BTC $84,877.64 +0.55%
ETH $2,687.59 +0.77%
BNB $788.70 +2.92%
XRP $1.49 +1.00%
SOL $119.95 +1.51%
TRX $0.3357 +0.34%
DOGE $0.0932 +1.61%
ADA $0.2456 +2.23%
BCH $315.68 +3.32%
LINK $14.03 +2.79%
HYPE $89.31 +2.83%
AAVE $179.89 -0.83%
SUI $1.17 +4.77%
XLM $0.2158 +1.94%
ZEC $1,327.84 +2.86%
AAPL $333.15 -0.14%
AMZN $251.81 +0.26%
GOOGL $343.37 +0.01%
MSFT $518.32 +0.15%
META $729.82 +0.35%
NVDA $234.87 +0.32%
TSLA $370.84 +0.12%
SNDK $1,716.33 -0.15%
INTC $117.98 -1.16%
SPCX $159.07 +0.19%
MU $1,070.73 -0.31%
AMD $634.27 +0.13%
BTC $84,877.64 +0.55%
ETH $2,687.59 +0.77%
BNB $788.70 +2.92%
XRP $1.49 +1.00%
SOL $119.95 +1.51%
TRX $0.3357 +0.34%
DOGE $0.0932 +1.61%
ADA $0.2456 +2.23%
BCH $315.68 +3.32%
LINK $14.03 +2.79%
HYPE $89.31 +2.83%
AAVE $179.89 -0.83%
SUI $1.17 +4.77%
XLM $0.2158 +1.94%
ZEC $1,327.84 +2.86%
AAPL $333.15 -0.14%
AMZN $251.81 +0.26%
GOOGL $343.37 +0.01%
MSFT $518.32 +0.15%
META $729.82 +0.35%
NVDA $234.87 +0.32%
TSLA $370.84 +0.12%
SNDK $1,716.33 -0.15%
INTC $117.98 -1.16%
SPCX $159.07 +0.19%
MU $1,070.73 -0.31%
AMD $634.27 +0.13%

ultimate

All
Article
Flash

Arthur Hayes: AI "Safety First" is essentially a destruction of computing power demand; the U.S. government's ultimate choice in all scenarios is to print money, which ultimately benefits Bitcoin

Arthur Hayes published a new long article titled "Safety First," with the core argument that the claims of "safety first" by Anthropic, OpenAI, and SpaceX, which lead to a slowdown in AGI development, are not out of concern for human welfare but rather due to economic realities. The market does not want AI; it wants AI at "Chinese prices," meaning it needs intelligence that is 100 times cheaper than what is currently available. Hayes points out that "safety first" essentially destroys the demand for computing power. If the spending on training new models decreases and laboratories shift towards efficiency optimization, customers will spend less on computing power. The three major AI laboratories do not generate any profits, and their demand for computing power supports over $10 trillion in investment-grade debt and hundreds of billions in low-quality debt, which rely on profitable tech companies like Nvidia, Broadcom, Google, and Microsoft for off-balance-sheet endorsements. The real backstop is the holders of insurance policies in the United States.Hayes cites an analysis by Nick Nameth that reveals a "self-insurance scam": private equity giants (such as Apollo, KKR, Brookfield, etc.) acquire insurance companies, stuffing AI data center debt and SaaS private credit impacted by AI into insurance assets, and then provide false endorsements with minimal capital through affiliated self-insurance reinsurance companies. Nameth estimates that the total amount of these false reinsurance assets reaches $1.54 trillion. Once the AI data center debt is downgraded by rating agencies due to insufficient demand for computing power, insurance companies will be forced to add capital, while the affiliated reinsurance companies will be unable to pay, leading to insolvency for the insurance companies. In most states in the U.S., the insurance protection limit is only $250,000 to $300,000, and existing insurance companies only pay into the protection fund afterward, which encourages all parties involved to maximize risk-taking. When AIG was bailed out in 2008, TARP funds ultimately flowed to Goldman Sachs and led to record bonuses, while the general public only received foreclosure notices; Hayes believes this scenario will repeat itself.For cryptocurrency investors, the conclusion is a win-win situation. If the U.S. government chooses to become the "last buyer of computing power," it will print money in the name of national security to fund unproductive economic goods, driving up financial speculation and Bitcoin prices; if the government chooses to bail out insolvent insurance companies, it will also need to print money to cover bad AI debts, increasing the money supply and pushing up Bitcoin. Hayes specifically points out that the Federal Reserve voted unanimously last week to raise interest rates by 25 basis points, and RMP bond purchases have stopped since August 14, but commercial banks have taken over to create over $100 billion in currency, and the interest rate hike allows banks to earn an additional $7.5 billion in excess reserve interest each year. This money will be used to expand loans and market speculation, and the net effect remains stimulative. The fluctuations in the cryptocurrency market, which saw a slight increase at the end of August, are about to end, the supply of dollars will continue to grow, and Bitcoin and some selected altcoins will rise. Hayes also described this situation as "incredibly wonderful," stating that the government will not allow the free market to stop building AI data centers, there will be an oversupply of spot computing power, the usage of AI agents will increase, and the surge in money printing will drive investors to chase cryptocurrency assets.

CoinEx founder Yang Haipo: Once considered selling, ultimately decided to shut down

Yang Haipo, the founder of CoinEx, stated that CoinEx officially launched on December 22, 2017, and will officially close on December 22, 2026, nine years later. He mentioned that nine years is a long time in the cryptocurrency industry, and CoinEx has gone through multiple bull and bear cycles with its users, witnessing the rise and fall of numerous projects, as well as seeing many peers leave the market in different ways.Yang Haipo expressed that after reflection, he accepted the fact that CoinEx has not become a leading exchange in the industry, and the security and compliance risks of operating a cryptocurrency exchange have become increasingly difficult to control; revenue may decline, but responsibility does not lessen, and bearing unlimited risks with limited revenue is no longer a rational choice. He stated that CoinEx has survived for nine years in a highly volatile and harsh industry, and after experiencing various storms, it can still leave completely and with dignity.Regarding CET, CoinEx will repurchase it at its initial listing price of 0.005 USDT per coin, with no quantity limit set. Yang Haipo mentioned that he seriously considered selling CoinEx but ultimately decided against it because users entrusted their assets to CoinEx based on their trust in the platform and him personally. He believes that handing over the platform and this trust to a new owner is not the right way to end this journey, stating, "A clean end is the right end." CoinEx will ensure that users can fully withdraw their assets, provide employees with a dignified farewell, and offer a clear and responsible handling plan for CET holders.

Coinbase once offered $2.5 billion to acquire BVNK, ultimately losing to Mastercard's $1.8 billion acquisition

The insider information about the acquisition of stablecoin infrastructure company BVNK by Mastercard for $1.8 billion has recently been revealed. BVNK's early investment firm Concentric disclosed that during the acquisition bidding process, the U.S. cryptocurrency exchange Coinbase once held an advantage and reportedly made a top bid of $2.5 billion, but ultimately withdrew from the competition due to insufficient strategic and cultural fit between the two parties.Kjartan Rist, founding partner of Concentric, stated that the founding team of BVNK did not only focus on the bid amount when choosing an acquirer, but placed more importance on long-term partnerships and cultural alignment. "Although Coinbase may have offered a higher price, the chemistry between the two parties was not ideal." In contrast, Mastercard, as a traditional financial services company, found it easier to form synergies with BVNK in the areas of payment infrastructure and stablecoin applications.It is reported that Mastercard was involved in the acquisition discussions for BVNK early on, and after Coinbase failed to advance the deal, Mastercard re-emerged as the primary buyer, ultimately completing the acquisition for $1.8 billion.Visa also participated in the competition. Having previously invested in BVNK and holding a board observer seat, Visa once had an advantage. However, Visa ultimately chose not to pursue a direct acquisition, opting instead for an open strategy of collaborating with multiple stablecoin companies.BVNK was founded in 2018 and primarily provides stablecoin payment, cross-border settlement, and fund management infrastructure for enterprises. Its early investor Concentric invested in the company at a valuation of $4 million in 2019, and this transaction has resulted in significant returns.
app_icon
ChainCatcher Building the Web3 world with innovations.