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According to CoinDesk, Glassnode's Bitcoin on-chain metric RHODL ratio is currently at 4.5, which is the third highest level on record, and the signals it emits are more aligned with a market bottom rather than a cycle top.The RHODL ratio compares the value of Bitcoin held by long-term holders (holding for 6 months to 3 years) to that held by short-term holders (holding for 1 day to 3 months). An increase in the ratio typically reflects a longer holding period for chips and reduced speculative activity, rather than an influx of new buyers—this dynamic has occurred after significant corrections in 2015, 2019, and 2022. During the 50% drop in Bitcoin over the past six months, young speculative chips have been largely washed out, concentrating wealth among long-term holders.Historically, the RHODL ratio has only been higher than the current level twice: in 2015 (ratio of 5) and in 2022 (ratio of 7), both corresponding to cycle bottoms, which suggests that Bitcoin may still have further downside potential. However, to push the ratio to higher levels, it typically requires the activity of short-term holders to be nearly exhausted, and this condition is not yet evident under current circumstances—Bitcoin has rebounded about 25% from its February low, perpetual contract funding rates remain negative, and the S&P 500 has also reached an all-time high.Overall, this indicator suggests that the current market conditions are closer to an adjustment within the cycle rather than a cycle top formation, and the re-dominance of long-term holders in the market may indicate that a phase bottom is approaching.

As the first centralized exchange (CEX) to connect with Polymarket, Gate's data shows that in the prediction event "How will the Federal Reserve's April interest rate decision change?", the market estimates the probability of interest rates remaining unchanged at a high of 99%. Currently, the overall sentiment in the macro market is cautious, with most participants expecting to maintain a wait-and-see stance in this month's meeting, awaiting more economic data guidance. Keeping interest rates unchanged helps stabilize market liquidity and risk appetite, and various assets, including stock indices and commodities, are expected to attract investor interest. Gate has a comprehensive layout of traditional asset categories, covering the widest range in the network.In addition, users can directly access the prediction market through the Gate App, entering the Polymarket page from the platform's homepage Alpha and using USDT in their exchange account to participate in event predictions. This integration marks a key step for Gate in the fusion of the crypto trading ecosystem and prediction markets, also bringing users a more open and diverse market participation experience.

According to Cointelegraph, former U.S. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson warned that U.S. authorities should prepare short-term, targeted emergency plans in advance for the potential collapse of future U.S. Treasury demand. He stated that once a crisis occurs, the impact will be severe. The U.S. Treasury market is seen as the cornerstone of the global financial system, and if it becomes unstable, it could affect the pricing of corporate bonds, mortgages, and stocks.The report pointed out that if a crisis weakens confidence in the dollar, it could drive funds toward alternative value storage assets like Bitcoin and gold; however, Tether, which uses U.S. Treasuries as its main reserve asset, may also face redemption and de-pegging risks.

According to GMGN data, the top 5 tokens with net inflow from KOL in the past 24 hours are as follows:CAR (817n....ump): Net inflow of $2,000, with a 24-hour increase of 700.6%, currently priced at $0.0001.BP (BPxx....PCy): Net inflow of $1,000, with a 24-hour increase of 5.3%, currently priced at $0.1482.PNP (4tsg....rrr): Net inflow of $1,000, with a 24-hour increase of 234.1%, currently priced at $0.0001.Marmot (6hh1....rrr): Net inflow of $878, with a 24-hour increase of 902.6%, currently priced at $0.0008.Goose (3cjk....ump): Net inflow of $799, with a 24-hour increase of 89.8%, currently priced at $0.0001.

According to Cointelegraph, Michael Selig, the chairman of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), stated that the agency is working to provide clarity for the crypto space, including tokenized collateral and stablecoins, while also developing clear guidelines for prediction markets.

According to Jinshi reports, senior officials of the International Monetary Fund stated that our advice to the Bank of Japan is to rely on data and gradually begin to raise interest rates.

According to Jinshi reports, the European Central Bank's meeting minutes show that all members believe the risks to the inflation outlook are tilted to the upside.

CoinDesk analyst James Van Straten stated that the Bitcoin funding rate has fallen to its lowest level since 2023, and historical patterns show that such signals often coincide with market bottoms. According to Glassnode data, the seven-day moving average of the funding rate has dropped to about -0.005%.The funding rate is the fee that long and short positions pay each other periodically in perpetual contracts to keep the contract price aligned with the spot market. When the rate is positive, longs pay shorts, reflecting bullish market sentiment; when the rate is negative, shorts pay longs, indicating a bearish market. Despite the funding rate being persistently negative from March to April this year, Bitcoin still oscillated upward from the $60,000 to $65,000 range to about $75,000. Historically, a deeply negative funding rate often coincides with Bitcoin's phase bottoms: during the market crash triggered by the COVID-19 pandemic in March 2020, Bitcoin fell to about $3,000; it dropped to $30,000 during China's mining ban announcement in 2021; it hit a low of about $15,000 during the FTX collapse in November 2022; and it briefly fell below $20,000 during the Silicon Valley Bank crisis in 2023. During the yen arbitrage trade closure in August 2024 and the "Liberation Day" sell-off in April 2025, negative funding rates also appeared alongside phase lows. The continued negative funding rate indicates that even if the price trend is positive, short positions remain at a high level. This divergence may suggest that the market is climbing within a "wall of worry," and a large number of short positions could become fuel for further price increases.

Gate, as the first centralized exchange to connect to Polymarket, shows that the probability of a closing market value forecast of over $2 trillion for the SpaceX IPO is about 46%, making it the highest probability option currently.It is reported that Gate has launched the first phase of the Pre-IPOs project, SpaceX (SPCX). The subscription for this phase of SpaceX (SPCX) will be open from April 20, 2026, 18:00 to April 22, 18:00 (UTC+8), supporting participation in both USDT and GUSD. After the subscription is completed, the SPCX asset certificates are expected to be distributed before April 22, 22:00 (UTC+8) and will enter pre-market trading in a 100% unlocked form, with pre-market trading starting at April 24, 18:00 (UTC+8). The total subscription amount is 33,900 SPCX, with a total value of approximately $20.01 million, a unit price of $590, corresponding to an implied valuation of about $1.4 trillion.In terms of participation mechanism, Gate Pre-IPOs adopts "average locked amount per hour" for allocation, emphasizing early participation weight. The minimum participation threshold is 100 USDT, and no handling or custody fees are charged. Gate Pre-IPOs will continue to focus on early participation opportunities for high-quality projects before listing, providing users with a new entry point to access global quality assets.

Bitcoin rose to about $74,935 during the Asian session, up 0.7% in the last 24 hours and 5.4% for the week. However, the derivatives market is sending mixed signals. Institutional firm QCP Capital pointed out that this round of increase is mainly driven by spot trading, rather than a broad recovery in risk appetite.Currently, the funding rate for Bitcoin perpetual contracts remains negative, and open interest has decreased, indicating that short sellers are still increasing hedges rather than passively closing positions. The options market is also leaning towards caution: short-term implied volatility is sluggish, with one-month volatility lower than three-month volatility, and the risk reversal indicator shows that the market's demand for downside protection is higher than for upside bets, indicating that traders are more inclined to pay for potential declines rather than chase upward movements. QCP believes this is more of a "bounce" rather than a trend reversal.On a macro level, long-term U.S. Treasury yields and gold prices have not confirmed a recovery in risk appetite, with gold still near high levels, indicating that safe-haven demand remains. Institutions point out that the current market is more driven by expectations of a ceasefire and "emotional repair," rather than a core risk being alleviated. Additionally, Ethereum has shown relatively strong performance, with the ETH/BTC ratio rising to about 0.0315, combined with on-chain transaction volumes and stablecoin supply reaching all-time highs, indicating signs of capital rotating towards high β assets. However, the market still needs to observe the evolution of subsequent risk events to confirm the sustainability of this round of increase.

According to analyst Darkfost, Bitcoin has experienced a net outflow from CEX almost every day for the past two months, indicating a trend of accumulation among investors.This type of structural outflow is often seen as a positive signal of reduced selling pressure, especially during the current price consolidation phase, which may indicate that the selling power is exhausted, while also suggesting that Bitcoin is being transferred from CEX to long-term holding wallets.

According to The Block, CryptoQuant's research director Julio Moreno stated on Wednesday that Bitcoin's recent rally is facing an increasing risk of profit-taking, with multiple on-chain indicators showing that selling pressure is strengthening. Currently, the price of Bitcoin has slightly retreated but is testing the on-chain "realized price" of $76,800 for traders. This level is seen as a significant bearish resistance, historically often limiting the rebound space, as holders close to breaking even are more inclined to sell for profit, thereby suppressing further increases.Moreno pointed out, "This price range precisely capped the price increase during the bear market rebound in January 2026 and reversed downward after reaching that level. If the current selling pressure continues to strengthen, a similar trend may occur again." He added that if the resistance level holds, approximately $67,600 below will become the main short-term support. The report also noted that the proportion of large trades has rapidly increased from less than 10% to over 40%, and historically, this level usually corresponds to strong short-term selling pressure. Profit-taking has not yet peaked. Currently, the daily realized profit is about $500 million, below the $1 billion threshold that historically marks significant sell-off peaks.Finally, Moreno stated that if Bitcoin remains above $76,000, or even approaches the realized price level of $76,800, the daily realized profit could accelerate to over $1 billion, thereby increasing selling pressure and raising the likelihood of a temporary top or correction in the market.

According to on-chain analyst Ai Yi's monitoring, an ancient whale that had held 3000 BTC for 14.5 years has transferred again after four months, moving 500 BTC to a new address (bc1q9...h0s2j), worth 37.04 million dollars.The whale's cost was 0.37 dollars, and it still holds 2359 BTC, worth 174 million dollars.

Gate released its latest transparency report, with a simultaneous strengthening of its financial management and security systems. Against the backdrop of market fluctuations, Yu Bi Bao and on-chain earnings have achieved dual growth in user and fund scale, with on-chain earnings holding 3,084 BTC and 175,700 ETH, both reaching historical highs; the ETF business's trading volume in March exceeded 18 billion USDT, with continuous improvement in ecological participation.In terms of security and transparency, the platform's latest overall reserve coverage rate reached 122%, with a BTC reserve rate as high as 147%, and various assets maintaining excess reserves, further enhancing risk resistance capabilities. Additionally, in the RootData exchange transparency ranking, Gate ranked second globally, with its comprehensive strength continuously validated by the market. Furthermore, Gate continues to expand its global influence, partnering with the F1 Red Bull Racing team to host an F1 Japan Grand Prix viewing event in March, deepening brand connections and user engagement through high-profile collaborations. Gate has formed a synergistic effect in the growth of financial management scale, continuous improvement in transparency, and global brand expansion, further consolidating its leading position in the industry.

The crypto wallet Zerion disclosed that North Korean hackers are using AI for long-term social engineering attacks, stealing approximately $100,000 from the company's hot wallet.Zerion confirmed that user funds, applications, and infrastructure were not affected, and has proactively disabled the web application as a precaution. Zerion also stated that the attackers obtained some session and credential information from team members who were logged in, as well as the private keys of the company's hot wallet, and pointed out that AI is changing the way cyber threats operate.

According to Jinshi reports, former U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen stated that she still believes there is a possibility of interest rate cuts later this year; however, the fluctuations in oil prices caused by the Iran war have cast a shadow over the outlook. Yellen pointed out that this is a broad supply shock affecting multiple areas, including gasoline, liquefied natural gas, fertilizers, food, shipping costs, and semiconductors. While the possibility of raising interest rates cannot be ruled out, stable long-term inflation expectations suggest that this is unlikely to happen. She expects that there may be interest rate cuts by the end of this year.