bears

According to Arkham monitoring, on the eve of SpaceX (SPCX) going live, there is already $276 million in funds betting on its price direction.On the bullish side, one address (0x9cc) is long $33.8 million; another address (0x4e2) is long $6.4 million; another address (0x932, associated with "bd420") is long $4.1 million; another address (0xf47) is long $3.2 million; qianbaidu.eth is long $2.1 million.On the bearish side, one address (0x051, predicted to be Dunamis Trading) is short $7.9 million; another address (0x012, associated with "wenyu888888") is short $6.7 million; another address (0x69c) is short $6.6 million; VBVIT on Poly/HL is short $6.3 million; another address (0x60a) is short $6 million.

According to CoinDesk, Bitcoin is currently fluctuating around $70,000, and the overall performance of the cryptocurrency market remains resilient. Meanwhile, mainstream crypto assets like Ethereum, XRP, and Solana are also relatively stable. The key for the market in the short term is whether Bitcoin can hold the important support level of $70,000.This position has now become a dividing line for bulls and bears and has been defended multiple times by "bottom-fishing funds." If it effectively breaks down, the price volatility of Bitcoin may increase due to thin liquidity below. However, if it can stabilize, the market is expected to quickly recover stability. Some viewpoints suggest that with support from capital flows and macro factors, Bitcoin still has the potential to rise to $88,000.Overall, although Bitcoin's price performance is solid, speculative behavior and negative events may suppress market risk appetite in the short term.

According to Cointelegraph, Bitcoin rose about 2% in March, ending a consecutive five-month decline, marking the first positive turn after the longest consecutive decline since 2018, with the market focusing on trend reversal signals. Historical data shows that similar rebounds often accompany strong recoveries after several months of decline.In 2019, there was an approximately 300% increase after consecutive declines, and some analysts believe that this round may have found a temporary bottom around the $60,000 mark. However, seasonal patterns indicate discrepancies in April's performance: since 2013, April has mostly seen gains, but in recent years, after a rise in March, the probability of a decline in April has increased, leaving short-term direction uncertain.In terms of price, BTC is currently trading around $68,000, with a key resistance zone between $69,000 and $70,000 above. Further up, attention is on the supply zone between $70,000 and $72,000. If it breaks through effectively, it may test $76,000 or even $80,000; conversely, if it faces pressure, the market may continue its oscillating pattern.

A typical case was recently disclosed by the Zhangqiao District Court in Jinan City, Shandong Province, China: Liu entrusted his friend Zhang to invest in "Alpha Coin," with the platform showing daily earnings of hundreds of yuan. After the investment, the platform became inaccessible, and Zhang informed Liu that the platform's person in charge had been filed for criminal charges. Liu sued Zhang for the return of the investment.After hearing the case, the court concluded: investing in virtual currency disrupts financial order and endangers financial security; therefore, the entrusted contract in this case is invalid. Zhang did not profit from the entrusted action, and the investment loss is a risk associated with engaging in illegal financial activities, which should be borne by Liu. The judge reminded that the announcement by seven departments in 2017 and the notice by ten departments in 2021 clearly state that activities related to virtual currency are illegal financial activities, and investment losses are not protected by law. Even if operated by others on behalf of someone, as long as the essence is participating in virtual currency trading, it is also not protected by law.

Cryptanalysis expert Murphy stated, "Using 10y_RP as the historical average turnover cost of Bitcoin is more effective for judging market sentiment. When the price approaches 10y_RP (around $64,500), it often nears the psychological limit of the market. BTC has repeatedly fallen below this level and then regained it, showing a strong resistance willingness from bulls at this sensitive price point, unlike the rapid decline seen when approaching STH-RP previously.The current greatest uncertainty in the market still comes from the geopolitical conflict between the U.S. and Iran. As key events unfold, attention should be paid to the scope and duration of the conflict and its impact on oil prices. However, at least over the weekend, with a lack of significant participation from institutions and market makers, the bearish forces are insufficient to push BTC quickly below the $60,000 mark. This judgment still needs to be further validated after the U.S. stock market opens next week. If the trend is confirmed, the previous analysis logic regarding "how far this rebound can go" and key resistance levels will still hold."

CryptoQuant analysis indicates that Bitcoin's current price is hovering in the $62,000 - $68,000 range, with the funding rate in the futures market remaining in negative territory, suggesting that bearish sentiment is dominating the market. This is different from the previous bottom around $80,000, where the funding rate mostly stayed positive.Since 2025, the dominant force in the market has been selling pressure, with buy orders only used to absorb supply. The current selling pressure has reached its highest level in three months. Notably, the futures market has maintained a high leverage state for 16 consecutive months, and excessive leverage has been decreasing since Bitcoin's last historical peak. Analysts point out that while the price drop has forced some investors to liquidate, it has actually improved the market's leverage health, which is a positive signal in the long run.

According to monitoring by HyperInsight and Coinglass, the market is experiencing significant volatility. Influenced by a sudden increase of 2.3% in BTC and nearly 5% in ETH at 3 AM today, multiple cryptocurrencies on Hyperliquid faced large-scale liquidations, with the largest short whale "Air Force Commander" (0xd83) encountering a total liquidation amount of $199 million. The largest single liquidation was $40.22 million, marking the largest single liquidation in nearly 24 hours across the network.This address had significantly rolled over short positions in ETH, XRP, and several other cryptocurrencies yesterday, with total holdings nearing $500 million at one point, and simultaneously became the largest short in multiple cryptocurrencies including BTC, ETH, PEPE, and XRP on-chain. Due to its use of a full-margin shared collateral model, related operations significantly lowered the liquidation prices of multiple cryptocurrencies. Around 3:30 AM this morning, the address faced dozens of liquidations across five cryptocurrency positions. In the past few hours, this whale has once again replenished its short positions in multiple cryptocurrencies. The specific liquidation and holding information is as follows:BTC short: Liquidation amount reached 400 coins, approximately $36.04 million, current holding size about $145 million, liquidation price $90,990;ETH short: Largest single liquidation of 13,288 coins, totaling 40,640 coins, approximately $123 million, current holding size about $96.1 million, liquidation price $3,073;PEPE short: Liquidation amount approximately $7.41 million; current holding size about $13.3 million, liquidation price $0.00579;XRP short: Liquidation amount reached 14.88 million coins, approximately $29.07 million, fully liquidated;HYPE short: Liquidation amount reached 185,700 coins, approximately $4.01 million; current holding size about $13.11 million, liquidation price $24.64;

According to Coinbob's popular address monitoring, the ZEC price briefly dropped by 6.4%, hitting a low of $449 before rebounding to around $465. During this fluctuation, the largest long whale on Hyperliquid (0x152) saw its position shift from profit to loss, and then decisively increased its position near $459, adding 2,486 ZEC (approximately $1.14 million) within 10 minutes. Over the past 20 hours, it has cumulatively increased its long position by 9,871 ZEC (approximately $4.54 million). Currently, this whale holds a 10x leveraged long position in ZEC, with a scale of about $12.35 million and an average price of $463.Additionally, Coinbob monitoring shows that the "largest short" whale in ZEC is still at a floating loss and has not adjusted its ZEC short position recently, with a current position size of about $17.48 million and an average price of $419, resulting in a floating loss of $1.64 million (47%). Meanwhile, the "altcoin short army leader" has been continuously increasing its ZEC short position over the past few hours, currently raising its ZEC short position size to $2.08 million and is still continuing to add to it.

Liquid Capital (formerly LD Capital) founder Yi Lihua stated that after ten years in the crypto industry, he has encountered significant setbacks in both secondary market false tops and primary investments. It is precisely because of these experiences and the tuition paid that he has realized the true core of the crypto field is to continuously enhance the understanding of investment and trading, to firmly believe in trend investing, to ignore short-term fluctuations, to be greedy when others are fearful, and to be fearful when others are greedy.Recently, the bears are making their last efforts, betting on a four-year cycle, the AI bubble in the US stock market, and declining liquidity in 1011. However, all of this has failed, and all their short positions will become fuel for a short squeeze when the market rises. In the end, I hope everyone focuses on the research of investment and trading, respects all professional investment research analysts, as this is the real business and the right path to focus on. Liquid Capital will also closely monitor true masters and continue to strive for learning and improvement.

According to Coinbob's popular address monitoring, in the past 4 hours, the "Ultimate Short" has once again closed a BTC short position worth approximately 5.13 million USD, recording a profit of about 1.49 million USD. Since the beginning of this month, it has cumulatively closed BTC short positions worth approximately 39.5 million USD.The current BTC short position size is about 55.36 million USD, with an unrealized profit of 16.08 million USD (581%), an average price of 111,500 USD, and a liquidation price of 99,300 USD. In addition, it has also newly opened a long position in the XYZ underlying with a 100x mapped contract, with a position size of about 1 million USD. The "Ultimate Short" whale has accurately bought low and sold high multiple times since opening this BTC short position on May 9.It is worth noting that since November, its operational rhythm has significantly changed, shifting to continuously closing positions for profit at local lows, without re-entering. From November to now, it has executed this type of closing 4 times in a row, and compared to its position peak in August, the current short position size has been reduced by approximately 99 million USD.According to records from the past 4 months, its closing points are as follows: closed BTC around 112,500 USD on August 19-20; closed BTC around 108,300 USD on August 30; closed ETH around 4,160 USD on September 22; closed BTC around 100,000---110,000 USD on October 11; closed BTC around 87,000 USD on November 25.

The market research firm BCA Research, led by well-known Wall Street bear Peter Berezin, has released a new report titled "Return of Nasdog," offering a cautious outlook on the market. Its core viewpoint is that the artificial intelligence boom will come to an end, while U.S. economic activity will significantly slow down.BCA Research states that the issue of excessive investment in the AI sector should have already manifested, with investments in the U.S. technology and software sectors reaching 4.4% of GDP by 2025, close to the levels seen during the internet bubble. Given that the annual depreciation rate for AI assets is typically around 20%, this means that tech giants will face an annual depreciation cost of $400 billion, which exceeds their total profits for 2025.BCA Research also mentions that the expected price-to-earnings ratio for the S&P 500 index at the beginning of 2026 will be as high as 22.6 times, well above the historical median of 18 times. The already fragile stock market will find it even harder to sustain itself under the impact of the collapse of the optimistic narrative surrounding AI. BCA Research predicts that "in the second half of 2026, nearly all sectors of the U.S. stock market will experience a crash." However, this will also prompt the Federal Reserve to accelerate its rate cuts in the second half of 2026, with the federal funds rate expected to drop to 2.25% by the end of 2026, and the yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds falling to 3.1%.

According to HyperInsight monitoring analysis, among the 26 whales on Hyperliquid with BTC holdings exceeding 20 million USD, there are 12 long positions and 14 short positions. All long positions are experiencing varying degrees of unrealized losses (ranging from approximately -14% to -870%), while all short positions are seeing varying degrees of unrealized gains (ranging from approximately 14% to 647%).In addition, according to incomplete statistics, the stop-loss/stop-gain ranges for the aforementioned whales are as follows (excluding extreme values and excess margin addresses):Long positions:Stop-loss order range: 82,000 USD --- 89,000 USD;Liquidation range: 74,100 USD --- 84,900 USD, average 79,300 USD;Average holding price: 102,190 USDShort positions:Take-profit order range: 75,000 USD --- 89,000 USD;Liquidation range: 98,000 USD --- 136,000 USD, average 116,000 USD;Average holding price: 104,920 USDAdditionally, according to Coinglass data, if BTC rises to 92,800 USD, the total network short liquidation intensity will reach 475 million USD; if BTC falls to 89,480 USD, the total network long liquidation intensity will reach 873 million USD.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, at 20:30 Beijing time on September 26, the Fed's favorite inflation indicator ------ PCE data will be released, and every detail of the report will be scrutinized by the market. Gold has been hovering at high levels this week, and a showdown between bulls and bears is about to unfold. Investors need to pay attention to potential risks.

ChainCatcher message, Matrixport released today's chart analysis stating, "The market trend has shown a noteworthy anomaly: Bitcoin's price has increased by nearly 25%, while the open interest has risen from $22 billion to $29 billion, yet the funding rate remains close to zero. This reflects that, despite the price increase, some futures traders still choose to establish short positions rather than chase the rally.This rare market structure may indicate that the market is about to experience greater volatility: if the price continues to rise, shorts may be forced to cover, accelerating the upward trend; if the price corrects, it may reinforce the current short position layout. Regardless of how the trend evolves, the current market structure points to an increase in future volatility."

ChainCatcher message, analysts indicate that the bearish flattening pressure on U.S. Treasuries remains due to the market lowering expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut. Eugene Leow, an analyst at DBS Group, commented that as the two-year U.S. Treasury yield recently surged, people have reduced their bets on a Federal Reserve rate cut. This veteran interest rate strategist stated, "Meanwhile, as market dysfunction has eased somewhat, the rapid sell-off of long-term U.S. Treasuries has also cooled." Bearish flattening typically refers to a situation where, due to expectations of tighter monetary policy, short-term yields rise faster than long-term yields.

ChainCatcher news, according to CoinDesk, the cryptocurrency market experienced a brief euphoria following the Federal Reserve's FOMC meeting, only to fall back into profit-taking. Bitcoin retreated from a high of $86,000 to below $84,000, with a 24-hour decline of over 3%, while Ethereum fell below the psychological level of $2,000. Despite the overall pressure on the market, options traders remain optimistic about the mid-term outlook, with the probability of Bitcoin breaking $100,000 by the end of June rising from 20% to nearly 30% within 24 hours.The Federal Reserve maintained interest rates and announced a reduction in quantitative tightening (QT) in April, interpreted as a signal of de facto easing, which pushed Bitcoin to briefly surpass $85,000. BNB rose 8% during the week, showing strength against the trend, while XRP's weekly increase narrowed to 4.8%. The options market showed divergence, with Ethereum call options accounting for 60%, indicating a rise in bottom-fishing sentiment; 34% of Bitcoin options volume was used for downside protection, intensifying the long-short battle. After a brief euphoria, the market returned to rationality, with $80,000 becoming a key short-term support level for Bitcoin, focusing the new round of long-short contention. The optimistic expectations in the options market and the cautious sentiment in the spot market create a delicate balance, with a breakout from the moving average pressure potentially becoming the key to a trend reversal.