sentiment

Despite Bitcoin rising to $76,300 at one point this week, market sentiment remains low, with the Fear and Greed Index still in the "extreme fear" range at 21, indicating a clear divergence between price and sentiment. Institutional views suggest that this round of increases is more akin to "valuation repair" rather than a trend reversal. QCP Capital referred to it as a "relief rally," as macro-level inflation, energy, and policy pressures have not fully dissipated.Glassnode pointed out that Bitcoin is still about 5% lower than the key resistance level of the "real market average" at approximately $78,100, and the current rebound has limited depth. The funding structure is also showing divergence. Spot demand and ETF fund flows have warmed up, but profit-taking has increased, and institutional participation remains cautious, with the derivatives market continuing to lean towards downward hedging. Exchange data also shows that demand is more from offshore and retail funds rather than dominated by U.S. institutions. Analysts state that around $75,000 has become a key support/validation level. If subsequent buying cannot sustain, the price may retreat to the range of $70,000 to $71,000.On the macro front, U.S. stocks continue to hit new highs, and oil prices remain high but have not surged further, which has warmed market risk appetite but still carries uncertainty. The market's focus is shifting towards the Federal Reserve's policy path, and the overall environment still poses constraints on crypto assets. In summary, while Bitcoin maintains its rebound, it oscillates near resistance levels, and the market tone remains cautious, with no consistent bullish trend formed yet.

According to Coinglass data, the Coinbase Bitcoin premium index has been positive for 9 consecutive days, currently reported at 0.0117%. The buying sentiment in the U.S. market continues to warm up, after being in negative premium for 15 consecutive days.ChainCatcher Note: The Coinbase Bitcoin premium index is used to measure the difference between the Bitcoin price on Coinbase (a mainstream trading platform in the U.S.) and the global market average price. This index is an important indicator for observing capital flows in the U.S. market, institutional investment enthusiasm, and changes in market sentiment.A positive premium indicates that the Coinbase price is higher than the global average price, which usually means: strong buying in the U.S. market, active entry of institutional or compliant funds, ample dollar liquidity, and optimistic investment sentiment. A negative premium indicates that the Coinbase price is lower than the global average price, which typically reflects: significant selling pressure in the U.S. market, decreased risk appetite among investors, rising market risk aversion, or capital outflows.

According to Jinshi reports, the S&P 500 index has turned down, indicating a weakening market sentiment.

According to Coinglass data, the Coinbase Bitcoin premium index has been positive for 8 consecutive days, currently reported at 0.0401%. The buying sentiment in the U.S. market continues to warm up, after previously being in negative premium for 15 consecutive days.The Coinbase Bitcoin premium index is used to measure the difference between the Bitcoin price on Coinbase (a mainstream trading platform in the U.S.) and the global market average price. This index is an important indicator for observing the flow of funds in the U.S. market, the enthusiasm of institutional investors, and changes in market sentiment. A positive premium indicates that the Coinbase price is higher than the global average price, which usually means: strong buying in the U.S. market, active entry of institutional or compliant funds, ample dollar liquidity, and optimistic investment sentiment. A negative premium indicates that the Coinbase price is lower than the global average price, which typically reflects: significant selling pressure in the U.S. market, a decline in investors' risk appetite, an increase in market risk aversion, or capital outflow.

According to Cointelegraph, after a recent rebound, Ethereum's price has stabilized above $2,300, with ETH futures open interest increasing to $25.4 billion, indicating a rise in demand for leveraged positions.Meanwhile, Ethereum spot ETFs listed in the U.S. have seen a net inflow of $248 million over the past 10 days, and Bitmine Immersion has also disclosed the purchase of $312 million worth of ETH. However, the funding rate for ETH perpetual contracts has failed to remain above 5% and has repeatedly fallen below 0, reflecting limited market confidence in this round of increases. Additionally, Ethereum's weekly DApp revenue has dropped from $24 million in early February to $11 million, and weakened network activity along with intensified competition among public chains may continue to affect ETH's trend.

glassnode published its weekly market outlook, indicating that Bitcoin's price momentum has increased by 51.7%, breaking through previous highs, reflecting a significant enhancement in spot buying power and a strengthening of market buying support.On the other hand, Bitcoin's futures open interest continues to rise, and the options Delta skew shows a moderation of bearish sentiment. Combined with a cooling of on-chain activity, this suggests that the market is currently in a consolidation phase but with improved sentiment. glassnode stated that from a profitability perspective, market pressure has eased. Overall, various indicators collectively suggest that the market is exhibiting strong bullish sentiment, increased investor participation, and enhanced risk appetite, although there are also signs of cautious sentiment and market stabilization.

According to DL News, STS Digital's CEO Maxime Seiler stated that Bitcoin traders are increasingly positioning themselves for a price decline.In a report, he noted that the demand for put options is significantly higher than that for call options, with investors paying a premium for downside protection while selling off bullish bets, reflecting a sense of panic in the market. This bearish signal comes as Bitcoin's trading price hovers slightly above $70,000.Previously, Bitcoin fell nearly 4% over the weekend due to President Trump's threat to block the Strait of Hormuz. On Monday, the U.S. Central Command announced that the Navy would intercept all vessels entering or leaving Iranian ports starting at 10 AM Eastern Time, causing oil prices to rebound above $100 per barrel.High oil prices mean rising inflationary pressures, which will be a major focus for global central bank governors at their meeting in late April. The prices of risk assets like Bitcoin are highly dependent on the policies of these institutions, as they determine the money supply in the financial system. The unresolved Middle East conflict will remain a focal point for the market this week.

According to Jinshi reports, due to Trump's order to impose a blockade on the Strait of Hormuz, crude oil prices have surged, U.S. stock index futures have fallen, and the dollar has strengthened. This escalation of the situation occurred after the U.S. and Iran failed to reach an agreement in negotiations in Pakistan, which may leave investors feeling disappointed. Elias Haddad, the global market strategy director at Brown Brothers Harriman, stated that this move is bound to rekindle risk aversion this week. Investors are focused on the upcoming first-quarter earnings season, anticipating insights from corporate leadership on the increasing risks.

Amid a significant rebound in Bitcoin whale activity and a sharp decline in inflows to trading platforms, traders are setting Bitcoin's target price at $88,000. This week, after four days of consolidation between $70,000 and $72,000, Bitcoin reached an intraday high of $73,255 on Friday.The current price structure resembles the breakout trend of the second quarter of 2025—at that time, the price had long been consolidating below the moving averages, and once it broke the descending trend line, it quickly surged to the next supply zone. Currently, $76,000 constitutes a key trigger point, which also corresponds to the upper boundary of the descending trend line formed since Bitcoin's decline from around $126,000. Once broken, the psychological resistance that has suppressed rebounds for the past few months may be eliminated.On-chain data shows that crypto analyst Amr Taha pointed out that in the past 30 days, inflows of Bitcoin from whales to exchanges have dropped to $2.96 billion, marking the first time since June 2025 that it has fallen below $3 billion, while this figure was as high as $8 billion in February this year. Meanwhile, as of April 9, long-term holders have realized a market value change of $49 billion, indicating that accumulation behavior has restarted.Taha stated that these indicators collectively reflect that chips are shifting from weak hands to strong hands, showing a trend of steady accumulation rather than aggressive selling. The CoinGlass liquidity map shows that a large amount of visible liquidity is concentrated in the $86,000 to $90,000 range.

According to Coinglass data, the Coinbase Bitcoin premium index has been positive for 2 consecutive days, currently reported at 0.014%. The buying sentiment in the U.S. market is beginning to warm up, after being in negative premium for 15 consecutive days.The Coinbase Bitcoin premium index is used to measure the difference between the Bitcoin price on Coinbase (a mainstream trading platform in the U.S.) and the global market average price. This index is an important indicator for observing capital flows in the U.S. market, institutional investment enthusiasm, and changes in market sentiment.A positive premium indicates that the Coinbase price is higher than the global average price, which usually means: strong buying in the U.S. market, active entry of institutional or compliant funds, ample dollar liquidity, and optimistic investment sentiment. A negative premium indicates that the Coinbase price is lower than the global average price, which typically reflects: significant selling pressure in the U.S. market, decreased risk appetite among investors, increased market risk aversion, or capital outflows.

Driven by expectations of easing tensions in the Middle East, the price of Bitcoin has risen sharply. Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu has reportedly instructed to initiate negotiations with Lebanon, following Trump's request for Israel to reduce military actions to maintain the ceasefire process. After the news was released, Bitcoin quickly surged by about 3%, currently reported at approximately $72,300, with a 24-hour increase of about 2%, significantly outperforming mainstream crypto assets; Ethereum, Solana, and XRP all saw increases of less than 1%. Meanwhile, U.S. stocks also stopped their decline and rebounded, while oil prices fell back from their intraday highs.It is noteworthy that there has been a clear divergence in the movements of Bitcoin and tech stocks, with their 20-day rolling correlation coefficient dropping to about 0.34, indicating that Bitcoin is gradually decoupling from tech stocks and is more driven by macro geopolitical factors and risk aversion sentiment.

The latest U.S. PCE inflation data largely met expectations, easing market uncertainty, and Bitcoin's price stabilized after previously reaching around $73,000. Data shows that the core PCE year-on-year is 3%, and month-on-month is 0.4%. The market is also influenced by the easing situation between the U.S. and Iran, but analysts point out that the current PCE data has not yet reflected potential energy price shocks.Although the inflation data did not trigger significant market fluctuations, investors remain cautious about the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut expectations for this year. Economist Mohamed El-Erian stated that compared to PCE, the upcoming CPI data to be released this week will have a more critical impact on the market, especially against the backdrop of oil price fluctuations. On the trading front, the market remains in a volatile range, with liquidity mainly concentrated in the $69,000 to $76,000 range. Trader Michaël van de Poppe believes that as long as the key support range holds, Bitcoin is expected to start a new round of upward momentum, targeting $80,000.

Due to Trump's announcement of a two-week temporary ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran, market risk sentiment quickly rebounded, and the three major U.S. stock indices saw a significant rebound. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose more than 1300 points in a single day, marking its best performance in nearly a year; WTI crude oil futures, on the other hand, plummeted over 16%.Tom Lee, head of research at Fundstrat, stated that the current market has confirmed a phase bottom and is moving back toward historical highs. He pointed out that despite the previous surge in oil prices and escalation of conflicts, the stock market did not show a significant decline, indicating strong market resilience, while the ceasefire has become a catalyst for sentiment reversal.He expects that the S&P 500 index may rise to 7300 points within the year, which still has about 7.6% upside potential from the current level, and is optimistic about the subsequent performance of technology stocks, software, energy, and financial sectors. Among them, the "seven tech giants" are seen as the core driving force behind this round of rebound.Several institutional investors also believe that as geopolitical risks ease and oil prices fall, the market has entered a "relief rebound" phase, combined with the approaching earnings season, making the current time a potential window for buying on dips.

According to CoinDesk, with the expectation of a potential ceasefire agreement between the U.S. and Iran boosting market risk appetite, it is reported that the ceasefire plan may take effect on Monday and lead to the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Bitcoin's rise has driven the overall cryptocurrency market stronger, with mainstream assets like Ethereum and Solana also rising in tandem.The derivatives market is also showing bullish signals, with improvements in Bitcoin futures structure and a continued decline in 30-day implied volatility, while Nasdaq 100 futures rose by 0.8%, reinforcing the risk-on atmosphere. However, analysts point out that there is still uncertainty in the market rebound.Recent ceasefire news has been denied or debunked by Iran multiple times, and if a similar situation occurs again, the market may quickly reverse. Furthermore, even if an agreement is reached, there are still doubts about its binding nature on Israel, which may limit the sustainability of risk appetite. Overall, while Bitcoin has upward potential, macro variables remain key constraints.

According to Coinglass data, the cryptocurrency market has rebounded, with Bitcoin currently priced at $68,171, a 24-hour increase of 2.34%; Ethereum is currently priced at $2,079.76, a 24-hour increase of 3.53%. Current funding rates on mainstream CEX and DEX platforms show that bearish sentiment for ETH has eased compared to before, while BTC is relatively lagging behind, with multiple platforms still showing negative funding rates for BTC, indicating a clear divergence between the two.Specifically, the funding rate for ETH has returned to the +0.01% benchmark level on several platforms, significantly narrowing the overall bearish signals compared to earlier. For BTC, several platforms, including Binance, still have rates in the negative range, with shorts continuously paying fees to longs to maintain their positions; although some platforms have turned positive, they remain below the 0.005% threshold and have not yet returned to neutral. The specific funding rates for mainstream cryptocurrencies are shown in the attached image.Note: Funding rates are the rates set by cryptocurrency trading platforms to maintain the balance between contract prices and the prices of the underlying assets, typically applicable to perpetual contracts. It is a mechanism for the exchange of funds between long and short traders, and the trading platform does not charge this fee; it is used to adjust the cost or profit of the contracts held by traders to keep the contract prices close to the prices of the underlying assets. When the funding rate is 0.01%, it indicates the benchmark rate. When the funding rate is greater than 0.01%, it represents a generally bullish market. When the funding rate is less than 0.005%, it represents a generally bearish market.

Santiment posted on the X platform that Bitcoin's price has fallen to a low of $65,600 for the first time since March 1, and retail traders' sentiment has dropped to "extreme fear."Historically, collective panic sentiment is often a necessary factor for a rebound, as market trends usually go against the expectations of the masses.Given that uncertainty regarding the war remains high and optimism about price declines is still low, a price rebound may occur.

According to the latest cryptocurrency weekly report released by Gate Ventures, the market overall faced pressure and retracement in the past week, with BTC and ETH dropping by 6.8% and 5.8% respectively, and the Fear and Greed Index falling to 8, entering the "extreme fear" zone.Despite the weak price performance, the funding situation remains resilient, with BTC and ETH spot ETFs recording net inflows of approximately $767 million and $161 million respectively, indicating that institutional funds are still actively positioning. Overall, the total market capitalization of the cryptocurrency market has declined by about 5.5%, with the market in a phase of emotional recovery and structural differentiation.On the macro level, the Fed maintained interest rates, and the situation in the Middle East has driven up energy prices, increasing market concerns about stagflation risks. Meanwhile, the integration of traditional finance and the cryptocurrency market continues to deepen, with Morgan Stanley and Grayscale respectively advancing Bitcoin and Hyperliquid ETF-related layouts. Exchanges are also relaxing restrictions on related derivatives trading, further broadening institutional participation pathways. In addition, the trend of institutionalization in the prediction market sector is accelerating, with Kalshi completing over $1 billion in financing, reaching a valuation of $22 billion.In terms of investment and financing, a total of 11 transactions were completed last week, with a disclosed total financing amount of $1.18 billion, of which the infrastructure sector accounted for 64%, being the main flow of funds. Overall, against the backdrop of increased market volatility, funds continue to flow into core infrastructure and emerging narrative sectors, maintaining robust momentum for long-term industry development.

According to Jinshi reports, the Indian Sensex index continues to decline, recently falling by 2.4%, as market risk sentiment continues to deteriorate.

Crypto analyst Murphy posted on the X platform reviewing the market dynamics of the past week. Monitoring shows unusual capital flows for Bitcoin: when BTC rebounded to $70,000-$71,000, a group of whale addresses (each holding over 1,000 BTC) sold 24,867 BTC and 17,818 BTC respectively. The average loss on the sold chips compared to their cost reached 50%, while the loss on the sold chips was less than 10%. Analysis shows that these chips originated from low purchases in May-July 2025 and early April, with part of them being sold off after significant losses, and another part being rotated out after precise bottom fishing.Strategy bought 22,337 BTC again on March 17, absorbing most of the excess supply. Nevertheless, this event reflects that market sentiment remains extremely fragile, and investors holding BTC for nearly a year are gradually losing patience. Future price rebounds may still trigger pressure from loss-making chips.