ultimate

According to CCTV News, on April 8 local time, U.S. Vice President Pence stated during an event in Hungary that the ceasefire reached between the U.S. and Iran is a "fragile truce." He did not disclose more details, only stating that the agreement includes a ceasefire, advancing negotiations, and reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Pence mentioned that President Trump has asked the U.S. representative responsible for negotiations with Iran to engage in discussions "in good faith," but also stated that Trump is "eager to see progress."He also stated that the U.S. is prepared to use "extraordinary economic leverage," but Trump has instructed the U.S. side to "not use these means for the time being." Pence said that if Iran negotiates "in good faith," there is a possibility for the U.S. to reach an agreement, but "how the negotiations ultimately proceed depends on Iran."

Binance founder Zhao Changpeng (CZ) recalled in his new book that after the "9·4" regulatory policy was introduced in 2017, venture capital firms as a whole became more cautious, and Sequoia Capital, which had originally expressed investment intentions, also paused related cooperation. He stated, "Seeing the venture capitalists collectively silent during our most difficult September, I was actually quite disappointed."CZ revealed that prior to this, Sequoia had expressed investment interest at the beginning of He Yi's joining, but chose to wait and see in light of the policy impact. Subsequently, Binance achieved rapid growth from September to October, with the number of users increasing from about 20,000 in August to about 120,000 by late October, ranking among the top ten exchanges globally and becoming profitable.CZ stated that by the end of October, after the risk phase had basically passed, Sequoia re-expressed its investment intentions, but they had proposed to raise the valuation requirement. Ultimately, the two sides could not reach an agreement due to valuation differences. The other party then proposed to pursue legal proceedings, and a week later, four large boxes of legal documents were delivered. CZ said this was the "first time in his life becoming a defendant." CZ mentioned that he later learned that the lawsuit was led by Sequoia's legal team in the U.S., who are skilled at using the media to create public opinion, "the media reporters knew before I, the party involved."

In response to the tweet "Helius CEO announces the next round of the crypto cycle is coming," Solana co-founder Toly replied that cheaper, faster, and lower-risk financial methods will ultimately prevail over all alternatives. Immutable, formally verified software. The admin key contains on-chain immutable policies, such as time locks. All truly interesting things in the financial sector, like criminals, involve extremely broad aspects. Therefore, anything complex cannot be separated from admin privileges.

Chaitanya Jain, the head of Strategy at Bitcoin Treasury Company, stated on the X platform that Strategy purchased approximately 8,000 bitcoins for about $300 million throughout 2022, while in the first two months of 2026, the company has already invested about $4.3 billion to acquire approximately 48,000 bitcoins. This continuous and large-scale institutional buying pattern may permanently change the market structure of the Bitcoin bear market. In this context, Strategy's perpetual preferred stock STRC and MSTR will together form the "ultimate Bitcoin accumulation machine."

According to Jinshi reports, Federal Reserve's Williams stated that the ultimate goal of interest rate cuts is to prevent the policy from becoming too tight.

Gate CBO Kevin Lee recently published an article titled "War, War Never Changes... How Will the Macro Market Move?" regarding the recent situation in the Middle East. He pointed out that geopolitical conflicts themselves do not alter the fundamental operating logic of the market; what truly determines the medium-term direction of assets is the impact of the prolonged conflict on the inflation path and changes in central bank policy orientation.Kevin stated that within hours to days after the outbreak of conflict, crude oil typically experiences significant volatility first, as the market prices in the tail risk of supply disruptions; gold then activates, serving both as a safe haven and an inflation hedge; the stock market faces short-term pressure, with VIX rising rapidly and significant sector divergence.As the situation progresses from several days to two weeks, if energy supply is not continuously damaged, oil prices and risk premiums often retrace, and stocks and crypto assets rebound with the recovery of risk sentiment; however, if high oil prices persist for an extended period, inflation expectations will be systematically elevated, shifting the asset pricing logic from a trading perspective to a macro perspective.The article further emphasizes that what truly changes the trend is not the market reaction on the day of the conflict but the inflation data and policy expectations that gradually emerge weeks later. Over a longer cycle, the market will reprice around the evolution path of inflation, the credibility of monetary policy, and the economic growth outlook. Historical experience repeatedly proves that in high-uncertainty environments, emotional decision-making often comes at a high cost; understanding the transmission sequence and respecting cyclical patterns are key to navigating volatility.

According to Jinshi reports, economists at Capital Economics analyze that as the Iranian conflict evolves, global financial markets may be impacted by fluctuations in investor risk appetite.If the conflict escalates, government bonds may not provide a reliable safe haven, and expectations for monetary easing may be delayed. The dollar may continue to strengthen, mainly benefiting from the termination of interest rate cuts making relative yields favorable for the dollar, as well as the United States' position as a net energy exporter.

On-chain analysis company CryptoQuant indicates that the "ultimate" bottom of the Bitcoin bear market is currently around $55,000, and the formation of a bear market bottom typically takes several months rather than being completed by a single capitulation event. CryptoQuant states that the realized price of Bitcoin has historically been a major support area during bear markets and is likely to represent the final bear market bottom. Currently, the trading price of Bitcoin is still over 25% higher than this level.The company notes that in past bear markets, prices fell below the realized price by 24% after the FTX collapse, and in the 2018 cycle, it dropped by 30%. After reaching these levels, Bitcoin usually requires four to six months to build a bottom. CryptoQuant believes another sign that Bitcoin has not yet reached a structural bottom is the significant single-day realized losses. Data shows that when the Bitcoin price dropped 14% to $62,000, holders recorded an average realized loss of $5.4 billion in a single day, the highest daily loss since March 2023, surpassing the $4.3 billion recorded a few days after the FTX collapse in November 2022.Despite the massive scale of losses, CryptoQuant states that the price bottom has not yet arrived. The monthly cumulative realized losses measured in Bitcoin are still far below the levels corresponding to bear market bottoms, currently at 300,000 BTC, compared to 1.1 million BTC at the end of the bear market in 2022, the report notes. Several key valuation metrics also remain above historical panic sell-off regions. CryptoQuant claims that the MVRV ratio (the ratio of Bitcoin's market value to its realized value) has not yet entered the extremely undervalued range that historically marks bear market bottoms. Similarly, the NUPL metric has not reached the unrealized loss level of about 20% seen in past cycle lows.The behavior of long-term holders has also not reflected complete panic selling. CryptoQuant points out that long-term holders are currently selling at prices close to breakeven, whereas during past bear market bottoms, they endured losses of 30%-40%. Additionally, about 55% of the Bitcoin supply is still in profit, while cycle lows typically fall within the range of 45%-50%. CryptoQuant further states that its bull-bear cycle indicator is currently still in the "bear market phase," rather than the "extreme bear market phase"—the latter historically marks the point at which prices begin to enter a bottoming phase. The company notes that this extreme phase typically lasts for several months, indicating that the formation of a bear market bottom requires time.

According to The Block, on-chain data analysis company CryptoQuant stated that the "ultimate" bear market bottom for Bitcoin is currently around $55,000. However, bear market bottoms typically take months to form, rather than being completed by a single capitulation event.Analysis shows that the realized price of Bitcoin has historically been a major support area during bear markets, and the current price is still more than 25% above that level. Despite Bitcoin dropping to $62,000, resulting in a single-day realized loss of $5.4 billion, a new high since March 2023, a structural bottom has not yet approached. The monthly cumulative realized loss (in BTC) remains far below the bear market bottom level: currently at 300,000 BTC, compared to 1.1 million BTC at the end of the 2022 bear market.Several key valuation indicators have also not entered the historical capitulation zone: the MVRV ratio has not reached the extremely undervalued range; the NUPL indicator has not reached the historical cycle low of about 20% unrealized loss; long-term holders are currently selling at approximately breakeven, while during historical bear market bottoms, they typically endure losses of 30%-40%; about 55% of Bitcoin supply is still in profit, while cycle lows are usually around 45%-50%. CryptoQuant's bull-bear cycle indicator is currently still in the "bear market phase" rather than the "extreme bear market phase," which historically lasts for several months and marks the beginning of the price entering a bottoming phase.

Deribit Chief Commercial Officer Jean-David Péquignot stated at the Consensus HK conference that the long-term upward trend of Bitcoin has currently been disrupted, and it is difficult to repair the technical upward structure before the price reclaims $85,000.Recently, Bitcoin's price has mainly been operating in the range of $60,000 to $70,000, a decline of about 45% from last year's historical high, and it may record a fourth consecutive week of decline. If Bitcoin breaks through $85,000 again, it would mean that buyers have basically absorbed the supply that previously suppressed the market and regained market dominance. At this stage, traders generally view the range of $58,000 to $60,000 as the key ultimate support area for this adjustment cycle.

According to on-chain analyst @ai_9684xtpa, a certain whale purchased 2,072.9 ETH for $1,925.47 each on the morning of February 10, spending $4 million. After holding for five days, they decided to sell at $2,009.56 five hours ago, ultimately making a profit of $174,000.

Recent market sentiment has been sluggish, and Bybit has launched a new copy trading competition to encourage trading enthusiasts. Both TradFi and cryptocurrency trading experts can participate in two rounds of competition for a prize pool of 300,000 USDT.The first round of the competition will take place from February 9 to February 24, and the second round will be held from February 27 to March 14, each with a prize pool of 150,000 USDT.Competition Rules:Copy traders must choose to register for either the classic version or TradFi trading type. Rankings are based on the trading volume and total profit and loss of the trading expert and their copy trading users' team. Participants must meet the minimum trading volume requirement, which is 75,000 USDT for the classic version and 1,500,000 USDx for TradFi.Rewards:The champion will receive 39,000 USDT, the runner-up will get 19,000 USDT, and the third place will earn 12,000 USDT. The 4th to 50th places will share a prize pool of 70,000 USDT.Additionally, this competition features a "like" reward mechanism, where the first 1,000 users supporting the top 3 trading experts can share 2,000 USDT, and those who maintain their copy trading status can enjoy a 500% bonus increase.

According to Coinbob's popular address monitoring, the 'Ultimate Short' address (0x5d2f...) has made multiple reductions to its BTC short position within about 1 hour, cumulatively reducing approximately 31.57 BTC short positions, with a total value of about 2.2456 million USD. After continuous operations during this period, the total value of its BTC short position has decreased from 7.0248 million USD to 4.8323 million USD.The current floating profit of this position is approximately 2.7868 million USD, and the liquidation price has been raised to 175,229.03 USD accordingly. This address is known for establishing BTC short positions around the 120,000 USD price level, consistently shorting various mainstream and altcoins, with its account's floating profit having reached a maximum of 64 million USD. It remains one of the largest BTC short addresses on Hyperliquid.