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Zhao Changpeng: There is no ability to influence the price of the cryptocurrency market; posting and the timing of positive news are purely coincidental

Binance founder Zhao Changpeng stated during the podcast "When Shift Happens" that he remains bullish on Bitcoin but denies having the ability to influence the price of the entire crypto market. Previously, on August 19, when Bitcoin was around the $60,000 range, Zhao Changpeng posted that if one wants their future self to thank today's decisions in two years, immediate action is needed. This post was interpreted by the market as a hint to buy Bitcoin, and in the following days, the crypto market rose by about 20%.Zhao Changpeng responded that he does not have the ability to drive the entire market price. He stated that he has always been bullish on the crypto industry, and almost all of his posts have a bullish tendency, posting 5 to 10 times a day, so it is not surprising that one of his posts coincidentally appeared before positive news.Zhao Changpeng mentioned that about 5 hours after the post was published, Trump gave a relatively positive speech about the crypto industry, mentioning the push for Hyperliquid to enter the U.S. market, but he did not know the content of the speech in advance. He emphasized that if he had any information that could affect the market, he would not post about it. Therefore, the post and the subsequent market rise were merely a coincidence in timing.Regarding the Bitcoin cycle, Zhao Changpeng stated that the crypto market has roughly followed a four-year cycle to date. At that time, some speculated that Bitcoin might bottom out in October, but he believes there is no need to wait until October to express a bullish view.

Analysis: The Bitcoin "Realized Market Value Momentum Indicator" has turned positive after 93 days, signaling a recovery in on-chain capital flow

The "Realized Cap Impulse" indicator for Bitcoin has recently ended a continuous 93-day negative state and has turned positive for the first time, marking the longest reversal signal after a capital contraction cycle since the bear market of 2022.This indicator measures the momentum of changes in the realized market capitalization by tracking the changes in realized cap, combined with factors of Bitcoin supply and price, to assess whether the flow of tokens with actual economic significance in the market is driving capital base expansion. The positive shift in the indicator does not merely reflect a price increase but indicates that the flow of funds within the Bitcoin network is changing.Data shows that the indicator broke above the zero axis on August 20 when the BTC price was around $73,000 and has maintained positive values for 8 consecutive days. Currently, the BTC price has risen to about $78,900, an increase of approximately 8% during this period.As of the latest, the indicator reading is 0.198, below the peak of 0.226 reached on August 26. Historical data indicates that similar signals at the end of bear markets have been accompanied by significant rebounds in Bitcoin: after the indicator turned positive in September 2015, Bitcoin rose about 160% within a year; after March 2019, it increased about 173% in 90 days; and after January 2023, it rose about 45% in 90 days, with a yearly increase of 104%.However, the realized cap momentum indicator is not an absolute signal of a cycle bottom. Similar positive shifts occurred in early 2018 and 2022, but the market did not immediately enter a sustained upward phase afterward. Analysts believe that the indicator's continued positive value, confirmed by price trends, is more valuable than a single-day breakthrough above the zero axis.

Analyst: Bitcoin's on-chain capital inflow has turned positive for the first time in nearly 3 months, but demand intensity remains at historically low levels

CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr. stated that the on-chain capital flow of Bitcoin showed directional improvement in the second half of August. The realized market cap relative net position change rose to +0.1% on August 24, marking the first positive shift since May 28, and has further increased to +0.21% as of today, indicating that the nearly three-month net capital outflow status has ended.Meanwhile, the 30-day apparent demand/new supply ratio for Bitcoin has been above 1 for six consecutive days, with the latest figure at 2.52, meaning the 30-day apparent demand is approximately 2.5 times the new BTC issuance during the same period. This indicator had dropped to -6.93 on August 2 and briefly rose to 3.16 on August 21. However, the absolute strength of both indicators remains relatively low. Since 2024, the median for periods of positive realized market cap has been +3.24%, while the current +0.21% is only at the lowest 3%-4% of positive samples; the historical median for the apparent demand ratio above 1 is 7.65, and the current 2.52 is also at the lowest 10%. It is believed that the more important signal currently is that the direction of capital flow has shifted from outflow to slight inflow, and demand has once again exceeded new supply, but a strong new demand cycle cannot yet be confirmed. Future observations are needed to see if the realized market cap can remain positive and if the apparent demand can further expand.

hot_img Overview of Trump's positive statements on cryptocurrency: Revealed that the U.S. government has discussed accumulating a substantial amount of Bitcoin; completely ending the war on cryptocurrency; urging the swift passage of the "Genius Act."

On Wednesday local time, U.S. President Trump met with executives from cryptocurrency and fintech companies such as Coinbase, Ripple, Robinhood, Gemini, and Chainlink in the Roosevelt Room of the White House and delivered a speech in support of cryptocurrencies.Trump stated that his administration has "completely ended the war on cryptocurrencies," and the industry is thriving. The U.S. must maintain its "undisputed leadership" in areas such as Bitcoin, cryptocurrencies, prediction markets, and artificial intelligence, and is committed to becoming the "world capital of cryptocurrency."He mentioned that the U.S. government has discussed accumulating a "significant amount" of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies, stating that cryptocurrencies "greatly alleviate the pressure on the dollar." At the same time, he urged Congress to pass a "fair version" of the Clarity Act, claiming this would allow the U.S. to lead over China and other countries.Trump also noted that the SEC chairman is working to bring Hyperliquid to the U.S. market in a compliant manner; and reviewed the policy achievements of the signed Genius Act (stablecoin legislation), strategic Bitcoin reserves, and the prohibition of CBDCs.
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