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Wintermute: Capital rotation is withdrawing from the Bitcoin narrative, institutions may be accumulating as planned

Wintermute released a report stating that the upcoming U.S. CPI data to be announced on Wednesday will be key in testing whether the recent interest rate repricing can be sustained. The cryptocurrency market has joined the ranks of rising risk appetite. The U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF has seen a net inflow for five consecutive trading days, totaling $853.5 million, marking the best weekly performance since mid-April; the Ethereum ETF has also seen a net inflow for the fifth consecutive week, increasing by $244.9 million, with BlackRock accounting for over 80% of the combined inflow of $1.1 billion for both.These inflows occurred against a backdrop of relatively low trading volume, more characteristic of institutional planned allocations rather than aggressive momentum buying, and reversed the narrative of fund rotation away from Bitcoin over the past two weeks, indicating that ETF demand is being matched by supply from elsewhere.On the institutional front, Wells Fargo announced it will launch a tokenized deposit business this fall, starting with the USD-GBP corridor and operating on its own chain, joining the ranks of JPMorgan and Citigroup to bring settlement rails on-chain.Meanwhile, the Senate Majority Leader submitted a motion to end debate on the CLARITY Act early Saturday morning, which will undergo procedural voting on September 15, requiring support from at least seven non-Republican senators. The improvement in ETF inflows is encouraging but still represents a preliminary signal. A strong weekly performance alone is insufficient to confirm a structural shift; the entire risk asset sector has just been repriced due to one piece of data. If Wednesday's CPI exceeds expectations and pushes the probability of a rate hike in September back above 50%, it could quickly alter the core logic supporting the current upward trend.Recent key catalysts include the CPI on August 12, the PPI on the 13th, retail sales data on the 14th, followed by the Jackson Hole meeting from August 27-29, and the vote to end debate on the CLARITY Act on September 15. Until ETF inflows and digital asset treasury activities prove their sustainability throughout the remainder of the summer, it is advisable to remain cautious, even as the market increasingly trades on institutional terms.

hot_img In July, quantitative private equity faced widespread drawdowns, with multiple products from Huansquare dropping over 20% in a single month. Institutions assess that AI has entered the "second half."

According to the Daily Economic News, the July quantitative private equity industry experienced a systemic drawdown, with several institutional products seeing a monthly net value decline of over 20%, turning year-to-date returns from positive to negative. Specifically, among the 9 displayed products under Huansquare Quantitative, 8 have recorded negative returns year-to-date, with all monthly declines in July exceeding 20%, and the maximum drawdown reaching 22.15%; among the 14 products displayed by Mingcong Investment, 9 have recorded negative returns year-to-date; in Jiukun Investment's 15 products, 14 still have positive returns year-to-date, but the monthly drawdown is also significant. In contrast, Yanfeng Investment has shown relatively stable performance.Regarding this drawdown, multiple institutions believe that this round of adjustment is more due to emotions and trading structures rather than the end of the AI industry trend. Freshwater Spring Investment pointed out that AI is still rapidly developing in terms of model capability enhancement, cost reduction, and the diffusion of application scenarios. Referencing experiences from the internet era, it is normal for there to be fluctuations during the advancement of technological waves. Institutions believe that AI investment is gradually transitioning from the previous focus on computing power infrastructure in the "first half" to "intelligent equity" in the "second half"—that is, a phase where the cost of intelligent usage continues to decline and application scenarios are accelerated in unlocking, providing opportunities for supply chain companies that can offer cost-effective solutions for leading model companies and large cloud vendors.
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