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BTC $74,982.64 +0.09%
ETH $2,336.66 -0.71%
BNB $629.07 +0.74%
XRP $1.43 +1.65%
SOL $88.19 +3.07%
TRX $0.3260 +0.11%
DOGE $0.0979 +1.29%
ADA $0.2553 +1.73%
BCH $448.99 +1.39%
LINK $9.44 +1.45%
HYPE $43.64 -3.81%
AAVE $113.62 +6.43%
SUI $0.9852 +0.49%
XLM $0.1661 +3.26%
ZEC $333.90 -2.73%

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Analyst: The Bitcoin funding rate has dropped to a new low since 2023, which may trigger a short squeeze, and BTC is expected to rise to $125,000

According to CoinDesk, Bitcoin is currently priced at $74,700, down 0.4% in the last 24 hours. News of ceasefire negotiations between the U.S. and Iran has boosted risk sentiment, with the S&P 500 index reaching a record high on Thursday. Trump stated that the prospects for a permanent ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran "look very optimistic," claiming that Iran has agreed to abandon its nuclear ambitions, hand over nuclear materials, and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, although Iran has not yet confirmed these concessions.Meanwhile, the market is closely monitoring the structural signals behind Bitcoin's price movements. ZeroStack CEO Daniel Reis-Faria stated, "The funding rate is so negative that it indicates the market is heavily short. If Bitcoin continues to rise in this context, a large number of short positions may be forced to close, further accelerating the price upward." He predicts that if the short base is forced to cover, Bitcoin could reach $125,000 within the next 30 to 60 days.On-chain analyst CryptoVizArt provided another perspective: Bitcoin's "True Market Mean" (TMM) shows that the average cost basis of active holders is currently above the market price, indicating that holders are overall in a state of unrealized losses. Since 2016, consistently falling below this mean has often coincided with Bitcoin's most severe downturns, including the bear market from 2018 to 2019 (with a maximum drop of 57%, lasting 282 days) and the decline following the Luna and FTX collapses from 2022 to 2023 (with a maximum drop of 56%, lasting 339 days).Analysts point out that these two judgments are not mutually exclusive—the short squeeze triggered by the extremely negative funding rate and the structural pressure of overall unrealized losses among active holders can coexist. The former may trigger a significant rise, but ultimately could be absorbed by selling from the latter. The future market direction may depend on whether the U.S.-Iran ceasefire can be sustained after its expiration next week.

BitMEX Research proposes a new mechanism to mitigate the impact of quantum computing-related Bitcoin freezing

According to official news, BitMEX Research has released a new research article proposing that in response to the risk of future quantum computers potentially breaking elliptic curve signatures, the Bitcoin network could adopt an alternative soft fork mechanism to "directly freeze" to reduce controversy and increase flexibility.The proposal revolves around "quantum-vulnerable fund freezing," but suggests avoiding the direct freezing of all related assets without evidence, instead gradually implementing security strategies through a verifiable condition-triggering mechanism. The core of the proposal is to establish a "signal vault," which contains special addresses generated using "accidental numbers" to prove that no one possesses their private keys. If passive spending occurs from that address, it will be regarded as on-chain evidence that quantum computing capabilities genuinely exist, thereby immediately triggering a comprehensive freeze of quantum-vulnerable assets.At the same time, the fund could attract capital through a multi-signature structure as a "quantum bounty," aimed at incentivizing potential attackers to expose their capabilities. The article also mentions that there is currently a BIP-361 proposal promoting the phased disabling of the old signature system and ultimately freezing risky assets, but this proposal is controversial due to its involvement in "mandatory freezing."The newly proposed "signal-trigger + security window" mechanism aims to replace the fixed-time freeze path, reducing potential system shocks while retaining Bitcoin's censorship-resistant characteristics, but it also brings complexity and execution risk trade-off issues.

Analyst: Bitcoin shorts are overly crowded, may rebound to squeeze shorts before the Easter holiday

According to The Block, Bitcoin has fallen below $66,000, with a 24-hour decline of 3.7%, continuing to fluctuate between $60,000 and $70,000 in recent weeks.Glassnode states that spot demand is beginning to absorb selling pressure, but it is not yet enough to drive sustained upward movement. It is estimated that 8 to 9 million BTC have a holding cost above the current price, forming a persistent "resistance" that suppresses rebounds, while long-term holders are still realizing losses at high levels, indicating that the stage of chip redistribution has not yet ended.In terms of derivatives, the funding rate has remained negative for most of the first quarter to date, meaning traders are paying a premium to hold short positions.Bitfinex analysts point out that "traders are willing to pay a premium to maintain downside exposure," and this concentrated short position pattern could trigger a short squeeze if upward momentum occurs. Demand in the options market has also declined, with implied volatility contracting and skew slightly leaning towards downside protection, indicating that investors prefer to hedge risks rather than bet on a breakout.On the macro front, Bitunix analysts indicate that the market has entered a "supply chain disruption" phase, with energy and industrial metal production being hindered and beginning to transmit inflation. Currently, liquidity for Bitcoin is concentrated between $69,000 and $70,100, with a key testing level below around $65,500.K33 notes that traders are entering the typically calmer Easter holiday window with a "cautiously aggressive" stance. From a long-term perspective, Pantera Capital founder Dan Morehead stated in a recent podcast that Bitcoin may need another six to eight months to bottom out, but he also believes that Bitcoin has reached "escape velocity," with institutional participation still close to zero, and the next round of increases will be driven by broader adoption.
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