Data: Short-term Bitcoin holders are at a loss of 6%, pressure exists but a capitulation sell-off has not yet occurred
CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr stated that short-term holders (STH) of Bitcoin are currently at a loss relative to their entry cost, but the realized loss is limited, and there are no signs of large-scale selling or capitulation in the market. The STH MVRV is approximately maintained at 0.94, remaining below the 1.0 parity level for 98 consecutive days, corresponding to over three months of sustained unrealized losses. This group has a realized price of about $67,300, while the spot price is around $63,200, with an average unrealized loss of about 6%. The price still stands above the -1σ support level of $59,300, with a deeper pressure zone at -2σ located at $49,200, showing a controllable pullback rather than structural damage.In terms of behavioral indicators, the STH SOPR (7-day moving average) is running at about 0.996, slightly below 1.0, indicating that this group is on average realizing small losses, but the losses are shallow and close to the breakeven line. The indicator has recently fluctuated narrowly between 0.996 and 1.002, briefly touching 1.0 on August 10 before retreating, with no signs of a deep selling wave. MVRV and SOPR corroborate each other: short-term holders are under pressure and realizing small losses, but this has not evolved into panic selling.Analysis points out that an upward recovery requires SOPR to stabilize above 1.0 and MVRV to rise above 1.0 (with the spot price breaking above the realized price of about $67,300); the downside risk lies in losing the $59,300 -1σ support and extending towards $49,200, while SOPR further weakens. The current structure is still supported, with pressure present but no signs of capitulation selling yet.
