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Analysis: Bitcoin prices are diverging from demand, with ETF inflows and trading platforms transferring out holdings providing short-term support

CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost pointed out that although the price of Bitcoin is rising, sustained buying pressure is still difficult to rebuild, and market signals are mixed. The cumulative spot demand over the past 30 days is -180,000 BTC, still negative, while futures demand is +54,000 BTC, still positive but slightly declining. The total average demand improved from -188,000 BTC to -126,000 BTC, narrowing the gap but still remaining in negative territory. Recently, there has been a divergence between price and total demand; Bitcoin's price has risen, but total demand has not turned positive, indicating that the increase is more driven by reduced selling pressure rather than strong buying.Looking at different sectors, the demand recovery is not uniform. For institutions, the geopolitical and macro environment is poor, but the Coinbase Premium, weighted by trading volume, has briefly turned positive, indicating that U.S. spot prices occasionally have a premium over other markets, and institutional selling pressure has significantly eased. ETFs have seen the biggest change in this round, with demand completely reversing compared to this summer, having recently net purchased about 70,000 BTC. The cumulative net inflow for 2026 is still about -17,000 BTC, but it is close to turning positive. In terms of trading platforms, the entire month of September has been characterized by net outflows, leaning towards accumulation rather than distribution. Bitcoin leaving trading platforms usually means that short-term selling pressure is lighter. Analyst Darkfost summarized that the current price increase is not due to enhanced buying pressure, but rather because investors have not continued to increase selling pressure at higher price levels, and the market structure remains fragile.

Huobi HTX Chief Analyst Cloud: Bitcoin's rebound has seen spot buying support, and its sustainability depends on ETF inflows and leverage temperature

Huobi HTX Chief Analyst Cloud stated that Bitcoin quickly rebounded after hitting the bottom under the dual pressure of interest rate hikes and the obstruction of the Clear Act, with a weekly increase of about 16%, rising to $87,307 during trading on September 21 (Huobi HTX spot price), reaching a new high since January. This round of increase is driven by three forces: the net inflow of about $1 billion into the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF on September 21, the largest single day of the year; short positions being liquidated for about $650 million within 24 hours; and falling oil prices leading to a cooling of inflation expectations. Compared to last week's rebound, which was mainly driven by passive replenishment, this week saw a relay of spot buying.Whether the trend can continue depends on two points: whether ETF inflows can shift from a single-day pulse to a continuous trend, and whether leverage can be maintained at a non-overheated level. Currently, the funding rate is about 0.01%, in a neutral range, but the open interest of Bitcoin contracts has risen above $61 billion. If the capital weakens, high leverage will amplify the pullback. Market sentiment has entered an extreme greed zone, which historically has often been a precursor signal for short-term trend reversals. Technically, $87,500 is the resistance above, while the first support zone is between $84,000 and $85,000. The trend has conditions for continuation, but the highest risk of short-term volatility also occurs during the hottest phase of sentiment.Note: The content of this article is not investment advice and does not constitute any offer, solicitation, or recommendation of investment products.

first_img Bitcoin spot ETFs ended nine days of net inflows, while Ethereum ETFs continued their inflow momentum

On August 28, the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF recorded a net outflow of $201.9 million, ending a nine-day streak of net inflows since mid-August. According to SoSoValue data, this reversal reduced the cumulative net inflow to approximately $55.1 billion, with total net assets of about $93.9 billion. Decrypt's ETF flow tracker turned the Bitcoin sentiment reading to "bearish" on that day.The previous strong performance was particularly remarkable: the Bitcoin ETF had accumulated inflows of $2.8 billion during an eight-day rally, during which Bitcoin briefly tested the $80,000 mark and recorded the largest single-day inflow since May, with a peak single-day inflow exceeding $600 million on August 20. In contrast, the Ethereum ETF showed no signs of weakness, with a net inflow of $102.1 million on August 28, extending its streak of inflows to ten days, with a cumulative net inflow of approximately $12.9 billion and total net assets of about $13.8 billion.As the flow of funds diverged, Bitcoin fell back due to hawkish remarks from Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh at Jackson Hole, after a rally that had pushed prices close to $80,000. Over the weekend, Bitcoin rebounded to around $79,000. Analysts pointed out that the single-day outflow relative to the fund's cumulative size remains moderate, and the interruption of the rally may not necessarily indicate a widespread reversal in institutional demand.
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