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Former Credit Suisse CIO: Tokenized gold assumes "almost 100% price discovery" during CME market closure over the weekend

According to Cointelegraph, former Credit Suisse Chief Investment Officer Iggy Ioppe stated that during the period when CME Group's gold futures closed on Friday at 5:00 PM (Eastern Time) and reopened on Sunday at 6:00 PM, nearly all publicly visible gold price formation occurred in the on-chain market.He pointed out that during this time window, the regulated futures market was paused, and while there was some activity in the over-the-counter (OTC) market in Asia, it was not publicly transparent. Therefore, tokenized gold assets such as PAX Gold (PAXG) and Tether Gold (XAUt) became the only continuously tradable public market."From the perspective of publicly visible price formation, the on-chain market accounted for almost 100% of weekend price discovery." When CME resumes trading, futures prices typically align with the fluctuations that have occurred in the on-chain market.Data shows that the market capitalization of tokenized gold has risen to $4.4 billion, with approximately $2.8 billion added in the past year, an increase of 177%, far exceeding the performance of most spot gold ETFs. The total trading volume for 2025 is about $178 billion, with a peak of over $126 billion in the fourth quarter alone, making it second only to SPDR Gold Shares in terms of trading volume.On Saturday, amid airstrikes by the U.S. against Iran and escalating geopolitical tensions, tokenized gold briefly rose, with XAUt surpassing $5,450 and PAXG nearing $5,536, while Bitcoin and Ethereum fell in tandem.Current major participants include market makers, cross-market liquidity providers, and crypto-native macro traders who use tokenized gold for arbitrage, collateral, hedging, and yield strategies. Some institutions also monitor weekend on-chain gold trends to assess the "gap risk" before CME opens, but they often regard it as a reference signal rather than a direct basis for building positions.

Viewpoint: The price of Bitcoin will not be explicitly suppressed by institutions authorized to participate in ETFs, but the price discovery mechanism may be affected

The speculation about market manipulation by Jane Street has sparked ongoing discussions about the mechanism of Bitcoin ETFs. Bitwise advisor Jeff Park stated that the question of whether Bitcoin prices are being suppressed by Jane Street is not directed at a single institution, but rather determined by the structural characteristics inherent in the Bitcoin ETF framework.Each authorized participant (AP), including Jane Street Capital, JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, and others, has the exemption to create and redeem ETF shares, which allows them to operate flexibly in the market, including using futures or derivatives for hedging, without having to purchase physical Bitcoin, potentially affecting the price discovery mechanism.This gray area arises from regulatory exemptions and the SEC's approval of physical delivery. Although there is no evidence that any AP explicitly suppresses Bitcoin prices, the existing structure may alter the natural mechanisms of price formation, warranting attention from regulators and investors.Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas responded that this mechanism is indeed difficult to understand, and he is curious about who or what force is behind the "patterned sell-offs" that appear daily and then suddenly disappear. Samson Mow, CEO of Bitcoin technology company Jan3, stated that becoming an AP is not the only factor in a price suppression strategy; the key lies in how "extensive" their undisclosed trading and hedging activities are. This is a channel that brings capital costs close to zero.
2026-02-26

Wintermute: The AI sector is siphoning off market liquidity, and persistent selling pressure in the U.S. is dominating the market. Bitcoin is entering a high volatility price discovery phase

Wintermute stated that Bitcoin briefly fell to $60,000 last Monday, erasing all gains since Trump's election. Spot fund flows show significant structural pressure. The Coinbase premium has consistently been in a discount state throughout the market process, persisting since last December, indicating ongoing selling pressure from the U.S.Internal OTC fund flow data also confirms that U.S. counterparties were the main sellers throughout the week, and this trend has been further amplified by continuous ETF fund redemptions. Over the past few months, AI-related assets have been continuously absorbing available market funds, crowding out the allocation space for other asset classes. The phenomenon where crypto assets underperform when AI-related companies rise and experience amplified declines when they fall can almost entirely be explained by the rotation of funds towards the AI sector.For crypto assets to outperform again, AI trading needs to cool down first. Microsoft's weak earnings report has initiated this process, but it is still far from enough. Last week's market was like a "surrender-style" clearing, with volatility soaring and buying support emerging at $60,000. In an environment where spot trading remains relatively low, leverage has become the dominant factor in price fluctuations.If open interest cannot significantly rebound, it will be difficult for the market to form sustained follow-through on either the long or short side. A true structural recovery requires a return of spot demand, but there is currently almost no evidence of this. We are likely entering a phase of high volatility and choppy price discovery. It will be hard to see sustained upward potential until the Coinbase premium turns positive, ETF fund flows reverse, and basis rates stabilize. Meanwhile, retail attention is being diverted to other asset classes, and market direction seems increasingly dominated by institutional fund flows from ETFs and derivatives channels.

Analysis: The suppression of Bitcoin derivatives has been lifted, and the price discovery mechanism has returned

Glassnode co-founder Negentropic published an article stating that the current price structure of Bitcoin is showing positive changes. Recent pullbacks continue to receive buying support, and previous lows remain intact, indicating that the market is overall exhibiting a constructive trend. A key structural change is that the "short squeeze" effect in derivatives has essentially been cleared. With the largest Bitcoin options expiration event in history taking place, with a nominal size of approximately $23.6 billion, the price suppression state dominated by hedging behavior in the previous weeks is coming to an end.Negentropic noted that before the options expiration, market rallies are often suppressed by mechanical hedging rather than real supply and demand. As related funds exit the market, BTC is no longer "pinned down," and the price structure is expected to be re-led by the market itself, with the price discovery mechanism returning and upward bias gradually strengthening. From a macro perspective, he emphasized that the liquidity environment is still improving. The U.S. M2 money supply has increased by 4.3% year-on-year, rising to a historical high of $22.3 trillion in November, expanding for 21 consecutive months, and is about $400 billion higher than the peak in 2022. Even after adjusting for inflation, the real M2 still shows a year-on-year increase of 1.5%, rising for 15 consecutive months. The long-term trend remains clear—fiat currency dilution has not stopped, and macro and structural factors are building a new tailwind environment for Bitcoin.

Arthur Hayes: The price discovery of the largest tech stocks in the U.S. is expected to occur in the perpetual contract market

BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes stated, "Traditional finance (TradFi) is desperately trying to maintain its dominance in stock trading. It will be very interesting to observe how they respond as index perpetual contracts rapidly gain market recognition. The first market to dominate the perpetual contract space will be offshore trading of U.S. stock price risk.U.S. stocks, along with all stocks, will eventually be tokenized. However, index perpetual contracts can succeed without relying on stock tokenization. There is already a mature infrastructure for stock perpetual contracts that can scale quickly. Currently, the daily trading volume of index perpetual contracts has exceeded $100 million. As traders and market makers become familiar with the contract specifications, the trading volume will soon reach billions of dollars daily. Considering that there are often sudden global announcements after the TradFi markets close on Fridays, index perpetual contracts will become a tool for institutional and retail traders to hedge risks over the weekend. This will force major U.S. securities trading platforms to implement 24/7 trading faster than originally planned.I predict that by the end of 2026, price discovery for the largest U.S. tech stocks and major indices (such as the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100) will occur in the retail-focused perpetual contract market. When financial media displays the S&P 500 perpetual contract quotes as the best pricing source, rather than the CME's Globex version."

GoPlus: Discover multiple x402 ecosystem projects with risks, including excessive authorization, signature replay, etc

According to official news, GoPlus Security Research Institute conducted a detailed security risk scan on more than 30 x402 projects and community-reported risk projects in Binance Wallet and OKX Wallet, discovering that the following projects have issues such as excessive authorization, signature replay, HonyPot (PiXiu token), and unlimited issuance risks.FLOCK (0x5ab3): The transfer ERC20 function allows the owner to withdraw any amount of any token from the contract. x420 (0x68e2): The cross chain Mint function can mint tokens without restriction. U402 (0xd2b3): The mint By Bond function allows unlimited minting of coins. MRDN (0xe57e): The withdraw Token function allows the owner to withdraw any amount of any token from the contract. PENG (0x4444ee, 0x444450, 0x444428): The manual Swap function allows the owner to withdraw ETH from the contract, and the transfer From function bypasses the allowance check for special accounts. x402 Token (0x40ff): The transfer From function bypasses the allowance check for special accounts. x402b (0xd8af5f): The manual Swap function allows the owner to withdraw ETH from the contract, and the transfer From function bypasses the allowance check for special accounts. x402MO (0x3c47df): The manual Swap function allows the owner to withdraw ETH from the contract, and the transfer From function bypasses the allowance check for special accounts.
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