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ETH $2,370.33 +1.27%
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SOL $88.74 +3.69%
TRX $0.3240 -0.79%
DOGE $0.1000 +3.30%
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BCH $451.82 +2.74%
LINK $9.61 +2.96%
HYPE $44.12 -1.93%
AAVE $116.42 +8.78%
SUI $1.00 +3.03%
XLM $0.1707 +5.70%
ZEC $341.23 -0.75%

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Analysis: Bitcoin approaches $76,000 but market sentiment remains in "extreme fear"

Despite Bitcoin rising to $76,300 at one point this week, market sentiment remains low, with the Fear and Greed Index still in the "extreme fear" range at 21, indicating a clear divergence between price and sentiment. Institutional views suggest that this round of increases is more akin to "valuation repair" rather than a trend reversal. QCP Capital referred to it as a "relief rally," as macro-level inflation, energy, and policy pressures have not fully dissipated.Glassnode pointed out that Bitcoin is still about 5% lower than the key resistance level of the "real market average" at approximately $78,100, and the current rebound has limited depth. The funding structure is also showing divergence. Spot demand and ETF fund flows have warmed up, but profit-taking has increased, and institutional participation remains cautious, with the derivatives market continuing to lean towards downward hedging. Exchange data also shows that demand is more from offshore and retail funds rather than dominated by U.S. institutions. Analysts state that around $75,000 has become a key support/validation level. If subsequent buying cannot sustain, the price may retreat to the range of $70,000 to $71,000.On the macro front, U.S. stocks continue to hit new highs, and oil prices remain high but have not surged further, which has warmed market risk appetite but still carries uncertainty. The market's focus is shifting towards the Federal Reserve's policy path, and the overall environment still poses constraints on crypto assets. In summary, while Bitcoin maintains its rebound, it oscillates near resistance levels, and the market tone remains cautious, with no consistent bullish trend formed yet.

Li Hua Yi: Firmly believes that the war will end; if a financial crisis reoccurs, it will test BTC's safe-haven properties and also present a buying opportunity

Liquid Capital (formerly LD Capital) founder Yi Lihua stated that peace negotiations typically move from disagreement to consensus. The motivation for continued warfare among all parties is weakening under the current circumstances, and the conflict may gradually come to an end. "We still insist that the war will end; neither side has any reason to continue fighting. Waiting for a rebound without taking profits, the moment an agreement is reached will be a bullish signal."He pointed out that, from a medium to long-term perspective, the market is generally waiting for a potential large-scale financial crisis. There are signs of defensive positioning on the funding side, such as large capital holding a high proportion of cash and sovereign entities increasing their gold holdings. In this context, if a crisis occurs again, it will be a key moment to test whether Bitcoin possesses the attributes of a safe-haven asset, and it may also present significant opportunities for low-position allocations.In addition, Yi Lihua believes that AI technology is bringing a new round of opportunities for outstanding entrepreneurs. A small number of teams can create global products, reducing financing and organizational management costs. Especially experienced serial entrepreneurs should seize this "AI Age of Exploration."

Market sentiment has turned bullish, with traders setting a target price of $88,000 for Bitcoin

Amid a significant rebound in Bitcoin whale activity and a sharp decline in inflows to trading platforms, traders are setting Bitcoin's target price at $88,000. This week, after four days of consolidation between $70,000 and $72,000, Bitcoin reached an intraday high of $73,255 on Friday.The current price structure resembles the breakout trend of the second quarter of 2025—at that time, the price had long been consolidating below the moving averages, and once it broke the descending trend line, it quickly surged to the next supply zone. Currently, $76,000 constitutes a key trigger point, which also corresponds to the upper boundary of the descending trend line formed since Bitcoin's decline from around $126,000. Once broken, the psychological resistance that has suppressed rebounds for the past few months may be eliminated.On-chain data shows that crypto analyst Amr Taha pointed out that in the past 30 days, inflows of Bitcoin from whales to exchanges have dropped to $2.96 billion, marking the first time since June 2025 that it has fallen below $3 billion, while this figure was as high as $8 billion in February this year. Meanwhile, as of April 9, long-term holders have realized a market value change of $49 billion, indicating that accumulation behavior has restarted.Taha stated that these indicators collectively reflect that chips are shifting from weak hands to strong hands, showing a trend of steady accumulation rather than aggressive selling. The CoinGlass liquidity map shows that a large amount of visible liquidity is concentrated in the $86,000 to $90,000 range.
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