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Liquid Capital (formerly LD Capital) founder Yi Lihua stated that peace negotiations typically move from disagreement to consensus. The motivation for continued warfare among all parties is weakening under the current circumstances, and the conflict may gradually come to an end. "We still insist that the war will end; neither side has any reason to continue fighting. Waiting for a rebound without taking profits, the moment an agreement is reached will be a bullish signal."He pointed out that, from a medium to long-term perspective, the market is generally waiting for a potential large-scale financial crisis. There are signs of defensive positioning on the funding side, such as large capital holding a high proportion of cash and sovereign entities increasing their gold holdings. In this context, if a crisis occurs again, it will be a key moment to test whether Bitcoin possesses the attributes of a safe-haven asset, and it may also present significant opportunities for low-position allocations.In addition, Yi Lihua believes that AI technology is bringing a new round of opportunities for outstanding entrepreneurs. A small number of teams can create global products, reducing financing and organizational management costs. Especially experienced serial entrepreneurs should seize this "AI Age of Exploration."

Data shows that the economic pressure on Bitcoin mining is intensifying. The current average production cost per coin is about $88,000, while the current Bitcoin price is approximately $69,200, meaning miners are losing nearly $19,000 per BTC, resulting in an overall loss of about 21%. Meanwhile, the overall mining difficulty has decreased by about 7.8%, marking the second-largest drop within 2026, reflecting the exit of computing power and rising network pressure.Analysis suggests that rising energy prices, combined with the tense situation in the Middle East, further increase mining costs. Electricity costs remain under pressure, and if miners are forced to sell Bitcoin to maintain operations, it could create additional selling pressure on the market. If Bitcoin prices continue to stay below the cost line and difficulty continues to decrease, the process of miners clearing out may continue, putting pressure on the spot market structure in the short term.

According to CoinDesk, Alex Thorn, head of research at Galaxy Digital, stated that the threat of quantum computing to Bitcoin is real, but it does not currently pose an imminent crisis. Investors should not misinterpret this long-term technological challenge as an immediate reason to avoid Bitcoin.Thorn pointed out that the current risk is limited to specific addresses with exposed public keys on-chain, including reused addresses, addresses held by certain custodians, and assets in old address formats. An analysis by security firm Project Eleven shows that approximately 7 million BTC (equivalent to about $47 billion at recent prices) are in this "long-term exposed" state, but they remain secure under current quantum computing capabilities.In terms of countermeasures, developers have advanced several proposals, including the introduction of new address types based on post-quantum cryptography, a "sandglass" mechanism that restricts spending permissions for permanently exposed public key addresses, and a phased upgrade path that fundamentally reduces the broadcasting of public keys in transactions.

According to Jinshi News, John Taylor, head of fixed income at Aptus Capital Advisors, stated that the Federal Reserve meeting will undoubtedly be influenced to some extent by the Middle East conflict and rising oil prices. This meeting may determine the next direction of the market, with attention on the dot plot and the divergences among Federal Reserve officials, as well as any wording hints regarding commodity supply shocks in Powell's press conference. After the surge in oil prices, the market has canceled the rate cut expectations from earlier this year, but if the conflict ends quickly, these expectations will be rapidly repriced.

QCP's analysis states that the continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz has led to rising energy prices, with Brent crude oil reaching $83 per barrel and Dutch natural gas prices increasing by 50% to $55, severely impacting the global supply chain. This conflict has exposed the vulnerabilities of the AI and technology sectors. South Korea, as a major semiconductor producer, has seen its KOSPI index drop 20% from its peak, with major constituents Samsung and SK Hynix severely affected by the disruption in energy supply.Notably, amidst market turmoil, Bitcoin has shown strong resilience, potentially signaling a shift in risk appetite. Analysts expect the market to remain volatile in the coming week, but due to the global dependence on chips, semiconductors, and AI-driven growth, it is anticipated that all parties will jointly pressure Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, with China urging Iran to keep the strait open.

Javier Blas, a columnist for Bloomberg focusing on energy and commodities, wrote that the Iranian attacks have a severe impact on oil prices but are not a shock.Blas's article points out that the market is most concerned about whether both sides will target energy infrastructure and the forced closure of tanker routes. Neither of these has happened yet. There is still no indication of this. Despite fears that Iran might set fire to the Middle Eastern energy industry, targeting oil fields, refineries, and export terminals, Tehran has not yet weaponized oil. Israel and the United States have also not targeted Iran's oil infrastructure.Analysts say that oil prices are likely to soar, but even the most bullish traders are talking about a possible rise to $100 per barrel, which is far below the $139 per barrel peak reached after the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict in 2022, and the record $147.50 per barrel in 2008. Viewed through that wide-angle lens, this time in the Middle East is unlikely to trigger an oil shock.Additionally, although the physical market has been weak, the financial oil market has remained bullish, with traders rushing to buy oil in anticipation of rising prices. A year ago, the 12-day war between Israel and the United States caught many traders off guard, triggering a wave of buying that caused crude oil prices to spike. This time, the number of bullish positions is at one of the highest levels in the past decade. Therefore, oil traders are better prepared to absorb this crisis.

According to Jin Shi reports, the situation has become more chaotic as Iran launched missiles at U.S. military bases in Gulf cities, airlines suspended flights, and oil tankers carrying oil and other products halted passage through the Strait of Hormuz.Rong Ren Goh, portfolio manager of the fixed income team at Hanya Investment, stated that the tail risks in the Middle East have increased. The market will reprice, shifting from geopolitical shocks to regime risk shocks and long-term conflicts, rather than just retaliatory actions, unless Iran expresses a willingness to negotiate.Analysts believe that a greater risk lies in the complacency of the market. The market has long assumed that the impact of the conflict will be limited and has dismissed comparisons of this conflict to the 1979 Iranian regime change.Barclays analysts noted that history strongly suggests not to chase prices when conflicts erupt, but rather to "sell the news." However, it is concerning that investors have now become accustomed to the "sell the news" mentality and may underestimate the risk of the situation spiraling out of control. It is advised not to buy any dips immediately. If the stock market corrects sufficiently, such as a drop of over 10% in the S&P 500, then a buying opportunity may arise. But that time is not now.

According to local time on the 28th, the Iranian Ministry of Interior issued a statement regarding the US and Israeli airstrikes on Iran, stating that "the enemy ignores all international laws and acts recklessly during negotiations." It emphasized that the Ministry of Interior will use all its power to maintain social order, and the Minister of Interior has already issued orders to the governors of all provinces, requiring them to mobilize all resources to meet the needs of the people.The statement also mentioned that the Ministry of Interior has established a National Crisis Management Headquarters and has issued necessary instructions to all provincial crisis management departments and relevant agencies. The statement called on the public to remain calm and to arrange urban and intercity travel according to the actual situation, while also urging the public to pay attention to news released by official channels and not to believe rumors and false news.

According to Jinshi, Schmid expects that the Federal Reserve's balance sheet size will not return to pre-financial crisis levels.

Author of "Rich Dad Poor Dad" Robert Kiyosaki posted on platform X, stating that although the crypto market is still in a downturn, he has chosen to increase his holdings by buying 1 Bitcoin at a price of $67,000 for two reasons:When the U.S. debt issue impacts the dollar system, "massive money printing" will be initiated, and the Federal Reserve will once again print "trillions of dollars in fiat currency";The total supply limit of 21 million Bitcoins is nearing full mining, and when the "21st million Bitcoin" is mined, Bitcoin will have an advantage over gold.

QCP Capital stated in an official channel that, on a macro level, the clouds of a government shutdown in the U.S. have dissipated, but the key takeaway is that fiscal standoffs may quickly resurface. Funding for the Department of Homeland Security has only been extended until February 13, which means another deadline risk still exists. Additionally, after the U.S. shot down an Iranian drone approaching the "USS Abraham Lincoln" aircraft carrier in the Arabian Sea, crude oil prices are rebuilding a moderate geopolitical risk premium, but news on the diplomatic front continues to limit its upside potential.Domestically in the U.S., the political maneuvering surrounding the Federal Reserve is heating up again. Trump has nominated Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve Chair, which reintroduces uncertainty. If investors begin to bet on the increased likelihood of larger rate cuts later this year, this could marginally support risk assets and weaken the dollar, but it will also shift attention to the balance sheet. Warsh has indicated a preference for a quicker reduction of the balance sheet, which will directly impact the underlying liquidity mechanisms of the repo market.A disturbing reminder is that pressure may suddenly emerge when reserves are short at critical junctures. The options market has reinforced cautious signals. Even amidst spot rebounds, short-term (front-end) implied volatility still has buying support, and at-the-money option volatility remains elevated, with the term structure trending towards a slight spot premium, indicating that the market is still paying a premium for the risk of recent price gaps. The downward skew has steepened sharply, and butterfly spread options remain expensive, reflecting that demand is concentrated on convexity protection against a collapse.From a tactical perspective, $75,000 is a key turning point. If it can be held and positions are rebuilt with funding rates returning to normal, this level seems to be a reasonable place to increase risk exposure. If it fails to hold, market sentiment may quickly shift to a defensive stance.

According to Bloomberg, Bitcoin briefly fell below $76,000 during light trading over the weekend, retreating about 40% from its 2025 peak, marking the longest monthly losing streak since 2018.Market participants pointed out that this round of decline was not triggered by panic selling or systemic risks, but rather the result of the disappearance of buying interest, liquidity contraction, and weakened confidence. Data shows that Bitcoin has been slow to respond to geopolitical tensions, a weakening dollar, and rebounds in risk assets, while recent volatility in precious metals has not led to a rotation of funds. Spot ETFs have seen continuous net outflows, institutional buying has noticeably cooled, and market depth remains over 30% lower than the peak in October last year. Analysts generally believe that the adjustment cycle has not yet ended. Kaiko expects that Bitcoin may need another 6 to 9 months to see a substantial recovery; some institutions also warn that Bitcoin may struggle to reach new highs within the next 1,000 days. Overall, price, correlation, and market sentiment are all under pressure simultaneously.

Former Coinbase CTO and angel investor Balaji Srinivasan stated today that the signs of a fiat currency crisis are already emerging, and physical gold is susceptible to government seizure (as seen with Roosevelt's order in 1933), while digital gold like Bitcoin has greater resistance to seizure due to its invisibility and programmability.In the article, Balaji noted that the gold reserves of BRICS countries have surged since the 2008 financial crisis, indicating a shift in the East towards tangible assets, but the internet will replace the dollar-dominated Keynesianism with digital assets.Balaji concluded that for people in sovereign debt crisis countries like North America and Western Europe, gold may not necessarily be the best safe-haven asset, and Bitcoin is a hedge worth considering.

At the 2026 World Economic Forum in Davos, Zhao Changpeng stated that technology itself does not bring risks, but rather accelerates the exposure of existing problems, pointing out that the root of the banking liquidity crisis lies in the "fractional reserve system." He cited Binance as an example, stating that the platform once handled withdrawals of up to $7 billion in a single day, with no overall pressure.Zhao Changpeng predicted that with the maturity of blockchain and KYC technology, the number of physical bank branches will significantly decrease in the next decade. At the same time, he expressed reservations about direct payments in Bitcoin and Meme coins, believing that Meme coins are highly speculative, and the vast majority will struggle to last, with only a few like Dogecoin potentially enduring due to their cultural value.

According to a report by Bloomberg, Elliptic's report shows that the Central Bank of Iran has purchased over $500 million worth of dollar-pegged digital assets in the past year to cope with the currency crisis and evade U.S. sanctions.The analysis company stated that the Central Bank of Iran made two purchases of USDT in April and May 2025, with the initial funds flowing to an Iranian crypto exchange where users can hold, trade USDT, or exchange it for rials.The report pointed out that due to limited oil exports, the inability to repatriate export revenues, and exclusion from the SWIFT system, Iran's foreign exchange reserves have been continuously decreasing, impairing the central bank's ability to defend the rial's value and curb inflation. The use of stablecoins helps Iran establish a "sanctions-resistant" banking mechanism and form a "shadow financial layer" that can hold dollar value without being regulated by U.S. authorities. Previously, Chainalysis reported that the scale of Iran's cryptocurrency ecosystem grew to approximately $7.78 billion in 2025.