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Cryptanalysis expert Murphy stated that BTC is currently fluctuating around $65,000, a position close to the range of the 10y_RP indicator. This indicator, after excluding the impact of most lost BTC costs, is considered a more accurate reflection of the "historical average turnover cost." This range may serve as an important psychological and cost defense line for bulls. A significant drop below this level could indicate that the current downward trend is likely to continue on a deeper bearish path.

Cryptocurrency analyst Michaël van de Poppe stated that the recent pullback in Bitcoin has led to a significant surge in realized losses, reaching an all-time high. This is one of the largest realized loss events in Bitcoin's history, comparable to the 2018 bear market crash, the March 2020 COVID-19 plunge, and the loss peaks during the 2022 Luna/FTX collapse.A large number of holders are capitulating, either selling at a loss or transferring their BTC while in a losing position. Such extreme loss realization typically indicates panic selling in the market and passive liquidations. Historically, similar large-scale surges in realized losses often occur at or near cyclical bottoms, as this represents the complete clearing out of "weak hands" and high-leverage positions.It is noteworthy that the Sharpe Ratio has dropped to its lowest level since the last bottom; the market is experiencing a massive capitulation event with extremely high realized losses; market sentiment has nearly reached a freezing point. The only difference this time is that Bitcoin is down about 50% from its historical high, rather than 80%. The bottom is near.

CryptoQuant posted on platform X that the short-term Sharpe ratio of Bitcoin has reached an all-time high, a level that typically only occurs in generational buy zones. After each previous extreme negative reading, there has been a strong rebound, setting new highs.

According to CoinDesk, BTC is set to decline for the fifth consecutive week, marking the longest losing streak since 2022.At the same time, BTC is facing a fifth consecutive month of decline, which is the second longest losing streak in history, only behind the six-month downturn from 2018 to 2019.

Eric Trump stated in an interview with CNBC at the World Liberty Forum that, based on the historical average annual increase of 70%, Bitcoin will reach $1 million.In addition, Eric Trump emphasized that the Trump family's crypto project serves the "most pro-crypto president," promoting deregulation and innovation.

Cryptocurrency researcher anıl posted on the X platform that, based on historical data, when the MVRV Z-Score drops below 0, especially below -0.20, Bitcoin is at its price low point. In this cycle, the lowest value Bitcoin reached was +0.26, which means the classic "green zone" has not yet been tested. In every previous major cycle, the Z-Score has entered negative territory. If this value enters negative territory again, it could signal the most attractive medium to long-term risk-reward ratio range for Bitcoin.

Cryptanalysis expert Maartunn posted on the X platform, stating that the BTC contract open interest has decreased by 55% from its historical peak, marking the largest drop since April 2023.

According to Decrypt, if Bitcoin closes lower, it will record its fifth consecutive month of decline, setting the longest losing streak since the 2018 bear market. The current decline has reached 13.98%. Since its all-time high, Bitcoin has accumulated a decline of 52.44%, just 3.82 percentage points away from the maximum drawdown of the 2018 bear market, taking only 123 days.The total market capitalization of the overall cryptocurrency market is reported at $2.33 trillion, down 1.33% in the past 24 hours. Although the Fear and Greed Index has risen from 8 to 12, it remains in the "extreme fear" range. The prediction market Myriad traders currently bet that Bitcoin is more likely to reach $55,000 before $84,000, with a probability of 60%.Technical analysis shows that Bitcoin's price is still operating below the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA200), and the EMA200 is below the EMA50, indicating that bearish momentum is dominant. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 34.7, in the bearish range; the Average Directional Index (ADX) has reached 56.4, indicating a strong current downtrend.Analysis points out that to reverse the trend, Bitcoin needs to reclaim the $100,000 level or form a structural reversal pattern with consistently higher lows. Currently, the market still appears to be in a historically prolonged downtrend phase.

Chase, the former head of listings at Binance, stated in an interview, "The Binance listing team has a total of more than a dozen people, with 4 of us, including myself, who can actually engage with projects. In my two and a half years here, I have reviewed over 1,000 crypto projects, and I estimate that around 100 projects will have their tokens listed on Binance (including Alpha) in 2025. The ratio of projects that can be listed after communicating with the founders is about 5% to 10%. Bitcoin will definitely reach a historical high in 2026.In a week of 2025, after Bitcoin's daily K-line rose continuously for 7 days with the same amplitude and trading volume, it suddenly dropped. This pattern indicates the presence of a strong "whale" that can control the entire chip situation. I understand this as someone or a group wanting to announce to the world that the price of Bitcoin is now under their control, and they hope that those who understand will join in.Market makers do not look at fundamentals but only at the liquidity they believe in. Therefore, the above situation either belongs to the market liquidity at that time being controlled by a few market makers with the same algorithm, or it is that a certain group with chips believes that other groups will not participate in trading during that time period."

According to GMGN data, the market capitalization of the Base ecosystem meme coin AntiHunter briefly surpassed $12.6 million, setting a new historical high, with a 24-hour trading volume of $4.6 million and a 6-hour increase of 60%.Meme coin trading is highly volatile, largely relying on market sentiment and conceptual speculation, with no actual value or use case. Investors should be aware of the risks.

According to Token Terminal data, the weekly transaction count on Ethereum reached a historic high of 17.3 million transactions; meanwhile, the median transaction fee has dropped to an all-time low, indicating that the scaling upgrades are having an effect.

BTC Fear and Greed Index has dropped to 5, indicating extreme fear, which is the lowest level in the history of the index.According to market news.

ValidatorQueue data shows that the Ethereum staking amount has surpassed 30% of the circulating supply, reaching 30.27%, marking a new milestone.Meanwhile, investors are still queuing in the validator queue to deposit $8 billion worth of pending staking tokens, also setting a historical high.

Chairman of Bitmine, Tom Lee, stated that Ethereum may experience a new round of V-shaped rebound after a recent decline, and it is currently close to the bottom range. He pointed out that since 2018, Ethereum has gone through 8 cycles of declines exceeding 50%, and all 8 have rebounded at a similar pace and achieved a 100% recovery.Despite the pressure on price performance, on-chain data shows that the demand for ETH staking remains strong. Currently, the waiting time for validators has risen to a historical high of 71 days, with approximately 4 million ETH queued for staking, and the total staking accounts for 30.3% of the circulating supply (about 36.7 million ETH).

According to Token Terminal data, the Ethereum staking rate has exceeded 30%, reaching a historic high.

Former Multicoin co-founder Kyle Samani predicts that in the next 18 months, advancements in the microstructure of the Solana on-chain market will surpass any other period in cryptocurrency history. Notable expectations include:Alpenglow: A major upcoming consensus mechanism upgrade for Solana, representing one of the largest protocol-level changes in Solana's history.ACE (Application Controlled Execution): Application controlled execution is a key innovation in Solana's core roadmap.MCL (Multi-Concurrent Block Production): Future upgrades for Solana will allow multiple leaders to propose blocks simultaneously, significantly increasing throughput and reducing latency, while improving transaction inclusion times and censorship resistance.PropAMMs (Proprietary Automated Market Makers): Deployed privately by professional market makers/institutions, using real-time price oracles to update quotes and actively manage liquidity, typically not accepting permissionless deposits.Aggregators: Aggregators like Jupiter and Dflow aggregate liquidity from multiple DEXs, AMMs, PropAMMs, etc., to find the optimal execution path for users, providing the lowest slippage and best prices.Conditional liquidity: Prevents market makers from being front-run, allowing them to offer tighter spreads, ultimately resulting in better trade prices and deeper liquidity.Overall improvements to SVM and the scheduler: Including optimizations for compute units, asynchronous program execution (APE), scheduling algorithm upgrades, etc., making programs run faster, more resource-efficient, and supporting higher concurrency.

Kaiko Research analysis indicates that Bitcoin fell to around $59,930 earlier this month, marking a new low since October 2024, which may signify the "midpoint" of the current bear market. The market has moved away from the post-halving frenzy phase and entered a typical bear market period that usually lasts about 12 months, paving the way for the next accumulation phase.On-chain indicators and the performance of mainstream crypto assets show that the market is approaching key technical support levels, which will determine whether the four-year cycle framework continues. The spot trading volume on major centralized exchanges has decreased from about $1 trillion in October 2025 to $700 billion in November, a drop of approximately 30%. The total open interest in Bitcoin and Ethereum futures has also decreased from $29 billion to $25 billion, indicating ongoing market deleveraging. With multi-cycle oversold indicators emerging, the question of Bitcoin's rebound is more about "when it will happen" rather than "if it will happen."

At the "Build and Scale in 2026" themed forum recently held by ChainCatcher in Hong Kong, Hunter, co-founder of the Web3 asset data platform RootData, delivered a speech on "Rebuilding Trust in the Crypto Market," proposing a new assessment system for crypto exchanges centered around "transparency."Hunter pointed out that the crypto industry currently faces the core pain point of severe "black box operations" and distorted traditional trading volume rankings. To address this issue, RootData has innovatively proposed six assessment dimensions for the transparency of crypto exchanges, covering: asset reserve transparency, compliance and auditing, token economics and unlocking, information disclosure mechanisms, listing standardization, and team and institutional endorsement.Hunter emphasized that this assessment system has abandoned the "volume-only theory," transforming "trust" into quantifiable and comparable dynamic data. This system was first unveiled last December at the Binance Blockchain Week in Dubai and is currently open for applications from exchanges worldwide.

According to Gate market data, during the U.S. trading session on Friday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average historically broke through the 50,000-point mark, marking the latest milestone achieved by the U.S. economy after years of strong growth. Chris Hyzy, Chief Investment Officer at Bank of America Merrill Lynch Private Bank, stated that opportunities in the U.S. market are not over yet. Although the Dow is steadily moving towards the 100,000-point threshold, price pressures and weak job growth remain warning signals.