fluence

Bitcoin fell back after reaching $69,000 on Wednesday, following U.S. President Trump's speech that failed to assure an end to the Iran war, while WTI crude oil prices rose above $110, triggering market risk aversion. Meanwhile,the U.S. Treasury expressed concerns about the $2 trillion private credit market, and Blue Owl, which manages $30.7 billion in assets, announced that two of its private credit funds experienced "unconventional redemption requests," setting a withdrawal request limit of 5%. The number of people continuously applying for unemployment benefits in the U.S. rose to 1.84 million.Bitcoin has maintained a support level of $66,000 this week but faces multiple selling pressures. The U.S.-listed spot Bitcoin ETF has seen a net outflow of $450 million since March 24, with the industry holding $88 billion in Bitcoin assets, of which BlackRock's IBIT leads with $53.9 billion. MARA Holdings sold 15,133 BTC in March, Riot Platforms transferred out 500 BTC for sale, and Nakamoto Holdings sold 284 BTC.The U.S. federal deficit is expected to reach $1.9 trillion by 2026, and the market believes that economic stimulus measures may provide support for Bitcoin prices in the medium term. Companies like Strategy and Metaplanet continue to buy Bitcoin, partially offsetting the aforementioned selling pressure.

Data shows that lobbying groups related to the cryptocurrency industry have invested approximately $271 million to influence the 2026 U.S. elections, mainly for political activities such as advertising. Among them, the super PAC FairShake is one of the main sources of funding, with donors including Coinbase, Ripple, Uniswap Labs, and venture capital firm Andreessen Horowitz.The data also indicates that about 40% of the related funds are directed towards Republican candidates, about 3% towards Democratic candidates, and the remainder supports independent candidates. Industry insiders say that as the 2026 U.S. midterm elections approach, lobbying activities in the cryptocurrency industry are expected to continue to increase.

The organizers of the Dubai TOKEN2049 Summit plan to postpone the event to April 21-22, 2027. The conference was originally scheduled to take place from April 29 to April 30, 2026, but recent conflicts in the Middle East have spread to Dubai.

According to The Block, South Korean ruling party lawmaker Kim Seung-won proposed amendments to the Capital Markets Act and the Virtual Asset User Protection Act, requiring influencers (Finfluencers) who provide cryptocurrency investment advice on social media to disclose their personal asset holdings and the compensation they receive.The proposal aims to enhance market transparency and combat misleading information and self-dealing behavior. According to the proposed legislation, individuals who regularly provide investment advice on social media, mass publications, or broadcasts must publicly disclose the types and amounts of cryptocurrency assets they hold, as well as any compensation related to their promotions. Penalties for violations will reference capital market crimes such as price manipulation.Kim Seung-won pointed out that this move is a necessary measure to address conflicts of interest and investor harm caused by unregulated social media commentary.

Bloomberg senior ETF analyst Eric Balchunas posted on the X platform, pointing out that the cumulative net inflow of Bitcoin ETFs (the most important data) peaked at $63 billion last October and is currently at $53 billion, meaning there has been a net increase of $53 billion in just two years. He stated that his team (more optimistic than most peers) originally predicted an inflow of only $5 to $15 billion in the first year. This data is of significant reference value for understanding the $8 billion outflow of ETFs after Bitcoin dropped 45% and the relationship between Bitcoin and Wall Street. Overall, it appears that Wall Street's influence remains positive.

According to Cointelegraph, the President of the German Central Bank, Joachim Nagel, stated that stablecoins pegged to the euro would provide Europe with more independence, allowing it to move away from dollar-pegged stablecoins that are set to be approved under the "GENIUS Act."Joachim Nagel, the President of the Deutsche Bundesbank (German Central Bank), supports the launch of a central bank digital currency pegged to the euro as well as payment-type stablecoins denominated in euros. In a preparatory speech at the American Chamber of Commerce's New Year reception in Frankfurt on Monday, Nagel mentioned that EU officials are "working hard" to advance the rollout of retail central bank digital currencies. He believes that euro-denominated stablecoins will also help "make Europe more independent in terms of payment systems and solutions.""It is worth noting that wholesale central bank digital currencies will enable financial institutions to make programmable payments using central bank money," Nagel stated. "I also see the value of euro-denominated stablecoins, as they can allow individuals and businesses to make cross-border payments at a low cost."Nagel's remarks come months after U.S. President Trump signed a bill to establish a regulatory framework for payment-type stablecoins in the country. This legislation could pose a challenge to any potential euro-pegged stablecoins. The law is expected to be fully implemented 18 months after signing or 120 days after relevant regulations are finalized. The German central bank president's comments on stablecoins did not mention the risks he referred to at the Euro50 Group meeting last week.Nagel warned that if the market share of dollar-denominated stablecoins significantly exceeds that of euro-pegged stablecoins, domestic monetary policy "could be severely compromised, not to mention that Europe's sovereignty could be weakened."

U.S. District Judge Beth Bloom of the Southern District of Florida issued a $2.8 million default judgment against former crypto influencer Ben Armstrong (also known as "BitBoy") in a defamation case brought by investor Kevin O'Leary. The court ruled against Armstrong in six counts of defamation due to his failure to present a defense. The damages include approximately $78,000 for reputational harm, $750,000 for emotional distress, and $2 million in punitive damages.The case stems from a post Armstrong made on the X platform in March 2025, where he falsely claimed that O'Leary was involved in a fatal boating accident in 2019 and committed murder.

In response to the statement made by the so-called "former Binance listing manager Chase" in an interview regarding "the short-term price of cryptocurrencies being influenced by liquidity, attention, and chip structure," He Yi stated, "Short-term prices are indeed greatly affected by liquidity, traffic, and token structure, but whether the hype can transcend cycles depends on factors such as revenue, empowerment, issuance, and destruction. For example, BTC, ETH, and BNB have all broken free from the constraints of the first three elements. The crypto industry has been financing through storytelling for many years; the narrative is dead, and practicality must prevail."

According to Jinshi reports, White House Economic Council Director Hassett stated that inflation data will be a key factor influencing the Federal Reserve's decision-making.

Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan stated in the ETF Edge program that the recent decline in Bitcoin is not caused by a single factor, with the four-year cycle being a major downward catalyst. Matt Hougan pointed out that investors have recently favored assets like gold and AI stocks over cryptocurrencies. Additionally, the market is also affected by quantum risks and concerns regarding Kevin Warsh.Despite Bitcoin's price briefly falling below $61,000, reaching a nearly 16-month low, Matt Hougan believes that the financialization process of Bitcoin has not changed its supply scarcity. Currently, Bitwise manages over $15 billion in assets, and its Bitwise Solana Staking ETF has dropped about 57% since its launch last October.

According to GMGN monitoring, influenced by Circle CEO Jeremy Allaire's mention of the Purch project on X, the Solana chain's token PURCH saw its market cap rapidly increase, reaching a high of $19 million in a short period, before significantly retreating. Its current market cap is reported to be around $7.5 million, with a current price of approximately $0.0075, and a 24-hour increase of 420%.ChainCatcher reminds users that meme coin trading is highly volatile, largely dependent on market sentiment and speculative hype, and lacks actual value or use cases. Investors should be aware of the risks.

Famous Silicon Valley investor and co-founder of AngelList, Naval Ravikant, recently stated that Moltbook is becoming the new "Reverse Turing Test." Influenced by this statement, the Base chain meme coin MOLT experienced a rapid surge, with an increase of over 50% at one point.

Dragonfly managing partner Haseeb posted on platform X that in the past few months, the public perception of Binance founder Zhao Changpeng (CZ) has seen a significant reversal: he was once viewed as a "hero" by some in the community upon his release, but currently, some opinions equate him with negative figures like SBF. He believes that both extreme views are unreasonable, but they reflect an interesting phenomenon of changing market sentiment.CZ subsequently responded that both viewpoints are overly simplistic and may be related to changes in market cycles and the macro environment. For example, the crypto industry previously experienced a more sympathetic sentiment under regulatory pressure, while currently, in a relatively friendlier policy environment, if Bitcoin does not continue to reach new highs, market sentiment may turn negative. This could also simply be a change in sentiment driven by bull and bear cycles. He stated that the team will continue to focus on building and thanked the community for their support.

According to GMGN monitoring, possibly due to interactions with CZ, the Chinese Meme coin on the BSC chain "I Am Here" has rapidly surged, with a 24-hour increase of over 400%, currently priced at $0.00334, and a market cap of $3.3 million, with a trading volume of $5.4 million during the same period.ChainCatcher reminds that Meme coin trading is highly volatile, largely relying on market sentiment and conceptual speculation, lacking actual value support. Investors should be cautious of related risks.

According to Bloomberg, the average increase from IPO price to the end of the year for U.S. public companies in 2025 is 13.9%, lower than the 16% increase of the S&P 500 index, with poor performance from cryptocurrency and AI companies being the main reason.Stablecoin issuer Circle performed better, surging 170% on its IPO debut, but then fell nearly 70% from a high of $263 to $84.80; Gemini performed worse, plummeting 64.5% from an IPO price of $28 to $9.92; Bullish dropped from a high of $68 to $37.87. Medium-sized IPOs ($500 million to $1 billion) averaged only a 5.6% increase, far below the 20% of large IPOs ($1 billion+).The head of PwC's U.S. IPO practice stated that the market has returned to fundamentals-driven dynamics, with investors becoming more selective and the bar for early-stage tech companies significantly raised.

Bitwise Research Director Ryan Rasmussen stated, "Wall Street's explanation for Bitcoin's rise of about 5% is that the release of Venezuela's oil reserves, falling oil prices, declining inflation, and lower interest rates have led to the increase in Bitcoin. However, this logic is flawed; in the short term, the probability of interest rate cuts has remained largely unchanged compared to last week. Even looking ahead to the end of 2026, the expectations for rate cuts remain unchanged after Maduro's arrest. Since Maduro's arrest, the factors driving Bitcoin's price increase of over 5% are as follows:Institutional adoption (positive for Bitcoin): Since the launch of the spot Bitcoin ETF in 2024, institutional funds have been continuously flowing into the crypto market, and this trend is accelerating. With major platforms like Morgan Stanley, Wells Fargo, and Bank of America’s Merrill Lynch starting to allocate assets (for example, a net inflow of about $500 million to Bitcoin ETFs on January 2), institutional participation is significantly increasing.Shift in crypto regulation (positive for Bitcoin): As the crypto-friendly regulatory direction gradually establishes itself after the 2024 elections, the crypto industry will begin to genuinely feel the benefits brought by this policy shift. Wall Street institutions, including wealth management firms, university endowment funds, pensions, and sovereign wealth funds, are starting to allocate Bitcoin more seriously and systematically.Optimism around AI (positive for risk assets): Concerns about an AI bubble are easing. Investor sentiment is turning optimistic, with funds flowing back into risk-appetite assets such as tech stocks and Bitcoin.Unchanged expectations for rate cuts (positive for risk assets): Maduro's arrest has not materially changed short-term expectations for rate cuts, nor does it mean that quantitative easing (QE) has been ruled out; QE has only just begun. The market previously, and still, expects a 50 basis point (or even more) rate cut in 2026. This weekend's events in Venezuela had some impact on Bitcoin, but they are not the main reason for Bitcoin's rise of about 5%.

According to official news, Gate highlighted the platform's collaboration with world-class IPs in its 2025 year-end review video. As the official sponsor of the F1 Red Bull Racing team, the Gate brand logo will prominently appear on the race cars, team uniforms, and key positions such as the helmet of four-time champion Max Verstappen starting from the 2025 season. During the Grand Prix, Gate will interact with guests like driver Yuki Tsunoda, creating a season-long KOL hospitality and VIP experience around the year's events. Additionally, Gate and the F1 Red Bull Racing team have launched the IN THE MOMENT co-branded digital collectibles series, attracting global user participation and further amplifying the brand narrative of "riding with champions."In another top-tier sports collaboration, Gate, as the official sleeve sponsor of Inter Milan, has invited goalkeeper Yann Sommer to become a Gate Friend, continuously strengthening its connection with the global sports community. Through multi-dimensional brand collaborations and content co-creation, Gate is expanding its global influence and platform credibility, establishing the practical application of its All in Web3 strategy, and enhancing its brand expression on the global mainstream stage.

As the Trump administration enters its second year, the regulatory landscape for cryptocurrency in the United States is shifting. The Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) have moved from a jurisdictional tug-of-war to closer collaboration, jointly advancing cryptocurrency regulation. SEC Chairman Paul Atkins is promoting a "token classification system," Project Crypto, and an innovation exemption mechanism, and has approved various cryptocurrency ETF listing standards, while also prioritizing asset tokenization in regulatory focus.The CFTC is accelerating rule clarification through "Crypto Sprint," and under the new chairman Michael Selig, it is expected to play a more central role in the regulation of cryptocurrency commodities like Bitcoin. Industry insiders believe that by 2026, U.S. cryptocurrency regulation will present a dual-track pattern of SEC institutional innovation + CFTC-led market expansion. Former SEC senior lawyer Howard Fischer pointed out that this is the first time he can recall the two agencies advancing cryptocurrency regulation in such a highly collaborative manner, and he anticipates that this cooperation will dominate the regulatory agenda in 2026.

According to CoinDesk, during the early trading session on Wednesday in the U.S., cryptocurrency prices surged significantly, with Bitcoin prices returning to above $90,000. Factors that may be favorable for the market include:Metal prices continue to rise sharply, with silver up about 5%, reaching a new high of over $66 per ounce, while gold and copper prices have also increased by more than 1%.A leading candidate for the Federal Reserve chair, current Fed Governor Chris Waller, made dovish remarks in a public speech, suggesting that the neutral federal funds rate should be 50-100 basis points lower than the current level.He also added that the current job growth in the U.S. is close to zero, and inflation is not expected to rebound. Currently, the major U.S. stock indices are relatively unchanged in early trading, and the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond has decreased by 2 basis points to 4.15%.