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As the first centralized exchange (CEX) to connect with Polymarket, Gate's data shows that in the prediction event "How will the Federal Reserve's April interest rate decision change?", the market estimates the probability of interest rates remaining unchanged at a high of 99%. Currently, the overall sentiment in the macro market is cautious, with most participants expecting to maintain a wait-and-see stance in this month's meeting, awaiting more economic data guidance. Keeping interest rates unchanged helps stabilize market liquidity and risk appetite, and various assets, including stock indices and commodities, are expected to attract investor interest. Gate has a comprehensive layout of traditional asset categories, covering the widest range in the network.In addition, users can directly access the prediction market through the Gate App, entering the Polymarket page from the platform's homepage Alpha and using USDT in their exchange account to participate in event predictions. This integration marks a key step for Gate in the fusion of the crypto trading ecosystem and prediction markets, also bringing users a more open and diverse market participation experience.

According to Jinshi reports, CME's "Fed Watch" shows that the probability of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates by 25 basis points in April is 0.5%, while the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 99.5%. In addition, the probability of the Federal Reserve cumulatively cutting rates by 25 basis points by June is 1.4%, the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 98%, and the probability of cumulatively raising rates by 25 basis points is 0.5%.

According to the official announcement, Binance Futures will launch the MSFT USDT perpetual contract on April 20, 2026, at 13:30 (UTC), the AVGO USDT perpetual contract at 13:40 (UTC), and the BABA USDT perpetual contract at 13:50 (UTC).These contracts track the stock prices of Microsoft (Nasdaq: MSFT), Broadcom (Nasdaq: AVGO), and Alibaba (NYSE: BABA) respectively. The above contracts support up to 10x leverage and multi-asset mode.

Gate, as the first centralized exchange to connect to Polymarket, shows that the probability of a closing market value forecast of over $2 trillion for the SpaceX IPO is about 46%, making it the highest probability option currently.It is reported that Gate has launched the first phase of the Pre-IPOs project, SpaceX (SPCX). The subscription for this phase of SpaceX (SPCX) will be open from April 20, 2026, 18:00 to April 22, 18:00 (UTC+8), supporting participation in both USDT and GUSD. After the subscription is completed, the SPCX asset certificates are expected to be distributed before April 22, 22:00 (UTC+8) and will enter pre-market trading in a 100% unlocked form, with pre-market trading starting at April 24, 18:00 (UTC+8). The total subscription amount is 33,900 SPCX, with a total value of approximately $20.01 million, a unit price of $590, corresponding to an implied valuation of about $1.4 trillion.In terms of participation mechanism, Gate Pre-IPOs adopts "average locked amount per hour" for allocation, emphasizing early participation weight. The minimum participation threshold is 100 USDT, and no handling or custody fees are charged. Gate Pre-IPOs will continue to focus on early participation opportunities for high-quality projects before listing, providing users with a new entry point to access global quality assets.

According to Jinshi News, CME's "Fed Watch" shows that the probability of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates by 25 basis points in April is 1.6%, while the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 98.4%. By June, the probability of a cumulative rate cut of 25 basis points is 0%, the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 98%, and the probability of a cumulative rate increase of 25 basis points is 2%.

Polymarket's latest data shows that the market bets on the probability of BTC reaching $80,000 before May 1 of this year is 32%, the probability of reaching $85,000 is 8%, and the probability of falling to $65,000 is 22%.

Issue 5 of HERMIND has officially launched, with a winning rate of 4.2%, a launch price of 0.133 USDT, a new investment yield of 33%, and an overall fund yield of approximately 1.4%. There is no lock-up period after the asset subscription settlement for this issue, and the funds will be available as spot immediately, allowing users to choose to sell or withdraw instantly.Issue 6 of BABABOOEY will officially open for subscription today at 16:00 and will end on April 17 at 16:00. This issue continues the multi-currency participation mechanism, allowing users to participate in the subscription using JU / USDT / BTC / ETH, with the platform uniformly converting and allocating based on USDT. This round introduces a dynamic winning rate model, where the winning rate increases by 0.2% for every additional 5,000,000 USDT raised. Successfully inviting friends to participate can share a token reward of up to 20% of the final issuance amount.

According to Jinshi reports, CME's "Fed Watch" shows that the probability of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates by 25 basis points in April is 1.6%, while the probability of keeping the rates unchanged is 98.4%. By June, the cumulative probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 1.6%, the probability of keeping the rates unchanged is 96.9%, and the cumulative probability of a 25 basis point rate hike is 1.5%.

According to Jinshi reports, CME's "Fed Watch" shows that the probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged in April is 99%, and the probability of a 25 basis point rate hike is 1%. By June, the cumulative probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 1.5%, the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 97.5%, and the cumulative probability of a 25 basis point rate hike is 1%.

According to Jinshi News, the pricing in the money market shows that the probability of the European Central Bank raising interest rates in April is 50%, while the probability last Friday was about 20%.

According to Jinshi News, CME's "Fed Watch" shows that the probability of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates by 25 basis points in April is 1.6%, while the probability of keeping the rates unchanged is 98.4%. By June, the cumulative probability of a 25 basis point rate cut drops to 0%, the probability of keeping the rates unchanged is 98.2%, and the cumulative probability of a 25 basis point rate hike is 1.8%.

According to CoinDesk, Ron Hammond, the policy head of crypto market maker Wintermute, stated that the legislative process for the U.S. crypto market structure bill, the Clarity Act, is still hindered by multiple factors, with a probability of passing this year at about 30%.The bill aims to clarify the division of responsibilities between the SEC and CFTC in the regulation of digital assets, but the current negotiation progress is uneven, with the timeline repeatedly delayed. The main resistance comes from traditional banking institutions, particularly around the significant disagreements regarding whether stablecoins should offer yields. Compromise proposals have been blocked multiple times, and additionally, the internal divisions within the Democratic Party, as well as issues related to DeFi compliance and anti-money laundering, add uncertainty to the legislation.However, Ron Hammond believes there is still room for the bill to advance, but whether it can be enacted within the year depends on whether key disagreements can be resolved.

According to Jinshi reports, the market expects about a one-third probability that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 25 basis points this year, and bond traders have slightly reduced their bets on rate cuts. Data shows that due to the rise in gasoline prices caused by the Iran war and the acceleration of inflation in the U.S. in March, U.S. Treasury bonds fell slightly after the report was released, with yields on various maturities rising by two to three basis points. Tom di Galoma, Managing Director of Mischler Financial Group, stated that today's CPI data will not support bond prices, and next month's inflation report will bring more trouble to investors and the Federal Reserve.

According to Jinshi News, the CME "Fed Watch" shows that the probability of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates by 25 basis points in April is 1.6%, while the probability of keeping the rates unchanged is 98.4%. By June, the cumulative probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 1.5%, the probability of keeping the rates unchanged is 96.8%, and the cumulative probability of a 25 basis point rate hike is 1.7%.

According to Jinshi News, the CME "FedWatch" shows that the probability of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates by 25 basis points in April is 1.6%, while the probability of keeping the rates unchanged is 98.4%. By June, the cumulative probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 2.1%, the probability of keeping the rates unchanged is 96.3%, and the cumulative probability of a 25 basis point rate hike is 1.5%.

According to Jinshi News, CME's "Fed Watch" shows that the probability of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates by 25 basis points in April is 1.6%, while the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 98.4%. By June, the cumulative probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 1.7%, the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 96.8%, and the cumulative probability of a 25 basis point rate hike is 1.5%.

According to Jinshi News, U.S. federal funds futures generally rose, with the December contract up 14 basis points, indicating a rate cut space of 17 basis points this year.

According to Jinshi reports, CME's "Fed Watch" shows that the probability of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates by 25 basis points in April is 1.6%, while the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 98.4%. By June, the cumulative probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 0%, the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 97.9%, and the cumulative probability of a 25 basis point rate hike is 2.1%.

Bloomberg ETF senior analyst Eric Balchunas posted on the X platform that American "Baby Boomer" investors have quietly invested about $500 million into Bitcoin spot ETFs amid a challenging market environment and frequent macroeconomic headwinds, which has somewhat filled the funding gap since the beginning of the year.However, data shows that the overall net inflow into Bitcoin ETFs is still slightly negative year-to-date, indicating that the market as a whole remains in a wait-and-see stance. The recent round of capital inflow demonstrates some traditional capital's long-term allocation interest in Bitcoin ETFs.

According to reports from the official public account, Alibaba's Qianwen App has completed an upgrade of its "in-depth research" feature, adding a financial analysis module. In collaboration with Tonghuashun, it integrates real-time minute-level market data for over 13,000 stocks and consolidates approximately 1 million financial reports, announcements, and authoritative research reports from listed companies. Users can generate a complete in-depth research report with one click using pre-set analysis instruction templates. The report supports automatic generation of visual charts and can be exported in Word/PDF format.The core technological support for this upgrade is the Qianwen Agentic architecture, which has autonomous planning and execution capabilities. It can interpret user intent, automatically call real-time data, and integrate multi-source information to output conclusions, with all key data clearly indicating the original source.