.On Tuesday at 20:30, U.S. March retail sales month-on-month;On Thursday at 20:30, U.S. initial jobless claims for the week ending April 18;On Thursday at 21:45, U.S. April S&P Global Manufacturing/Services PMI preliminary;On Friday at 22:00, U.S. April University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index final value, one-year inflation expectations final value;In the short term, the market's main focus will revolve around three major variables: progress in U.S.-Iran negotiations, oil price trends, and signals from the Federal Reserve.

"Polymarket launches 'Claude Developer Anthropic Next Round Financing Deadline'"

Polymarket has launched "Claude developer Anthropic's next round of financing deadline," with the current probability reported at 22% before the end of June; and 81% before the end of December. The event contract rules are as follows: if the specified company publicly and officially announces that it has completed the next round of financing before the specified date (Eastern Time), the market will ultimately be determined as "yes." Otherwise, this market will ultimately conclude as "no." A qualified announcement must clearly confirm that the new round of financing has been completed, which can be through the specified company (such as a press release) or official announcements from its investors, regulatory documents, or consensus reported by credible media.Informal announcements, statements from anonymous sources, or leaks do not meet the criteria. If the specified company is unable to complete the new round of financing due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by other entities, the market will be settled as "no." The primary settlement source for this market will be the official announcements from the specified company, as well as official documents from the company, such as SEC filings; however, credible consensus reporting can also be used. According to ChainCatcher, the Odaily Seer prophet channel continues to monitor the prediction market and has seen changes before pricing.

Analysis: Bitcoin approaches $76,000 but market sentiment remains in "extreme fear"

Despite Bitcoin rising to $76,300 at one point this week, market sentiment remains low, with the Fear and Greed Index still in the "extreme fear" range at 21, indicating a clear divergence between price and sentiment. Institutional views suggest that this round of increases is more akin to "valuation repair" rather than a trend reversal. QCP Capital referred to it as a "relief rally," as macro-level inflation, energy, and policy pressures have not fully dissipated.Glassnode pointed out that Bitcoin is still about 5% lower than the key resistance level of the "real market average" at approximately $78,100, and the current rebound has limited depth. The funding structure is also showing divergence. Spot demand and ETF fund flows have warmed up, but profit-taking has increased, and institutional participation remains cautious, with the derivatives market continuing to lean towards downward hedging. Exchange data also shows that demand is more from offshore and retail funds rather than dominated by U.S. institutions. Analysts state that around $75,000 has become a key support/validation level. If subsequent buying cannot sustain, the price may retreat to the range of $70,000 to $71,000.On the macro front, U.S. stocks continue to hit new highs, and oil prices remain high but have not surged further, which has warmed market risk appetite but still carries uncertainty. The market's focus is shifting towards the Federal Reserve's policy path, and the overall environment still poses constraints on crypto assets. In summary, while Bitcoin maintains its rebound, it oscillates near resistance levels, and the market tone remains cautious, with no consistent bullish trend formed yet.

RootData released the sixth issue of the cryptocurrency exchange transparency ranking (stock category), with Gate and Bitget rising to 3rd and 4th place, respectively

Web3 asset data platform RootData released the sixth issue of the "Cryptocurrency Exchange Transparency Ranking (Stock Category)," continuing to focus on the growth trend of stock assets in cryptocurrency exchanges. In this issue, Binance, OKX, Gate, Bitget, and Bybit ranked in the top five.According to the ranking, most cryptocurrency exchanges saw an increase of around 10% in trading volume over the past week, reversing a downward trend that had persisted for several weeks, but the traffic remained mostly flat compared to last week, with no significant signs of rebound.In terms of ranking changes, Gate and Bitget both moved up one position, while Bybit dropped two positions. Bitget launched the first Pre-IPO project SpaceX (SPCX) in this issue, connecting the Pre-IPO product framework with traditional capital markets, enhancing the richness and institutional attributes of its "tradable stock assets," which is an important reason for the score increase this time.It is reported that RootData adheres to the "transparency first" principle and has taken the lead in establishing a dual evaluation system of "transparency + liquidity" in the field of stock cryptocurrency exchanges, thereby providing investors with more effective data references. The ranking will continue to be improved and published in the future.
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