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According to CoinDesk, Glassnode's Bitcoin on-chain metric RHODL ratio is currently at 4.5, which is the third highest level on record, and the signals it emits are more aligned with a market bottom rather than a cycle top.The RHODL ratio compares the value of Bitcoin held by long-term holders (holding for 6 months to 3 years) to that held by short-term holders (holding for 1 day to 3 months). An increase in the ratio typically reflects a longer holding period for chips and reduced speculative activity, rather than an influx of new buyers—this dynamic has occurred after significant corrections in 2015, 2019, and 2022. During the 50% drop in Bitcoin over the past six months, young speculative chips have been largely washed out, concentrating wealth among long-term holders.Historically, the RHODL ratio has only been higher than the current level twice: in 2015 (ratio of 5) and in 2022 (ratio of 7), both corresponding to cycle bottoms, which suggests that Bitcoin may still have further downside potential. However, to push the ratio to higher levels, it typically requires the activity of short-term holders to be nearly exhausted, and this condition is not yet evident under current circumstances—Bitcoin has rebounded about 25% from its February low, perpetual contract funding rates remain negative, and the S&P 500 has also reached an all-time high.Overall, this indicator suggests that the current market conditions are closer to an adjustment within the cycle rather than a cycle top formation, and the re-dominance of long-term holders in the market may indicate that a phase bottom is approaching.

CoinDesk analyst James Van Straten stated that the Bitcoin funding rate has fallen to its lowest level since 2023, and historical patterns show that such signals often coincide with market bottoms. According to Glassnode data, the seven-day moving average of the funding rate has dropped to about -0.005%.The funding rate is the fee that long and short positions pay each other periodically in perpetual contracts to keep the contract price aligned with the spot market. When the rate is positive, longs pay shorts, reflecting bullish market sentiment; when the rate is negative, shorts pay longs, indicating a bearish market. Despite the funding rate being persistently negative from March to April this year, Bitcoin still oscillated upward from the $60,000 to $65,000 range to about $75,000. Historically, a deeply negative funding rate often coincides with Bitcoin's phase bottoms: during the market crash triggered by the COVID-19 pandemic in March 2020, Bitcoin fell to about $3,000; it dropped to $30,000 during China's mining ban announcement in 2021; it hit a low of about $15,000 during the FTX collapse in November 2022; and it briefly fell below $20,000 during the Silicon Valley Bank crisis in 2023. During the yen arbitrage trade closure in August 2024 and the "Liberation Day" sell-off in April 2025, negative funding rates also appeared alongside phase lows. The continued negative funding rate indicates that even if the price trend is positive, short positions remain at a high level. This divergence may suggest that the market is climbing within a "wall of worry," and a large number of short positions could become fuel for further price increases.

Bitmine Chairman Tom Lee stated on the X platform that despite the overall market still exhibiting strong skepticism, more and more signs indicate that the current market "has found its bottom." In a highly uncertain environment, investors can focus on assets that have performed well since the Iran conflict, with Ethereum-related assets leading the way, followed by Bitcoin-related assets.Specifically, Tom Lee lists Ethereum and related assets (such as ETHA, BMNR) as his top choices, while also being optimistic about Bitcoin and its ETFs (such as IBIT). He previously emphasized that Ethereum has shown relative strength during geopolitical conflicts, becoming a "barometer" of market resilience.Overall, Tom Lee believes that cryptocurrencies have proven to be a "store of value in wartime," and the market has gradually digested negative factors, providing a basis for further rebounds in risk assets, but this still depends on the continued stability of macro and geopolitical situations.

Due to Trump's announcement of a two-week temporary ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran, market risk sentiment quickly rebounded, and the three major U.S. stock indices saw a significant rebound. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose more than 1300 points in a single day, marking its best performance in nearly a year; WTI crude oil futures, on the other hand, plummeted over 16%.Tom Lee, head of research at Fundstrat, stated that the current market has confirmed a phase bottom and is moving back toward historical highs. He pointed out that despite the previous surge in oil prices and escalation of conflicts, the stock market did not show a significant decline, indicating strong market resilience, while the ceasefire has become a catalyst for sentiment reversal.He expects that the S&P 500 index may rise to 7300 points within the year, which still has about 7.6% upside potential from the current level, and is optimistic about the subsequent performance of technology stocks, software, energy, and financial sectors. Among them, the "seven tech giants" are seen as the core driving force behind this round of rebound.Several institutional investors also believe that as geopolitical risks ease and oil prices fall, the market has entered a "relief rebound" phase, combined with the approaching earnings season, making the current time a potential window for buying on dips.

According to market news, Strategy founder Michael Saylor stated that Bitcoin likely bottomed around $60,000 in early February, when forced sellers were cleared from the market. The bottom is more determined by seller exhaustion rather than valuation. He believes that current selling pressure is limited, ETF inflows are absorbing daily supply, and corporate allocation of financial assets to Bitcoin is also creating sustained demand.Michael Saylor predicts that the catalyst for the next bull market will be the establishment of a banking credit and digital credit system built on Bitcoin, which will transform Bitcoin from a non-yielding asset into a capital market engine. Regarding the recently discussed threat of quantum computing, he believes the risks are exaggerated, and quantum threats remain theoretical and are likely to emerge decades later. By then, there will also be solutions. Mizuho maintains an outperform rating on Strategy with a target price of $320, which offers about 150% upside from the current stock price of $127.

Liquid Capital (formerly LD Capital) founder Yi Lihua stated on social media, "The war is confirmed to be over, there is no insider information, and neither side has a reason to continue fighting. We will take profits wherever the rebound stops and observe as we go.This year's cryptocurrency market is very similar to 2019, with a cliff-like drop in secondary liquidity, almost no confidence in primary investments, and Web3 companies laying off large numbers of employees, with industry personnel switching careers. Be greedy when others are fearful; this year is definitely the best time for secondary bottom-fishing and primary investment, similar to 2019. Institutions that bottomed out in the secondary market and invested in the primary market in 2019 were the biggest winners in the 2020 bull market, and we are working hard to do these two things well."

Analyst Alicharts updates multiple long-term bottom indicator signals for Bitcoin to reference Bitcoin's bottom points.Key support levels include around $63,111 shown by URPD, the trend line guarding for nearly 10 years at $56,000-$60,000, the structural bottom of CVDD at $47,960, and the extreme pain zone of MVRV at $43,647. Alicharts suggests that investors diversify funds into areas between $63,000 and $36,000, rather than precisely predicting a single bottom. Currently, the market is mostly in a wait-and-see or distribution phase, suitable for macro rebound layouts.

According to market news, Bitcoin (BTC) closed up 1.8%, ending a five-month decline since 2025, but faced a new round of volatility at the beginning of April, dropping to $67,630 during the Asian morning session.Although April has historically been a strong month for BTC (with an average historical increase of 12.1%), the market has continued to deviate from seasonal patterns since the end of 2025. Regarding macro and geopolitical uncertainties, Binance Research pointed out that if clear signals of a ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran emerge, it could boost the crypto market for further recovery.On the technical side, some analysts believe that the current macro environment closely resembles the market structure before the significant BTC rises in 2016 and 2020. However, Alphractal's CEO and CryptoQuant models both indicate that the current bottom may appear between September and November 2026, at which point there is a possibility of prices falling below $40,000.

According to CoinDesk, the gap between Bitcoin's spot price and its realized price (the average cost basis of all on-chain tokens weighted by their last transaction time) is narrowing, approaching the levels seen at the bottoms of past cycles. However, on-chain data shows that the market has not yet experienced a typical capitulation sell-off. Currently, Bitcoin's realized price is about $54,286, the spot price is about $68,774, and the premium is about 21%. The bottom signal of the 2022 bear market was when the spot price fell below the realized price, which occurred when the spot was about 15% lower than the realized price at the cycle low.The current 21% premium indicates that the average holder is still in profit. To reach the realized price, Bitcoin would need to drop about 20% to $54,000. Notably, the speed of the premium's contraction, from about 120% at the end of 2024 to 21% after 15 months, is the fastest approach to the realized price line outside of a market crash.Other on-chain signals also indicate that the market has not completed its reset: the Coinbase premium index has returned to negative values, suggesting weakened institutional demand. Analysts believe that although Bitcoin has maintained a range of $65,000 to $70,000 for five weeks, the inflow of over $1 billion into ETFs in March shows there are buyers, but the market has not yet gone through the painful process that historically marks a bottom.

Tom Lee stated in an interview with CNBC: "I believe the market has absorbed 90% to 95% of the selling pressure, and the selling process may have ended. We can now start to rebuild the bottom. We must recognize that in a war environment, the stock market often hits bottom early. We have studied every war since 1900, and the stock market tends to bottom out within the first 10% of the war process. So, if this follows the same pattern, we are currently in the early stages of that process.At this stage, any bad news can trigger people to de-risk. But you also know that this is why positions are worth paying attention to, because at some point, when people become overly neutral, even if the situation is not that bad, the market could see a V-shaped rebound."Tom Lee also added on social media that even if the "bottom" has not yet been reached, he believes the U.S. economy can withstand $100, or even $120, oil.

CryptoQuant analyst Crypto Dan stated that the Bitcoin long-term holder SOPR (Spent Output Profit Ratio) has fallen below 1, indicating that even long-term investors are selling at a loss.Since long-term holders are the group least sensitive to short-term fluctuations, when they start realizing losses, it can be interpreted as a broader capitulation occurring in the entire market. At this point, short-term holders are likely to have already exited the market or have suffered significant losses.In other words, most participants in the market are in a state of loss. Historically, this situation often leads to a gradual exhaustion of selling pressure, forming a market bottom or an area close to a long-term low. While it may still be too early to determine that the current market is the absolute bottom, when losses become widespread, it often represents the final stage of fear sentiment and the beginning of opportunity.

According to Binance spot data, the market has experienced significant fluctuations. NOM has risen by 50.66% in 24 hours, while FET and SANTOS have increased by 11.56% and 10.78% respectively, both showing a rebound after hitting lows.At the same time, AUDIO has shown a "high and then low" state, with a 24-hour decline of 7.33%. CFX and GTC have both reached new lows today, with declines of 6.98% and 5.07%. USUAL has slightly decreased by 3.2% within 5 minutes, while SENT has slightly increased by 3.1% during the same period.

According to on-chain analyst @MorenoDV_ in a post on CryptoQuant, the long-term holders (LTH) of BTC are approaching a critical turning point in their adjusted net unrealized profit (NUPL), but the market bottom signal has not yet been triggered.Since the peak on October 6, 2025, LTH profitability has sharply compressed from 58% to 3% over 142 days, reflecting a significant deterioration in investor sentiment and holding structure. However, LTH-NUPL is currently still slightly above zero and has not entered the comprehensive liquidation range necessary for historically forming a market bottom.Analysts point out that true market bottoms in history have formed after LTH holdings have fully turned into losses. The current environment is closer to the late-cycle pressure phase rather than complete liquidation. It is recommended to focus on signals where LTH-NUPL continues to fall below zero, accompanied by long-term compression of price and volatility, as this condition has historically been highly correlated with asymmetric entry opportunities.

Crypto analyst Willy Woo stated that some traditional on-chain models indicate that the bottom for BTC is roughly between $46,000 and $54,000, while also suggesting that there may be a need to wait longer.The scale of capital stored in BTC has been flowing out since November. However, it is important to note that these models also have limitations. These models are based on historical behavior, and there have only been 4 bear markets in Bitcoin's history, all occurring against the backdrop of a long-term bull market for risk assets. If this foundation is broken, we may enter unknown territory (a deeper bear market). Finally, I personally believe that due to the potential collapse of the long-term bull market structure at the global macro level, the probability of a deeper bear market is quite high.

According to Onchain Lens monitoring, a whale address purchased 5,039 ETH for approximately 10 million dollars. Currently, this address holds a total of 138,234 ETH, valued at about 274 million dollars, while having an outstanding loan position of approximately 142.3 million dollars.

On-chain analyst Willy Woo pointed out that traditional on-chain models indicate that the current bottom range for Bitcoin is expected to be between $46,000 and $54,000.Data shows that Bitcoin storage funds have been continuously flowing out since last year, while the cumulative value days destroyed (CVDD) bottom model currently reads $45,500, which has the characteristic of continuously increasing in value over time.

According to market news, after Bitcoin pulled back from $76,000, the Overall Liquidity indicator and the ALT Resilient Index showed a significant resonance in the 65K--66K range. Historical data shows that such resonance often corresponds to the formation of short-term bottoms, indicating conditions for a rebound.