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first_img Jim Bianco: The bond market has long indicated the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike, and the construction of Bitcoin ETF has missed the key points

Bitcoin Magazine released a video interview where Jim Bianco, founder of Bianco Research, stated that the bond market signaled over two years ago before the Federal Reserve's first interest rate hike in more than three years. He pointed out that during the previous rate-cutting cycle of the Federal Reserve, the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury rose from 3.7% to 5%, marking the first time in over 50 years that the long-end yield increased while the Federal Reserve was cutting rates.In his discussion with Grace Remington and Sean Hagan, Bianco also mentioned that the Federal Reserve's decision on October 28 (one week before the midterm elections) is more significant than Wall Street expects. He refuted the "devaluation trade" narrative and discussed what Bitcoin needs to demonstrate, including development activity and the DeFi summer. He believes that the construction of Bitcoin ETFs has missed the point and stated that Tether has effectively become a circulating currency in Venezuela and Afghanistan.Additionally, Bianco talked about stablecoins and the GENIUS Act, real demand for government bonds, and the post-pandemic economy, while criticizing Federal Reserve Chairman Powell. He noted the existence of multiple wars and "safe haven" logic and referenced the "Fourth Turning" theory to analyze the current macro cycle.

Famous trader: Bitcoin has continuously digested interest rate hikes and the obstruction of the CLARITY Act, the market trend may have changed

Renowned trader Killa stated, "The 'Everything is Priced In' chart records the major catalytic events in each cycle of Bitcoin, as well as the price performance after these events occur." He believes that during bear markets, negative news typically drives BTC to continue falling, leading traders to gradually form the habit of "shorting on bad news"; however, when the high time frame trend reverses, the same news may only cause temporary panic, after which Bitcoin absorbs the selling pressure and continues to rise.Recently, the market has experienced the Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes, the voting expectations for the CLARITY Act, and the failure to advance the act. At one point, the market viewed these events as reasons for Bitcoin to decline further, but BTC only briefly fell below the range's low point, quickly rebounding and showing strong resilience. Even when narratives related to a "Third World War" intensified, Bitcoin began to respond relatively positively to panic factors in terms of price. He believes this performance is a significant distinction between bull and bear markets: in a bear market, bad news drives prices down, while in a bull market, bad news may prompt traders to capitulate, after which prices continue to rise.Killa noted that the important catalyst confirming the continuation of the last cycle was the approval of the spot Bitcoin ETF, while a similar catalyst for this cycle may be the CLARITY Act. Bitcoin's recent ability to digest multiple pieces of bad news is an important basis for his judgment that the trend has already changed.
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