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ZEC $362.41 -5.97%
BTC $60,866.94 -0.09%
ETH $1,568.74 -0.77%
BNB $574.50 +0.41%
XRP $1.09 -0.26%
SOL $62.12 -2.17%
TRX $0.3237 +1.23%
DOGE $0.0817 +0.57%
ADA $0.1569 +0.59%
BCH $217.38 +3.79%
LINK $7.39 +0.61%
HYPE $56.61 -5.05%
AAVE $60.79 -2.51%
SUI $0.7185 +2.49%
XLM $0.2124 +5.27%
ZEC $362.41 -5.97%

improvement

Analysis: SOPR has dropped to the range of 0.92–0.94, indicating macro marginal improvement, but the structural bull market for BTC has not yet been established

Bitfinex released an analysis report indicating that the decline in inflation in the U.S. market and the rise in interest rate cut expectations provide psychological support for risk assets, but the cryptocurrency market is more likely to experience phase fluctuations rather than a one-sided trend.The expansion of the Federal Reserve's balance sheet reduces systemic liquidity risks, which historically tends to benefit scarce assets like Bitcoin. However, the current pace of liquidity recovery is relatively slow, and selling pressure on spot Bitcoin re-emerged earlier this week, with cumulative sell-offs reaching several billion dollars. Although the market's ability to absorb sell orders has improved compared to before, on-chain indicators show that the adjusted SOPR (Spent Output Profit Ratio) has dropped to the range of 0.92–0.94, reflecting that most cryptocurrencies are being transferred at a loss, indicating that structural pressure still exists.The current macro environment provides a certain liquidity buffer for the cryptocurrency market, but it is still insufficient to support a sustained bull market. Bitcoin has tactical rebound potential in the short term, while long-term structural upward movement requires clearer signals of declining inflation and sustained spot demand support.

Analyst: The Bitcoin bear market is about to enter its second phase, and improvement in liquidity still needs to be awaited

Analyst Willy Woo states that I have bad news for those who are perpetually bullish: the bear market trend for Bitcoin is still ongoing and should be divided into three phases:Phase One ------ The Beginning. At this point, Bitcoin's liquidity has collapsed, a situation that occurred in the third quarter of 2025, and prices began to fall. Bitcoin, as a small-scale asset, is extremely sensitive to liquidity. Because of this, it often leads the global macroeconomy into a bear market, typically several months in advance. In other words, when smart money exits, Bitcoin reacts swiftly. During this phase, die-hard bulls will blindly claim that this is just a pullback within the bull market, but they cannot provide any solid evidence of capital inflows, only fabricating stories.Phase Two ------ The Global Stock Market Turns Bearish. This is a behemoth with a scale of up to $100 trillion, akin to a giant supertanker—moving slowly. This is the mid-phase of the Bitcoin bear market, where all risk assets are declining, and there is no doubt that we are in a bear market.Phase Three ------ Signs of Dawn. In this phase, liquidity begins to improve, capital outflows peak and stabilize. Investors are returning. The final price crash usually occurs during this phase, possibly shortly before or after the peak of capital outflows.Within the current bear market framework, Bitcoin is currently in Phase One, about to enter Phase Two.
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