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Ruisui Bank: Musk's X Money may disrupt the U.S. payment market and impact PayPal

According to a report by The Block, Mizuho Bank research analysts released a report on Thursday stating that the financial feature X Money launched by Elon Musk's X platform has the potential to disrupt the U.S. payment industry, but the cryptocurrency integration plan may face regulatory obstacles.Mizuho analysts Dan Dolev and Andrew Jenkins wrote in a client report that X Money is positioned as the financial infrastructure layer of the X platform, aiming to integrate instant messaging, bank deposits, and commercial transaction functions, similar to the "super app" model of WeChat Pay or Alipay. With 500 to 600 million monthly active users on the X platform and Musk's background as a co-founder of PayPal in the payment industry, X Money has the potential to disrupt the U.S. payment industry.On the regulatory front, the analysts pointed out two major potential obstacles: first, the recent "CRYPTO Act" proposed in New York aims to criminalize unlicensed virtual currency operations in the state, which will raise the compliance threshold for X's future cryptocurrency integration plans; second, the "Clarity Act" may restrict non-bank financial platforms from offering yields to users, potentially hindering X Money's plan to provide users with an annualized yield of 6% on cash balances, with analysts stating that the timing for the launch of this yield product is "particularly sensitive."Mizuho also downgraded PayPal (PYPL) stock rating to "neutral," noting that PayPal and its Venmo app face the most direct substitution risk, as X is targeting the same peer-to-peer transfer and digital wallet entry points.This week, the X platform also launched a new feature called "Cashtags," allowing users to view financial data for stocks and cryptocurrencies directly in their timeline.

JPMorgan warns: Stablecoins may become tools for regulatory arbitrage and need to be included in a bank-level regulatory framework

JPMorgan CFO Jeremy Barnum stated during the earnings call that if regulatory rules are not aligned with traditional bank deposits, stablecoins may evolve into a "regulatory arbitrage" tool. He pointed out that some stablecoin models already exhibit deposit-like characteristics, such as providing incentives similar to yields, but are not subject to banking regulatory requirements like capital, liquidity, and consumer protection, which could create an unfair competitive environment. "If the same products are not regulated equally, it will open up arbitrage opportunities," Barnum said.Currently, U.S. legislation is pushing for a cryptocurrency regulatory framework, including the Clarity Act, to clarify the regulatory division of labor between the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, and to regulate the development of the stablecoin market. Additionally, whether to allow stablecoins to distribute reserve earnings to users has become a point of contention. Cryptocurrency companies, including Coinbase, support "interest-bearing stablecoins," while banks believe this would bring them closer to deposit products but lack corresponding regulatory constraints. JPMorgan expressed support for regulatory clarity but emphasized that "regulatory consistency" takes precedence over speed. At the same time, the bank is advancing product layouts, including JPM Coin and tokenized deposits, through its blockchain division Kinexys to modernize the payment system.
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