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omi

Next week's macro outlook: US CPI alongside the decisions of two major central banks, SpaceX IPO is coming in strong

According to Jinshi reports, after the release of significantly better-than-expected non-farm payroll data on Friday, market expectations for the Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes this year surged, causing spot gold to plummet sharply, nearly erasing all gains for the year, marking a fourth consecutive week of declines. Silver's overall trend mirrored that of gold but with slightly stronger volatility, closing down 9.85% for the week. The U.S. dollar index, buoyed by the unexpected non-farm data, rose significantly to just above the 100 mark. Following the non-farm data on Friday, U.S. tech stocks suffered heavy losses. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed down 1.35%, the S&P 500 index fell 2.65%, marking the largest single-day drop since October 2025; the Nasdaq dropped 4.18%, the largest single-day decline since April 2025.Goldman Sachs believes that the current market sentiment is clearly more greedy than fearful. Deutsche Bank pointed out that the market is highly sensitive to any negative news involving Iran. Here are the key points the market will focus on in the new week (all times are in Beijing time):Monday 23:00, U.S. May New York Fed 1-year inflation expectations;Tuesday 14:00, Germany April seasonally adjusted industrial production month-on-month, April seasonally adjusted trade balance;Tuesday 18:00, U.S. May NFIB Small Business Confidence Index;Tuesday 20:15, U.S. ADP employment change for the week ending May 23;Wednesday 20:30, U.S. May unadjusted CPI, May seasonally adjusted CPI/core CPI month-on-month;Wednesday 21:45, Bank of Canada announces interest rate decision;Thursday 20:15, European Central Bank announces interest rate decision;Thursday 20:30, U.S. initial jobless claims for the week ending June 6, May PPI year-on-year/month-on-month;Friday 14:00, Germany May CPI month-on-month final value;Friday 14:45, France May CPI month-on-month final value;Friday 22:00, U.S. June 1-year inflation expectations preliminary value, June University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index preliminary value.In the coming week, the market will face a series of important events, but the most anticipated remains the potential initial public offering (IPO) of SpaceX. According to current plans, this transaction may launch on Friday, and if it proceeds, it is expected to have a significant impact on overall market sentiment, although the specific direction is still difficult to determine.In addition to SpaceX, the Apple Worldwide Developers Conference, earnings reports, and TSMC's May sales data may also become important factors influencing market volatility. Next week, U.S. stocks will enter a relatively calm phase of earnings season; although the overall number of reports is not large, heavyweight tech companies Oracle and Adobe will take the stage one after another, becoming the focus of market attention.

Grayscale: Bitcoin may enter a recovery period in the coming months, but forming a sustainable bottom still requires new buying support

Grayscale's research director Zach Pandl stated that after Strategy disclosed the sale of 32 BTC on June 1, it triggered a new round of volatility in the BTC market. He pointed out that the scale of the sale itself is not important, as Strategy still holds approximately 840,000 BTC on its balance sheet, valued at about $5.5 billion. However, as one of the largest digital asset treasury managers in the world, its strategic shift puts pressure on market sentiment.Pandl believes that more importantly, the recent volatility affects the price of Strategy's variable rate preferred stock tool STRC. STRC is designed to maintain a price of about $100 per share, with a current dividend yield of 11.5%. If the stock price falls below $100, it means investors are demanding a higher return. Strategy can increase dividends, but this will increase future cash flow obligations and may lead to more BTC sales, further suppressing BTC prices. Strategy's leveraged business model is under pressure, increasing volatility across the entire BTC market.At the current levels of STRC and MSTR stock prices, Grayscale believes that Strategy's ability to continue accumulating more BTC is limited. However, Grayscale believes that in the long term, reducing the BTC on the leveraged digital asset treasury balance sheet and allowing more BTC to be distributed across diversified corporate balance sheets will benefit the health of the Bitcoin ecosystem. But before a sustainable bottom for BTC prices is formed, other buyers need to enter the market. Grayscale expects BTC prices to recover in the coming months, but in the short term, BTC's performance may lag behind other segments of the crypto market that directly benefit from regulatory clarity.
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