icc

Сообщение ChainCatcher, согласно отчету Jinshi, исследование Zhongjin указывает на то, что с середины июня глобальная цепочка ИИ демонстрирует явную коррекцию, особенно на корейском рынке, что связано с высоким кредитным плечом, высокой плотностью и макроэкономическими факторами. Озабоченность по поводу пузыря ИИ усиливается, что похоже на ситуацию перед крахом пузыря технологических акций в 2000 году.Zhongjin считает, что стабилизация рынка и новый раунд роста будут зависеть от переработки высокой плотности и высокого кредитного плеча, смягчения ожиданий повышения процентных ставок Федеральной резервной системой, а также новых катализаторов в отчетах и промышленности.

Сообщение ChainCatcher, согласно отчету Jinshi, считает, что текущая инфляция в США по-прежнему обусловлена структурными факторами, такими как энергетические шоки, циклическая инфляция пока не очевидна, но необходимо быть осторожными с рисками восстановления совокупного спроса, вызванными расширением капитальных затрат на ИИ и улучшением занятости. Мы сохраняем базовую оценку, что Федеральная резервная система в этом году не будет снижать и не будет повышать процентные ставки, ожидаем, что позиция ФРС останется ястребиной, а первоочередной задачей Уоша после вступления в должность будет восстановление доверия к политике.

According to Jinshi reports, CICC's research report believes that the conflict between the U.S. and Iran has led to a surge in oil prices, with the risk of "inflation" taking precedence. The market expects changes in the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut path, bringing selling pressure to gold ETFs that were heavily increased last year, while liquidity shocks are also contributing to short-term corrections through the futures and options markets.Currently, the geopolitical situation in the Middle East may be entering a critical window period, with oil prices facing a choice between rising and falling. The pricing focus in the gold market may shift to assessing the impact of supply shocks on "stagflation," and the already priced-in expectations for interest rate hikes may need to be revised.Looking ahead, CICC believes that whether it is a pullback in oil prices after a geopolitical downgrade, a return to a loose monetary policy direction, or intensified supply shocks increasing recession pressures and triggering the safe-haven value of gold, there may be upward correction space for both gold investment demand and prices.

According to Jinshi reports, the CICC research report pointed out that the Federal Reserve maintained interest rates at the March meeting, which aligns with market expectations. The dot plot and economic forecasts indicate an upward revision of inflation expectations, narrowing the space for interest rate cuts, and the overall policy orientation is cautious.Although Powell believes the economy remains resilient, CICC believes that the U.S. economy is entering a "stagflation-like" phase, and the Federal Reserve may continue to hold steady in the short term, with interest rate cuts postponed until the second half of the year.

During the weekend following the release of the "Notice on Further Preventing and Dealing with Risks Related to Virtual Assets" (Document No. 42), the relevant team from CICC Hong Kong has engaged with several public chains and exchanges to explore potential business cooperation.Additionally, a public chain leader expressed a desire to explore relevant cooperation opportunities with investment banks and other intermediary institutions. Institutions such as Ant Group and JD.com have also shown concern regarding policy changes. Reports indicate that Hong Kong is one of the overseas issuance locations for RWA. Regulatory insiders familiar with the situation stated that RWAs based on assets from Hong Kong are not within the regulatory scope of Document No. 42; if domestic securities or funds are involved as underlying assets and RWA issuance occurs overseas, it will be overseen by the relevant departments of the China Securities Regulatory Commission. The related statements emphasize that strict regulation will be implemented for RWAs involving domestic assets going abroad and should not be interpreted as a signal to encourage or relax regulatory measures.

According to Jin Shi's report, the research report from China International Capital Corporation points out that it is difficult to shake the normalization of balance sheet expansion regardless of who is chosen as the Federal Reserve Chairman. Although the Federal Reserve began expanding its balance sheet last December, and there has been a marginal improvement in liquidity, narrow liquidity remains well below the lower limit of the "ample level," and the dollar liquidity indicators still show a relatively tight state since the pandemic.Under the pressures of debt and financial market stability, the trend of liquidity expansion is likely to be a high-probability event, and there is a possibility of a sustained global asset bull market.

According to Jinshi reports, the CICC research report states that in the short term, Walsh's nomination has limited impact on the interest rate cut path, but it may lead to a revision of expectations for dollar liquidity, and the pressure for dollar depreciation may temporarily ease.In the medium term, Walsh's claims face constraints from within the Federal Reserve, capital markets, and fiscal policies, and it is still difficult to conclude whether he will ultimately succeed. Investors should prepare in advance and be ready.

According to Jin10 reports, the CICC research report pointed out that the Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged at the January meeting, which aligns with market expectations. Governor Waller cast a dissenting vote, possibly related to his desire to be nominated as the next Federal Reserve Chair.Powell stated that monetary policy is "in a good place," indicating that the threshold for another rate cut in the short term has increased. CICC expects the Federal Reserve to still be able to cut rates twice in 2026, but the first rate cut may be delayed until the second quarter.

According to Jinshi reports, CICC predicts that U.S. inflation will see a compensatory rise in the CPI data for December 2025, January 2026, and April 2026.If recent U.S. inflation remains strong, it may lead the Federal Reserve to slow down the pace of interest rate cuts, resulting in a marginal tightening of global liquidity and an increase in uncertainty for major domestic and foreign assets. CICC recommends increasing allocation to commodities to hedge against risks, and to increase allocation to stocks, gold, and U.S. Treasuries when asset prices pull back.

According to Jinshi reports, the CICC research report states that the Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points at the December meeting, but the number of officials opposing the rate cut has increased to two, indicating that the threshold for further rate cuts is rising. Powell's statements are not strong, and the Federal Reserve announced that it will initiate short-term Treasury bill purchase operations, easing market concerns. Looking ahead, it is expected that the Federal Reserve may continue to cut rates in 2026, with the next rate cut possibly in March.

According to a report by CICC, under the baseline scenario, if Hassett becomes the new Federal Reserve Chairman, it could lead to a temporary decline in U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar, which would overall be beneficial for U.S. stocks.From a timeline perspective, in early 2026, Trump will announce the new chairman nomination. For Hassett, he first needs to be nominated as a Federal Reserve Governor and confirmed by the Senate, then nominated as chairman and confirmed again. He would officially become chairman after the current chairman Powell's term ends in May 2026, and could start to lead the June FOMC meeting.The first quarter of next year will be a critical period for market expectations following the new chairman's nomination. If Hassett expresses overly dovish views at that time, there is a possibility that U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar may temporarily decline more than expected. However, as long as it does not significantly cross into the territory of "concerns about loss of independence," the combination of expectation fulfillment and the recovery of the U.S. economy may lead to an upward trend in U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar.

According to Jinshi reports, the CICC research report points out that considering the possibility of a shift in the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut pace in 2026, it is expected that the variables of U.S. dollar liquidity and market environment will increase after the December FOMC meeting. Weaker U.S. growth and employment data, along with speculation about the next Federal Reserve chair, may raise expectations for interest rate cuts, while current officials' concerns about inflation may suppress those expectations. Therefore, it is believed that the certainty of easing trades in early December is higher, which is more favorable for the performance of various assets.

CICC released its 2026 outlook, stating that from a historical comparison perspective, this round of the gold bull market may not yet be over. The increase and duration of this gold bull market are still lower than the two major upward cycles in the 1970s and 2000s. Considering the current macroeconomic uncertainty, the long-term adjustment of global reserve structures, and the potential downturn of the dollar cycle, we believe the gold bull market has not reached its end. Unless the Federal Reserve completely ends its easing cycle or the U.S. economy re-enters a strong recovery phase of "declining inflation + rising growth," the mid-term upward logic for gold will remain.If the current trend continues, there is a possibility that gold prices could break through $5,000 per ounce next year. Although the bull market logic is clear, gold is indeed one of the currently overvalued major asset classes, which may increase asset volatility. We recommend maintaining an overweight position in gold but reducing speculative trading operations, adopting a strategy of increasing allocation on dips and dollar-cost averaging, and focusing more on the long-term asset allocation value of gold. (Jin Shi)

According to ChainCatcher news, Jin10 reported that the CICC research report stated that the U.S. September CPI seasonally adjusted increased by 0.3% month-on-month and rose to 3% year-on-year. The core CPI increased by 0.2% month-on-month and rose by 3% year-on-year, which is below market expectations. The report pointed out that rent and used car prices have a significant drag, reflecting weakened demand. Overall, the inflation data is relatively mild, supporting the Federal Reserve to continue cutting interest rates, with an expected reduction of 25 basis points in both October and December.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, the China International Capital Corporation research report states that the risk events of two banks in the U.S. recently are smaller in scale and severity compared to the previous round, and are more about the emotional fermentation brought by localized individual credit risk events, which do not currently constitute a systemic shock to the financial system. This event reflects the trend of rising credit risk in a high-interest-rate environment, which may lead to a decrease in risk appetite in the credit market and tightening of loan conditions, thus triggering further liquidity contraction. However, before clear signs of recession appear in the overall U.S. economy, credit tightening may be relatively mild, making it difficult to form a "crisis" situation.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, China International Capital Corporation (CICC) released a research report stating that the Federal Reserve will restart interest rate cuts in September, entering a new phase of the dollar easing cycle. As inflation confirmed an upward turning point in August, and the Federal Reserve may downplay inflationary pressures, it is expected that the Federal Reserve will cut rates quickly, possibly 3-4 times in a row. Looking ahead, October may still be a window period for liquidity resonance, and the relative cost-effectiveness of A-shares and Hong Kong stocks compared to U.S. stocks is higher, suggesting to maintain an overweight position in gold.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, the China International Capital Corporation research report states that the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut cycle may be divided into three phases: the first phase in Q4 2025, with a relatively fast pace of rate cuts, possibly cutting rates 3-4 times in a row; the second phase in the first half of 2026, with a slower pace of rate cuts. As inflation continues to rise, the Federal Reserve may need to rebalance the risks of economic downturn and rising inflation, making it impossible to sustain rapid rate cuts, and may calm the financial markets by stopping "balance sheet reduction." The second half of the year will be the third phase, where the pace of rate cuts accelerates again.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jin10 reports, the China International Capital Corporation research report states that the Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points again in October, but the threshold for rate cuts will become increasingly high. Due to weak employment data, rising inflation will limit the space for monetary easing. The current issue with the U.S. economy is rising costs, and excessive monetary easing may exacerbate inflation, leading the economy into a "stagflation-like" predicament.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, the China International Capital Corporation research report states that in the short term, under significant inflationary pressure in the United States, if interest rates are still lowered, economic recovery and rising inflation may accelerate. It is expected that the ten-year interest rate will rise to around 4.8% within the year. In the long term, if fiscal dominance is gradually realized in the next one to two years, the central tendency of the U.S. Treasury yield curve may be overall lowered, and short-term rates will decline along with interest rate cuts.

ChainCatcher news, according to Jin10 reports, the China International Capital Corporation (CICC) research report pointed out that Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole meeting was interpreted by the market as a "dovish" signal, but did not provide guidance on the persistence and magnitude of interest rate cuts. CICC believes that Powell's remarks clarify the Federal Reserve's "reaction function," which tends to lower interest rates when employment risks outweigh inflation. However, under the current high tariffs and tightened immigration policies, both employment and inflation risks coexist, and Powell may stop cutting rates when inflation risks surpass employment. The market should recognize the challenges facing monetary policy, and risk appetite may decline, leading to increased volatility.