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Analysis: The MVRV of long-term Bitcoin holders has risen to 1.35, exiting the shallow pressure zone

CryptoQuant analyst Zizcrypto stated that the adjusted long-term holder (LTH) MVRV metric has recovered from a shallow pressure zone and is currently back in a profitable state. Data shows that the adjusted MVRV for the long-term holder group with a holding period of 6 months to 10 years continued to compress and remained above 1 in April this year. An MVRV of 1 represents the overall breakeven line for this group, with values above 1 indicating unrealized profits and below 1 indicating unrealized losses.Between June and August, this metric fell below 1 five times, reaching a low of approximately 0.94 on June 30, when the BTC price was around $58,500, while the group's realized price benchmark was about $62,000, which is about 6% below the breakeven line. However, Zizcrypto noted that the duration and magnitude of this pressure were limited, with the metric remaining close to 1 and not entering the deep loss phase for long-term holders seen in 2019 and during 2022-2023. As of September 27, the adjusted LTH MVRV has recovered to about 1.35, with the BTC price around $84,500, while the long-term holders' realized price is about $62,700, indicating that the spot price is approximately 35% higher than this cost basis. The long-term holder group with a holding period of 6 months to 10 years has emerged from a shallow pressure phase below 1 and re-entered an overall profitable state, resembling a recovery after a healthy adjustment rather than a deep or prolonged loss cycle.

Garrett Jin: Bitcoin at $80,000 to $82,500 is a key resistance zone, and the short squeeze momentum is hard to sustain

"BTC OG insider whale" agent Garrett Jin analyzed that Bitcoin's recent breakthrough of $70,000 was driven by multiple positive factors, including the expansion of the U.S. Treasury's bond buyback, the SEC's proposed regulatory framework for crypto assets, and the White House crypto summit. The current price has entered a dense area of trapped positions between the latter half of $60,000 and the lower range of $80,000, with the first resistance level showing signs of loosening.Garrett Jin pointed out that over the past two months, a large amount of new holding costs has accumulated in the area just above $60,000, providing bottom support for this breakthrough. Although the short squeeze triggered by short liquidations may push Bitcoin above $80,000 in the short term, the $80,000 to $82,500 range is a key resistance area to watch, and the short squeeze momentum is difficult to sustain in the long term. If effective absorption of chips can occur below $80,000 before the breakthrough, it would be more beneficial for the healthy development of subsequent trends.On the same day, SK Hynix announced the largest stock buyback and cancellation plan in South Korea's history, committing to return at least 50% of the expected free cash flow before 2027 to shareholders. The stock price surged more than 10% at one point, triggering the buyer's circuit breaker mechanism for the KOSPI index. Analysts believe this move can alleviate market concerns about the declining risk appetite for South Korean semiconductor stocks, but it cannot change the cyclical trend of the memory industry itself.
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