pwa

Darkfost posted on platform X that Bitcoin is approaching the average cost price of two types of holding groups: investors holding for 18 months to 2 years have an average cost price of about $88,350, while investors holding for 6 to 12 months have an average cost price of about $89,200.Darkfost pointed out that the cost price is the average holding cost of the group, not a natural support or resistance level; as the price approaches this range, the behavior of related investors may change, and this area can be seen as a potential risk zone. The group of investors holding for 6 to 12 months has overall been at a loss for nearly a year, with some investors possibly having bought in at market peaks; some investors may sell after breaking even, while others may continue to buy to lower their holding costs.

According to CoinDesk, after the U.S. August PCE inflation data came in lower than expected, Bitcoin briefly rose above $85,500, but the rally subsequently retreated as U.S. Treasury yields remained high.Dan Khus, Chief Analyst at LVRG Research, stated that the weaker PCE data reduced the likelihood of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates again in October, leading the market to focus more on policy changes in December, which boosted risk appetite in the crypto market.However, the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield remains close to 5.3%, and the 30-year yield briefly reached its highest level since 2002, limiting Bitcoin's further upside potential.In other crypto assets, HYPE rose about 3% to around $89, DOGE increased nearly 2% to around $0.1; ETH, BNB, TRX, and ZEC saw gains of less than 1%, XRP remained flat at $1.5, and SOL fell nearly 1% to around $119.

According to Lianhe Zaobao, U.S. President Trump rejected Iran's latest proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. This new round of macroeconomic uncertainty is putting pressure on risk assets, and Bitcoin has cooled off after several weeks of rapid gains, with its upward momentum stalling.In addition to geopolitical factors, the market continues to digest the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike measures and is also preparing for another possible rate hike in October. Since August 19, Bitcoin has risen by 28%, and now, Bitcoin is expected to achieve its best quarterly performance since the fourth quarter of 2024.

Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research Department's South Korea stock analyst Chris Cha stated in a report on September 23 that KOSPI has the conditions for a short-term tactical breakout, but the continuous flow of liquidity from South Korean retail investors into the cryptocurrency market will make the index's subsequent upward movement more reliant on foreign capital and local institutions reconfiguring. The report noted that concerns about the Federal Reserve's interest rates have been partially digested by the market, and risk appetite has shifted towards proxy AI themes.The report pointed out that South Korean memory chips provide fundamental support, with fourth-quarter DRAM contract prices expected to grow double digits quarter-on-quarter, and the ramp-up of HBM4 capacity will continue to limit the supply of standard server DRAM. Samsung Electronics' large shareholder returns, continuous buying by institutions, and foreign capital turning into net buying may drive KOSPI towards the resistance zone of 7000 to 7200 points.The report also indicated that the capacity of local South Korean retail investors to absorb has weakened. After Bitcoin returned to $85,000, cryptocurrency trading in South Korea has heated up. According to DefiLlama data cited in the report, Upbit's single-day spot trading volume on June 13 was approximately $770 million, which rose to $1.817 billion on September 22, an increase of about 136%. Based on the total trading volume of $3.27 billion on that day across South Korea's five major trading platforms, Upbit alone accounted for over half. Goldman Sachs believes this will make KOSPI more reliant on foreign and institutional buying in the future, and October is a critical window to test whether foreign capital will continue to increase its investment in South Korean semiconductor and AI assets.

According to CryptoQuant data, Bitcoin network hash rate has rebounded after ending a recent downward trend, indicating that miner activity has somewhat recovered.

According to Gate market data, Meta Platforms surged in pre-market trading after Citigroup placed Meta on its list of upward catalysts to watch for the next 90 days.

CryptoQuant analyst CW8900 stated that Bitcoin is breaking through the bottom and starting a bullish trend. The spent output profit ratio (SOPR) of long-term holders (LTH) is rising above 1, and the market is shifting from a bearish phase to a neutral one, initiating a comprehensive upward trend.He emphasized that in this cycle, the SOPR has not yet exceeded 6, while historically, cycle tops usually form within this range. This means that long-term holders have not yet experienced a profit-taking phase, and a true bull market rally has not yet occurred. Everything prior has been a preparatory phase for the current upward trend, with LTH holdings at historically high levels and continuing to increase until recently. He believes that the real upward trend is starting now, and the cycle top will appear in the profit-taking range when the SOPR exceeds 6.

CoinShares Research Director James Butterfill stated that Bitcoin is currently facing an "unusual combination"—short-term bearish and medium-term bullish factors are present at the same time.In the short term, the U.S. core CPI rose 0.3% month-on-month in August, higher than market expectations. Butterfill said, "The CPI data is marginally negative, increasing the probability of monetary policy tightening, which may limit Bitcoin's immediate upside potential." CME FedWatch data showed that market bets on the Federal Reserve's next rate hike reached as high as 85%.In the medium term, he pointed out that the U.S. Treasury's expanded bond buyback program has failed to effectively lower long-term yields. If this situation continues, it may force authorities to implement larger intervention measures, raising concerns about currency depreciation, which would instead benefit Bitcoin and gold valuations. CoinShares believes that Bitcoin's short-term upside may be limited to below $80,000.

Goldman Sachs continues to predict that gold prices will reach $4,900 per ounce by the end of 2026, and believes there are net upside risks. Goldman Sachs pointed out that if demand from central banks remains strong and ETF investor inflows recover, gold prices could far exceed the forecast. Additionally, if expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate hikes increase, it could lead to a sharp correction in gold prices.

According to CoinDesk, Bitcoin formed a golden cross earlier this week (the 50-day moving average crossing above the 200-day moving average), but subsequently did not experience a sustained increase, instead retreating from around $80,000 to about $77,000. It is noteworthy that most of the recent rise occurred before the golden cross—Bitcoin had previously risen from $62,000 to $82,000.The article points out that similar situations have historically repeated multiple times: after the golden cross in 2021, BTC fell from $52,000 to $40,000; after the golden cross in February 2023, it retreated from $23,000 to $20,000; after the golden cross in October 2024, it slid from $70,000 to $67,000; and after the golden cross in May 2025, it corrected from $110,000 to $100,000. Analysts believe that while the golden cross is seen as a long-term bullish signal, it may essentially be a lagging indicator, as a significant portion of the gains often have already been realized by the time the signal appears.

Jiang Zhuoer, the founder of the Liebit Mining Pool, posted on the X platform stating that Bitcoin is still operating within an upward channel, and a pullback is inevitable.If $82,300 is the previous high before the pullback, the pullback will show a "slow and back-and-forth wide fluctuation" trend. He is more optimistic about a rise to $83,000 to $84,000 before pulling back to $72,000.

Tom Lee stated during his appearance on CNBC: "I believe that there are actually very few people who truly hold cryptocurrencies. Because of this, I think Bitcoin can easily break through six figures (like over $100,000), but it may also be affected by interest rate hikes. As for how cryptocurrencies will perform, I think this will be a good test, but we have already seen long-term yields (interest rates) rising. So, if we see the Federal Reserve raising interest rates while long-term yields actually decline, that would essentially mean monetary easing. Therefore, the key may be how long-term yields respond to the Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes."He also added: "I think this is just the first wave of the rise because this round of cryptocurrency market has caught many people off guard. Well, I believe institutional investors are buying stocks related to cryptocurrencies, and this is very obvious—trading volume has surged significantly, which signals that they are betting on a big market in the fourth quarter. I think $150,000 is still possible, well, it's actually not that far from now."

According to DefiLlama data, since the end of July and the beginning of August, the total market capitalization of stablecoins has regained upward momentum, currently reported at $30.4564 billion, with a growth of 0.48% over the past week.Among the leading stablecoins, USDC and USD1 are the main contributors to the increase in supply over the past week, with USDC increasing by 0.76% and USD1 increasing by 3.71%. The market share of USDT is currently reported at 60.21%.

According to the latest MLCC industry research by TrendForce, South Korean giant Samsung Electro-Mechanics has recently taken the lead in raising prices for OEM and ODM customers for the fourth quarter of 2026, indicating that the MLCC industry has officially entered an upward trend. TrendForce estimates that Samsung Electro-Mechanics will raise the prices of consumer-grade X5R products for OEM and ODM customers by an average of 25% to 30%, in order to suppress order willingness and free up capacity to expand high-end production lines.The high-end X6S products used in AI servers will see an average price increase of 10% to 20% depending on customer negotiations. Japanese manufacturers Murata, TDK, and Kyocera are currently taking a wait-and-see approach, maintaining stable prices, and whether they will follow up with price adjustments will be key to observing whether the upward trend can expand.

XRP has dropped 6.23% in the past 24 hours to around $1.38, making it the token with the largest decline among the top ten cryptocurrencies by market capitalization. Previously, XRP surged from around $1 on August 18 to $1.69, an astonishing increase within four days, briefly touching the psychological level of $1.7.The pullback is mainly due to leveraged liquidations. XRP has still risen 35.55% over the past week, second only to Hyperliquid's 38.65% weekly increase. Notably, XRP-related ETFs have recorded net inflows for nine consecutive days, indicating that institutions have not withdrawn, and the issue mainly lies in the leverage aspect rather than capital outflows.After breaking through $80,000 on Tuesday, Bitcoin has retreated to around $78,000, dragging down the overall altcoin market. The market is awaiting tonight's core PCE inflation data and Nvidia's earnings report; whether XRP can hold the $1.4 support level will determine if this rally is a healthy correction or a further decline.

"Whale" Jason stated, "Set 10 major goals." He indicated that he will look for opportunities to re-enter long positions. He believes that the strength of this trend exceeds previous expectations, and the subsequent space can be further adjusted upwards; even re-entering at $80,000 or higher would not be too late, as BTC still has upward potential.He anticipates that $100,000 is likely to arrive earlier than originally expected, at which point the further height of this trend will be reassessed.

Bitget Research Institute Chief Analyst Ryan Lee stated that driven by multiple favorable factors such as the continuous net inflow of the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF for five days, large-scale short liquidations, the U.S. Treasury's expansion of long-term bond repurchases leading to a drop in yields and a weakening dollar, as well as signals from the Trump administration indicating a pro-crypto regulatory stance, Bitcoin has broken through the $80,000 mark, reaching a new high in recent months, with market sentiment rapidly shifting from "fear" to "greed."He pointed out that BTC is expected to stabilize above $78,000 in the short term and oscillate around that area, with key support levels in the $74,000--$76,000 range and primary resistance at $83,000. If it breaks through effectively, it may further challenge the $85,000--$90,000 levels.Regarding Ethereum, benefiting from the market's increased risk appetite driven by BTC, simultaneous ETF fund inflows, and a rebound in DeFi activity, Ryan noted that ETH's short-term average price could reach $2,600--$2,800. If it breaks through the $2,650--$2,700 resistance level, it may further push towards the $3,000 mark.At the same time, Ryan also reminded investors that although ETF fund inflows are strong and short-term momentum is sufficient, there are still profit-taking pressures in the market, as well as macro policy uncertainties such as the Jackson Hole meeting and the September interest rate meeting. Traders should be prepared for fluctuations of 10--20% and closely monitor daily ETF flow data and key support levels.

Data released by HODL15Capital shows that sell orders for Bitcoin around the price of $80,000 mainly come from the Binance trading platform. Among them, Binance has approximately $31.98 million in sell orders near $79,945, about $13.2 million in sell orders near $80,000, and around $33.27 million in sell orders near $82,500; Coinbase has about $38.74 million in sell orders near $80,000.HODL15Capital analysis indicates that some of these sell orders have been posted for a long time, for example, the sell orders near $80,000 on Binance have been around for about 99 days, and the sell orders near $82,500 have been around for about 108 days. Therefore, it is believed that the current sell wall may not be as strong as it appears, and it will be necessary to wait until BTC gets closer to $80,000 to confirm whether these orders are genuinely intended for sale or if they will continue to move the sell orders higher.

Cryptocurrency analyst Rekt Capital released a technical chart analysis of Bitcoin, indicating that Bitcoin is facing resistance from a macro downtrend line, which is fitted with the 21-month EMA moving average.Rekt Capital believes that if Bitcoin is blocked in this fitted resistance area, it may find support at the 50-month EMA moving average (purple). Overall, Bitcoin needs to convert these two macro EMAs back into new support levels and break through the macro downtrend line to confirm a new bull market.Rekt Capital is a senior cryptocurrency technical analyst with 560,000 followers on the X platform.