cme

According to Jinshi reports, CME's "Fed Watch" shows that the probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged in April is 99%, and the probability of a 25 basis point rate hike is 1%. By June, the cumulative probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 1.5%, the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 97.5%, and the cumulative probability of a 25 basis point rate hike is 1%.

The Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) Bitcoin futures market continues to weaken. Data shows that the average daily open interest (OI) in March 2026 has fallen below $8 billion, further dropping to about $7.2 billion in early April, marking a new low since February 2024, and it has declined for the fifth consecutive month. Meanwhile, the monthly trading volume in March fell to $163 billion, nearly halving from the peak of January 2025.Market analysis indicates that this round of decline is primarily due to large-scale liquidations of "basis trades." Previously, institutions profited from price differences by buying spot ETFs and shorting CME futures, which was the core driving force behind the growth of CME positions. However, as Bitcoin prices have retreated from a high of $120,000 to below $70,000, the annualized basis yield has significantly compressed. Currently, the basis yield of about 5% is close to the risk-free interest rate level of about 4.5%. When factoring in funding costs and counterparty risks, the arbitrage space has essentially disappeared, prompting leveraged funds to withdraw.

According to BBX data, based on official market announcements and corporate regulatory documents, the latest developments in the compliance infrastructure of global brokerage giants and the financial strategies of mining companies are as follows:Charles Schwab clarifies the spot trading timetable: The Charles Schwab Corporation (NYSE: $SCHW) President and CEO Rick Wurster officially confirmed in a letter to shareholders this Monday that Charles Schwab will launch spot trading services for Bitcoin and Ethereum in the first half of 2026. The plan will undergo a limited rollout in the second quarter (Q2), followed by a full expansion to its large customer base.CME derivatives compliance expansion: CME Group Inc. (NASDAQ: $CME) announced that, given the record average daily nominal trading volume of $8 billion for its crypto derivatives in March this year, the company has decided to further enhance its crypto strategy by officially launching futures contracts for Avalanche (AVAX) and Sui (SUI) on May 4, including standard and micro versions.Core Scientific plans to fully liquidate Bitcoin reserves: Core Scientific, Inc. (NASDAQ: $CORZ) in its latest 10-K annual and quarterly regulatory filings provided Wall Street with extremely clear guidance: during 2026, the company expects to "substantially monetize all" of its Bitcoin reserves to enhance liquidity and fund planned capital expenditures. This means the company will completely transform into a spot seller, liquidating its digital treasury to purchase the hardware needed for AI transformation.

CME Group announced plans to launch futures contracts for Avalanche (AVAX) and Sui (SUI), further enriching its regulated cryptocurrency derivatives product line, and is currently awaiting approval from regulatory authorities. Market participants can choose between mini contracts or standard contracts: 1. AVAX futures: 5,000 AVAX, mini AVAX futures: 500 AVAX; 2. SUI futures: 50,000 SUI, mini SUI futures: 5,000 SUI.

According to PR Newswire, the derivatives market CME Group announced that the average daily trading volume of cryptocurrency contracts in March reached 210,000 contracts, with a nominal value of $7.98 billion, an increase of 19%. Among them, the average daily trading volume of micro Bitcoin futures increased by 6%, reaching 77,000 contracts; the average daily trading volume of Ethereum futures increased by 53%, reaching 19,000 contracts.In addition, the overall average daily trading volume of contracts on the CME platform in March reached 41.1 million contracts, setting a monthly record with a year-on-year increase of 33%; the average daily trading volume in the first quarter reached 36.2 million contracts, setting a quarterly record with a year-on-year increase of 22%.

According to Bloomberg, the Bank of Montreal (BMO) announced the launch of tokenized cash and deposit services for institutional clients through the network of the largest derivatives exchange in the U.S., CME Group. This service allows clients to bypass traditional banking hours and achieve continuous fund transfers around the clock. Derek Vernon, Head of North American Treasury and Payment Solutions at the Bank of Montreal, stated, "Clients will be able to transfer funds whenever the market demands, rather than being restricted by banking hours."

According to Jinshi reports, the CME "FedWatch" shows that the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in April is 0%, and the probability of maintaining the interest rate is 100%. By June, the cumulative probability of a 25 basis point cut is 11.2%, while the probability of maintaining the interest rate is 88.8%. By July, the probability of maintaining the interest rate is 77.4%.

According to Jinshi reports, the CME "FedWatch" shows that the probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged until April is 96.9% (consistent with before the decision), the probability of a cumulative rate cut of 25 basis points is 2% (consistent with before the decision), and the probability of a rate hike of 25 basis points is 1% (consistent with before the decision). By June, the probability of a cumulative rate cut of 25 basis points is 14.4% (was 16.3% before the decision), the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 84.4% (was 82.5% before the decision), and the probability of a rate hike of 25 basis points is 0.9% (consistent with before the decision).

According to Jinshi reports, the CME "Fed Watch" shows that the probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates this week is 98.9%, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 0%, and the probability of a 25 basis point rate hike is 1.1%. By April, the cumulative probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 3.1%, the probability of maintaining interest rates is 95.9%, and the probability of a 25 basis point rate hike is 1.1%. By June, the cumulative probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 78.1%.

The derivatives market Chicago Mercantile Exchange Group (CME Group) announced that the average daily trading volume of cryptocurrency contracts in February reached 322,000 contracts, with a notional value of $9.3 billion, an increase of 45%. Among them, the average daily contract volume of micro Ethereum futures increased by 22%, reaching 115,000 contracts; the average daily contract trading volume of micro Bitcoin futures increased by 31%, reaching 100,000 contracts; the average daily contract volume of Ethereum futures increased by 65%, reaching 24,000 contracts.

According to Cointelegraph, former Credit Suisse Chief Investment Officer Iggy Ioppe stated that during the period when CME Group's gold futures closed on Friday at 5:00 PM (Eastern Time) and reopened on Sunday at 6:00 PM, nearly all publicly visible gold price formation occurred in the on-chain market.He pointed out that during this time window, the regulated futures market was paused, and while there was some activity in the over-the-counter (OTC) market in Asia, it was not publicly transparent. Therefore, tokenized gold assets such as PAX Gold (PAXG) and Tether Gold (XAUt) became the only continuously tradable public market."From the perspective of publicly visible price formation, the on-chain market accounted for almost 100% of weekend price discovery." When CME resumes trading, futures prices typically align with the fluctuations that have occurred in the on-chain market.Data shows that the market capitalization of tokenized gold has risen to $4.4 billion, with approximately $2.8 billion added in the past year, an increase of 177%, far exceeding the performance of most spot gold ETFs. The total trading volume for 2025 is about $178 billion, with a peak of over $126 billion in the fourth quarter alone, making it second only to SPDR Gold Shares in terms of trading volume.On Saturday, amid airstrikes by the U.S. against Iran and escalating geopolitical tensions, tokenized gold briefly rose, with XAUt surpassing $5,450 and PAXG nearing $5,536, while Bitcoin and Ethereum fell in tandem.Current major participants include market makers, cross-market liquidity providers, and crypto-native macro traders who use tokenized gold for arbitrage, collateral, hedging, and yield strategies. Some institutions also monitor weekend on-chain gold trends to assess the "gap risk" before CME opens, but they often regard it as a reference signal rather than a direct basis for building positions.

According to Jinshi News, CME's "Fed Watch" shows that the probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged until March is 96%, while the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 4%. By April, the cumulative probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 17.3%, the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 82.1%, and the cumulative probability of a 50 basis point rate cut is 0.6%. By June, the cumulative probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 43%.

According to Lookonchain monitoring, BTC OG insider whale transferred 5,000 BTC to Binance, worth approximately $335.75 million.

According to Jinshi reports, CME's "Fed Watch" shows that the probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged until March is 92.2%, while the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 7.8%.By April, the cumulative probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 25.3%, the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 73.1%, and the cumulative probability of a 50 basis point rate cut is 1.6%. By June, the cumulative probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 52.6%.

According to Jinshi reports, the CME "Fed Watch" shows that the probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates unchanged until March has risen to 94% (up from 78.3% before the announcement), while the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut has dropped to 6% (down from 21.7% before the announcement). By April, the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 80.4%, and the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 18.8%. By June, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 49.4%.

According to official news, the CME Group has now launched futures for Cardano (ADA), Chainlink (LINK), and Stellar Lumens (XLM).