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ido

Vitalik: Prediction markets are the "antidote" to social media, providing a more rational and responsible aggregation of public opinion

Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin posted on Farcaster that prediction markets are a remedy for the crazy opinions on emotional topics, using two screenshots as examples: Elon Musk previously posted that a civil war in the UK is "inevitable," while the prediction market Polymarket shows only a 3% probability for "Will there be a civil war in the UK in 2024?" (Vitalik believes 3% is still too high, as some bettors are inflating the probability).Vitalik stated that many users on social media exaggerate claims that "something is definitely going to happen" to create panic or attract attention, but they are not held accountable for it; whereas prediction markets involve real money bets, which are more likely to reflect true probabilities and can counter these "crazy opinions."Vitalik then elaborated on his overall view of prediction markets: compared to social media (where creating panic comes without accountability) and mainstream media (which often resorts to clickbait), prediction markets have a stronger incentive for "truth-seeking." Telling the truth can yield real rewards, while lying incurs significant economic penalties. After discovering exaggerated news, checking Polymarket reveals very low probabilities, which can help calm people down, and conversely, it can also prevent false hopes. Prediction markets serve as a "cure" for social media, providing a more rational and responsible way to aggregate public opinion.

Next week's news insights: Monad launches mainnet; Makina will start IDO event on Legion

According to the RootData calendar page, next week includes several important news items such as project updates, macroeconomic finance, token unlocks, incentive activities, and presale events. Details are as follows:November 24:Monad launches mainnet;REZ unlocks 39,816.67 million tokens, valued at $2.5867 million, accounting for 8.852% of the circulation.November 25:Makina will launch IDO event on Legion;The U.S. announces September PPI month-on-month and year-on-year.November 26:AMI unlocks 2,772.22 million tokens, valued at $412.7 thousand, accounting for 27.659% of the circulation.November 27:TICO unlocks 47,187.5 million tokens, valued at $676.1 thousand, accounting for 22.052% of the circulation.November 28:Japan announces October unemployment rate;Registration for the Hook incubator launched by the Uniswap Foundation ends;SIGN unlocks 9,666.67 million tokens, valued at $3.7267 million, accounting for 7.161% of the circulation.November 29:HYPE unlocks 9 million tokens, valued at approximately $307 million, accounting for 3.66% of the circulation.November 30:STBL will launch a dynamic peg mechanism for stablecoin 2.0 innovations;3Jane launches mainnet;OP unlocks 3,221.23 million tokens, valued at $9.6503 million, accounting for 1.699% of the circulation.In addition, there is a button at the top of the RootData calendar page for generating image shares, allowing users to select important events for sharing.Risk Warning: This calendar does not constitute any investment advice.
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