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After experiencing a significant sell-off last week, an important on-chain metric for Bitcoin—MVRV Z-Score—is approaching the historical bear market bottom region, indicating that market prices are gradually aligning with on-chain realized value, and the worst phase of the decline may be nearing its end. Data shows that the current Bitcoin MVRV Z-Score is 0.24, close to the zero axis, which is historically regarded as the "green accumulation zone." During past bear markets in 2011-2012, 2014, 2018, and 2022, this metric bottomed out near zero or briefly dipped below zero before starting a new upward cycle.The MVRV Z-Score measures the deviation between Bitcoin's current market value and its realized value. When market prices are significantly above the realized value, it indicates that Bitcoin is relatively expensive; conversely, when prices are close to or below the realized value, it suggests that the market has entered an undervalued area. However, analysts believe that the market may not have formed an absolute bottom yet. On-chain data shows that the short-term holder MVRV (STH-MVRV) is currently at 0.84, while the long-term holder MVRV (LTH-MVRV) remains as high as 1.29, and neither has converged like during the bear market bottoms of 2015, 2019, and 2022. This indicates that long-term holders still retain significant unrealized profits, and the market may still need to undergo further adjustments to form a typical bear market bottom.However, after the cryptocurrency market evaporated hundreds of billions in market value last week, several historical signals indicating market recovery have begun to emerge.

Glassnode co-founder Rafael posted an analysis of the recent Bitcoin price trend on the X platform, noting that the current Bitcoin price is in the $62,000 range, having dropped nearly 50% from its all-time high, with a decline of 24% over the past month. The price has crossed the upper range of its pricing framework, entering a valuation cluster area where historical cycles have previously shown bottoms.Rafael further pointed out that market bottoms cannot be confirmed in advance and can only be defined through probability ranges and key price levels to identify potential bottom signals. Bitcoin has fallen below the median holder breakeven line for the first time since December 2022, currently situated within a broader support range: the median realized price is approximately $64,100, and the 200-week moving average price is around $61,700.The current high-probability bottom range may be between $46,000 and $54,000, with a rare "sell-off tail" below that range of $35,000 to $40,000. It is important to note that the magnitude of cyclical pullbacks is gradually decreasing: previous rounds of lows saw declines of about 85%, 84%, and 77%, while this round has only dropped about 50%, indicating that a high-probability bottom is more likely to be in the upper range, though extreme sell-off possibilities cannot be ruled out.

According to Yu Jin, a whale borrowed approximately 44.42 million USDT through two addresses on Aave to leverage buy 25,851 ETH, with an entry price of about $1,718 per coin. One of the addresses has a position health of 1.23, corresponding to a liquidation price of about $1,355.

Jiang Zhuoer, the founder of the Liebit Mining Pool (B.TOP), stated that he has repurchased all previously sold Ethereum positions at an average price of $1,645, after clearing positions in the range of $2,200 to $2,400. Although the repurchase operation has been completed, he believes that the overall market is still in a downtrend, but Bitcoin has received support twice around $61,000 and has not effectively broken down, indicating a short-term technical rebound demand.Based on this judgment, Jiang Zhuoer expects Bitcoin to experience a rebound in the next 1 to 3 days and plans to sell the recently repurchased Ethereum positions again during the rebound process.

Grayscale's research director Zach Pandl stated that after Strategy disclosed the sale of 32 BTC on June 1, it triggered a new round of volatility in the BTC market. He pointed out that the scale of the sale itself is not important, as Strategy still holds approximately 840,000 BTC on its balance sheet, valued at about $5.5 billion. However, as one of the largest digital asset treasury managers in the world, its strategic shift puts pressure on market sentiment.Pandl believes that more importantly, the recent volatility affects the price of Strategy's variable rate preferred stock tool STRC. STRC is designed to maintain a price of about $100 per share, with a current dividend yield of 11.5%. If the stock price falls below $100, it means investors are demanding a higher return. Strategy can increase dividends, but this will increase future cash flow obligations and may lead to more BTC sales, further suppressing BTC prices. Strategy's leveraged business model is under pressure, increasing volatility across the entire BTC market.At the current levels of STRC and MSTR stock prices, Grayscale believes that Strategy's ability to continue accumulating more BTC is limited. However, Grayscale believes that in the long term, reducing the BTC on the leveraged digital asset treasury balance sheet and allowing more BTC to be distributed across diversified corporate balance sheets will benefit the health of the Bitcoin ecosystem. But before a sustainable bottom for BTC prices is formed, other buyers need to enter the market. Grayscale expects BTC prices to recover in the coming months, but in the short term, BTC's performance may lag behind other segments of the crypto market that directly benefit from regulatory clarity.

According to The Block, Geoffrey Kendrick, the head of digital asset research at Standard Chartered Bank, stated that "the bottom has almost appeared" for Bitcoin after a recent sharp decline, with the current range of about $63,000 being a "buying range." He pointed out that since February, the overall holdings of the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF have remained stable, with no concentrated redemptions that would raise concerns, indicating that funds are more "structurally stable."Kendrick expects that after the recent selling pressure triggered by Strategy's sale of 32 BTC, there may be a buyback at a scale of 10 times or even 100 times, following historical practices, which could signal the confirmation of a temporary low. He also cautioned that there is still a downside risk of Bitcoin falling below $60,000, but believes that buying in batches is preferable to trying to time the bottom precisely. The bank maintains its year-end targets of $100,000 for Bitcoin and $4,000 for Ethereum.

Glassnode data shows that as Bitcoin briefly fell to $61,300, the number of BTC in an unrealized loss state rose to approximately 10.5 million, surpassing the 9.8 million in a profit state for the first time, accounting for over half of the total circulating supply. This is the first occurrence in this cycle where the number of loss chips exceeds the number of profit chips. Historical data indicates that this metric has only appeared during deep bear market phases and has often corresponded with significant market bottoms. Similar situations occurred during the bear markets of 2015, 2019, 2020, and 2022, although the duration varied from one month to a year.Meanwhile, the Bitcoin price touched approximately $61,300, which is the 200-week moving average, a level that has consistently formed key long-term support during past bear markets. Analysts believe that if BTC falls below the $60,000 threshold, the next important support level will be around the realized price of approximately $54,000, and Bitcoin has historically fallen below the realized price during major bear markets.

Ki Young Ju, the founder of CryptoQuant, posted on social media that the price of Bitcoin is the same now as it was two years ago, but one thing has changed. The "6 months to 2 years" holding group that entered during this cycle currently accounts for 53% of the realized market cap, while two years ago this proportion was only 15%. In the previous cycle, when this proportion reached 68%, Bitcoin bottomed out. Currently, short-term holders are gradually evolving into long-term holders.

According to monitoring by Lookonchain, the whale known for "buying the dip during market crashes," 7 Siblings, has taken action again. About 1 hour ago, it borrowed 10 million USDT from the Spark protocol and then purchased 5,589 ETH at an average price of approximately $1,789, with a total value of about 10 million dollars.

Gold supporter and long-time Bitcoin critic Peter Schiff recently stated that he believes there is excessive optimism in the current Bitcoin market, and that it is still a long way from truly bottoming out. Schiff predicts that if Bitcoin falls below the $50,000 mark, the price could quickly drop further to below $20,000, shaking the confidence of long-term holders (HODLers) and triggering a larger-scale sell-off.Schiff also mentioned that the market needs to pay attention to whether a decline in Bitcoin will become a precursor to a broader adjustment in risk assets. If a Bitcoin crash is limited to the crypto market, it may be due to factors within the industry itself; however, if it simultaneously affects stocks and other risk assets, it could indicate that deeper macro risks are accumulating.He further pointed out that in such a scenario, investors may turn back to gold, cash, and other traditional safe-haven assets, seeking higher security and certainty.

Famous trader and chart analyst Peter Brandt, who successfully predicted the Bitcoin crash in 2018, stated yesterday that Bitcoin is currently forming an expanding triangle pattern, which is relatively common and usually reliable in Bitcoin's history, with a target based on projecting the height of the pattern from the breakout point.According to the measurement rules for the expanding triangle: Target = height of the pattern projected downward from the breakout point. The attached diagram shows a widening triangle (with the upper and lower bounds gradually diverging). The breakout point is roughly around $74,000 (marked as 74,395 in the diagram), and after projecting the height of the pattern (from the highest point to the lowest point of the widest part of the triangle), the arrow points to the area around $56,000.

Tom Lee stated that the recent market anxiety, including the slight sale of Bitcoin by Strategy, is typical bottoming behavior rather than a deep-seated crisis. Michael Saylor sold 32 Bitcoins at an average price of $77,135, raising approximately $2.5 million to pay preferred stock dividends. This sale accounted for only 0.004% of the company's over 843,700 Bitcoin holdings. Furthermore, regarding the outflow of $3.4 billion from the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF for 11 consecutive days, Tom Lee believes that capital outflow is a classic lagging indicator of market cycle reset. Bitmine's macro strategy has not changed, and its plan to purchase 111,942 Ethereum for approximately $237 million is still underway, with its Ethereum holdings currently reaching nearly 5.4 million.

According to information from a third-party data platform, Bitcoin's Ahr999 has once again fallen below 0.45 after a month, reporting at 0.4322. As a result, this indicator has returned to the "bottom-buying range." This indicator was created by ahr999 and aims to assist Bitcoin dollar-cost averaging users in making investment decisions based on timing strategies. The indicator implies the yield of short-term Bitcoin dollar-cost averaging and the deviation of Bitcoin's price from its expected valuation.Historically, the Ahr999 index for Bitcoin has been below the bottom line (0.45) for 572 days. The dollar-cost averaging range is 0.45-1.2, representing a relatively reasonable range for Bitcoin prices, suitable for adhering to a regular investment strategy.

Liquid Capital founder Yi Lihua posted on platform X, stating that in the last cycle, "there were eight correct operations and one wrong one," but the cost of a single mistake was significant; however, the related losses mainly belong to the previous profit pullback.Yi Lihua mentioned that after this round of rebound ends, he will fully prepare to bottom out in the new round of market trends, while dedicating more than half of his time and energy to AI stocks and AI investment research, and stated, "Optimists always choose to believe in trends; only by believing can one avoid panicking at crypto lows and AI highs."

Well-known trader Killa (@KillaXBT) posted that, from the perspective of the 180-day actual price, the time investors have been in a loss state during this adjustment may not be sufficient.Historical experience shows that bear markets are usually accompanied by prolonged periods of continuous losses, with many investors remaining in unrealized losses for a long time. If historical patterns repeat, the current adjustment cycle may require more time to digest, and the market may still need to go through a longer bottoming process.

Analyst Murphy stated that by observing the "short-term capital on-chain activity weight" (i.e., the proportion of the dollar value represented by short-term chip turnover) as an on-chain indicator, we can assess the current BTC market status. This indicator reflects the latest short-term trading behaviors such as speculation, arbitrage, profit-taking, or panic selling. Currently, this weight has dropped to historically low levels, appearing only in the bottom regions of bear markets over the past 15 years, indicating a significant cooling of short-term turnover, with economic value shifting towards long-term chip accumulation. The market is characterized by low volatility, consolidation, or clear bottom features.The analyst judges that based on this, the current market may be in one of three stages: bear market bottom; secondary bottom, which may still have one last drop; or consolidation before the bull market starts. However, under rational judgment, the pre-bull consolidation can be temporarily ruled out. It is currently not recommended to fully bet on a single scenario; a diversified position strategy is advised to cope with different outcomes, as the relative position of the long-term trend has indicated that Bitcoin is near the bottom.

Analyst Murphy stated that during the two bear market bottoms in February 2019 and January 2022, the number of BTC losses was 10.6 million coins. If this pattern continues in the current bear market, the corresponding bottom price would be around $60,000. Whenever the amount of BTC losses in circulation reaches a certain critical value, the supply side may become exhausted, making it difficult for the price to continue to decline. On February 5, 2026, when BTC fell to $60,000, the loss amount was close to 9.93 million coins. If it returns to $60,000 again, the current BTC chip structure's loss amount will reach 10.6 million coins, which may coincide with the previous bear market bottom.

According to The Block, crypto research firm K33 stated that despite Bitcoin's decline of about 6% after retesting the 200-day moving average of approximately $82,000 this month, the low of about $60,000 in February this year may still represent the largest pullback of this cycle.K33's research director Vetle Lunde pointed out that unlike the bear market rebounds in 2014, 2018, and 2022, this market has experienced a slow recovery lasting 189 days after breaking below the 200-day moving average, and market leverage and risk appetite have not been quickly rebuilt. Therefore, the current trend resembles a mild adjustment rather than a precursor to a new round of deep declines.K33 also noted that institutional capital flows still reflect a defensive sentiment. The latest 13F data shows that institutional investors collectively reduced their holdings by about 26,733 BTC in the first quarter, while retail investors increased their holdings by about 19,395 BTC; among them, neutral strategy firms like Jane Street and Millennium contributed most of the reduction.Additionally, Bitcoin ETFs recently recorded the ninth largest five-day outflow since the launch of the U.S. spot ETF. K33 believes this typically occurs when BTC approaches the ETF cost basis, reflecting that investors tend to stop losses or reduce risk exposure after experiencing a deep pullback.

According to monitoring by Hyperinsight, following a significant rise in HYPE this morning, there has been a slight pullback from the $47 high. Multiple addresses on Hyperliquid have placed buy orders in batches using TWAP (Time-Weighted Average Price) to build positions. As of the time of writing, a total of 8 traders plan to buy over 75,400 HYPE, corresponding to an amount of approximately $3.4 million.On the contract side, a recent large position by a whale (0x1ee) plans to go long on 50,000 HYPE with 10x leverage, valued at approximately $2.26 million, with an average price of $45.76. Currently, there are still about $1.29 million worth of buy orders being executed in batches. Address: 0x1ee7a73cb5b0b6b056d8138085b2009e6a6bedf5.

On-chain data analyst Murphy stated that the change in the relationship between cost basis and price behavior is one of the best perspectives for observing BTC forming a bottom structure, and the "1-3 month short-term holder cost basis" (1-3m_RP) is the most effective reference.The formation of each round of bear bottom structures is accompanied by a gradual shift in the short-term holder cost basis (1-3m_RP, yellow line). Taking previous cycles as examples: in 2015-2016, BTC oscillated around the short-term holder cost basis for a long time after first breaking through it; in 2019-2020, BTC strongly broke through the short-term holder cost basis and then entered a small bull market; in 2022-2023, BTC broke through the short-term holder cost basis, then retested it a second time, and after gaining support, rebounded again.Since BTC broke through on April 15, it has remained above the short-term holder cost basis. However, regardless of how the trend develops next, a bottom will eventually form, and BTC will break through the yellow line and inevitably turn. Analysts believe that the important thing is not to predict the specific trend, but to prepare in advance and allocate positions reasonably. The trends from previous years are only examples and not investment advice.