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BCH $441.08 -0.71%
LINK $8.75 -5.42%
HYPE $38.35 -0.28%
AAVE $90.73 -4.51%
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zone

K33: Bitcoin enters the "late bear market zone," market signals are similar to the bottom in late 2022

According to market news, research and brokerage firm K33 stated that the current Bitcoin market structure, derivative positions, and ETF fund flows are highly similar to the late stages of the 2022 bear market, indicating a potential long-term consolidation rather than a rapid rebound.K33's research director Vetle Lunde noted that their proprietary indicators show a "striking similarity" between the current situation and September and November 2022 (close to the bear market bottom). However, historical experience suggests that market bottoms are often accompanied by prolonged consolidation, with an average 90-day return of only about 3% in similar environments. Data shows that Bitcoin has dropped nearly 28% since January, with the funding rate being negative for 11 consecutive days, and open interest falling below 260,000 BTC, as long positions are being liquidated.Spot trading volume decreased by 59% week-over-week, and futures open interest has fallen to a four-month low. On the institutional side, CME traders are relatively inactive, with Bitcoin ETP holdings decreasing by 103,113 BTC from last October's peak, but 93% of peak exposure remains, indicating that institutions are primarily reducing exposure rather than completely exiting.The Fear and Greed Index recently hit a historical low of 5, but Lunde pointed out that the average 90-day return from buying during extreme fear periods is only 2.4%, far lower than the 95% during extreme greed periods, suggesting that fear does not reliably predict a strong rebound. He expects Bitcoin to consolidate in the range of $60,000 to $75,000 for an extended period, noting that the current entry point is attractive but requires patience.

Analysis: $70,000 - $80,000 is a weak zone for BTC prices, and the consolidation event may be prolonged

According to CoinDesk, based on limited historical trading activity and on-chain supply, the BTC price may further consolidate or retest lower ranges. Since the drop over the weekend, the price of Bitcoin has been confined between $70,000 and $79,999 for five consecutive days. Bitcoin has spent a total of about 35 days within this $10,000 price range, making it one of the shortest durations, indicating that the price tends to move quickly through this area rather than establishing sustained support or resistance.The price is more likely to consolidate within this range or move down again before establishing a more solid foundation. In April of last year, Bitcoin rebounded after spending only a few weeks below $80,000. Similarly, when it reached a high near $73,000 in March 2024, it spent a short time at that level before starting to decline. A notable example occurred in November 2024, when the price surged from about $68,000 to $100,000 within weeks, with almost no consolidation in the $70,000 to $80,000 range.MicroStrategy (MSTR), the largest corporate holder of Bitcoin, made only one purchase within this price range. On November 11, 2024, the company acquired 27,200 BTC for approximately $2 billion, at an average price of $74,463. Data shows that there is a supply gap between $70,000 and $80,000, indicating that this area remains structurally weak.
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