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BTC $68,565.37 -0.68%
ETH $2,013.14 -0.91%
BNB $627.01 +0.36%
XRP $1.41 +0.22%
SOL $84.03 +0.31%
TRX $0.2765 -0.27%
DOGE $0.0927 -0.85%
ADA $0.2627 -0.04%
BCH $529.44 +2.29%
LINK $8.52 -0.88%
HYPE $29.45 -6.50%
AAVE $108.53 -1.94%
SUI $0.9344 -0.83%
XLM $0.1555 -1.24%
ZEC $238.25 +2.76%

yen

Arthur Hayes: If the Federal Reserve expands its balance sheet to intervene in the yen and Japanese government bonds, it will be beneficial for risk assets like Bitcoin

BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes published an in-depth analysis in his latest article regarding the recent depreciation of the yen and the decline in Japanese government bond prices, which has caused "anomalies" in the global market. He believes this indicates that the Federal Reserve and the Treasury may soon collaborate to directly intervene in the yen and Japanese government bond markets through "money printing" to inject new liquidity into the global fiat currency system.Hayes specifically outlined the possible intervention path: the New York Fed creates dollar reserves and instructs primary dealers like JPMorgan to sell dollars and buy yen in the foreign exchange market to support the exchange rate, and may invest the acquired yen in Japanese government bonds to lower their yields. This operation will lead to an expansion of the "foreign currency-denominated assets" item on the Fed's balance sheet, essentially meaning that the Fed is taking on the interest rate risk of the yen exchange rate and Japanese government bonds through money printing.He analyzed the motives and consequences of this move: aimed at stabilizing the yen and lowering Japanese government bond yields to prevent Japanese investors from massively selling U.S. Treasuries, avoiding uncontrolled increases in U.S. Treasury yields, while enhancing the competitiveness of U.S. exports.This process will increase global dollar liquidity and may simultaneously boost the euro and yuan exchange rates. Hayes pointed out that this "non-QE" style of balance sheet expansion will ultimately provide upward momentum for risk assets, including Bitcoin. In terms of trading strategy, he stated that a rapid strengthening of the yen against the dollar is usually a signal for reducing risk assets. Bitcoin's decline due to the strengthening yen means he will not increase his risk exposure until it is confirmed that the Fed is intervening in the yen and Japanese government bond markets by expanding its balance sheet.He has closed positions in leveraged Bitcoin-related assets such as Strategy and Metaplanet, stating that he will re-enter if his judgment proves correct. In the meantime, his fund Maelstrom continues to increase its holdings in Zcash, while positions in other quality DeFi tokens remain unchanged. He indicated that if the Fed indeed expands its balance sheet to intervene in the currency and bond markets, he will increase his holdings in DeFi assets such as ENA, ETHFI, PENDLE, and LDO.
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