UncommonGoods: Supply, Valuation, Currency Price, Profit Strategy

Author: BTCBot Chinese This article is reprinted from BTCBot Chinese Community Medium: https://medium.com/btcbotcn/uncommongoods-supply-valuation-token-price-profit-strategy-43aeee905307

UncommonGoods is about to become the genesis rune on the Rune Protocol, a fungible token first launched by Casey, the founder of Ordinals, attracting widespread attention from the market. Due to its unique issuance method, many potential investors and users are curious about how to participate, while also filled with questions about its future performance and value.

This article aims to explore the following key issues:

• The launch time of UncommonGoods;

• Is there a cap on the supply of UncommonGoods?

• The valuation of UncommonGoods;

• Price prediction for UncommonGoods;

• How to participate in UncommonGoods: profit strategies for minting and trading.

Time

UncommonGoods will officially launch at the BTC halving block (block height: 840,000, expected to be at UTC time April 20, 2024, 9:10) with no pre-mining, a fair launch, and everyone can participate.

Total Supply

The mintable total supply of UncommonGoods is set in the code to have no cap, with a time limit between two BTC halving blocks, which is about 4 years. Due to the characteristics of the Bitcoin blockchain, its total supply can be estimated. Each UncommonGoods represents one token, and BTC has a block approximately every 10 minutes, with each block containing 2,000–5,000 transactions (txns), most of the time around 3,000 txns. Only a portion of these txns are for minting UncommonGoods, based on this, we can make the following calculations:

If there are 500 txns in a block that are minting UncommonGoods,

Daily supply: 500 * 6 * 24 = 72,000

Weekly supply: 500 * 6 * 24 * 7 = 504,000

Monthly supply: 500 * 6 * 24 * 30 = 2,160,000

Yearly supply: 500 * 6 * 24 * 365 = 26,280,000

Total supply: 500 * 6 * 24 * 365 * 4 = 105,120,000

If there are 1,000 txns in a block that are minting UncommonGoods, then the total supply would be 210.24M --- --- this is almost the maximum value under extreme conditions. Over four years, an average of 10–20% of transactions (500 txns) being minting UncommonGoods is a relatively rational estimate, under this estimate, the total amount of UncommonGoods would be around 100 million tokens.

Valuation

As a star project, the valuation of UncommonGoods can be referenced against Runestone, Ordi, and Sats. Runestone is a BTC NFT project, whose founder is also the founder of Ord.io. Due to its free & fair concept and the promise to airdrop Runes tokens to NFT holders after launch, its price skyrocketed, and its current market value has reached 800 million USD. Ordi and Sats are the top 2 tokens by market cap in the Ordinals BRC20, with market caps of 1.58 billion USD and 1 billion USD respectively.

As the genesis rune of the Rune Protocol and Casey's first issued token, UncommonGoods has industry influence comparable to the aforementioned three, and its long-term market value can be simply estimated at 1-2 billion USD.

Price Prediction

If the long-term market value of UncommonGoods is estimated at 1 billion USD, with a 4-year supply cap of 100 million tokens, then the estimated token price would be 10 USD.

In the early stages of launch, the circulating supply will be very low. Under rational minting conditions, the weekly supply is 504,000, and the monthly supply is 2,160,000. However, early market may experience FOMO, leading to increased minting, causing the circulating supply to rise short-term by 200%-300% (1,000–1,500 mint/block), meaning that the circulating supply could reach 1M-1.5M in the first week. If the market cap reaches 50M, then the price range for the first week would be 33U-50U; if the market cap reaches 100M, the price range would be 66U-100U.

If a month later, the market cap reaches 150–300M, the supply of UncommonGoods would be two or three times the 2,160,000, i.e., 4M-6M, with a price range of 25U-75U.

Based on the above estimates, the price fluctuation range for UncommonGoods in the first month is 25–100U; the narrow fluctuation range is 35–60U. The longer-term price range is approximately 10–20U.

The above estimates are based on circulating supply and token market cap, and actual price performance may be lower or higher than this range, which will only be known after the launch.

Profit Strategies for Minting and Trading

Profitability depends on two conditions: cost and price.

Through BTCBot's Auto Sniper feature, minting costs can be precisely controlled.

If the minting cost is lower than the expected price, it can increase the probability of profit, which requires precise control of the gas price. In BTCBot.pro, users can set the maximum gas price and the number of mints, and minting will start as long as the blockchain network is below this gas price until all mints are completed. For example, in BTCBot Auto Sniper, if the maximum gas price is set to 35sat/vB, token is UncommonGoods, and the mint quantity is 50: minting will only automatically start when the network gas price drops to 35sat/vB, until the task is fully completed.

Through BTCBot's limit buy order feature, purchase costs can be precisely controlled.

At the same time, BTCBot has a limit buy order delegation feature, allowing users to set the purchase price and quantity, as well as "slippage." Here, the gas fee will affect the overall purchase cost, and in BTCBot, the impact of gas fee is referred to as "slippage." For example, if the limit buy order condition is set to: 10U/token, buying 100 tokens, with a maximum slippage of 5%. When there is a sell order in the market for 100 tokens at a price of 10U/token, and it requires a gas fee of 3U, then the slippage is 3÷1000=0.3%, and this limit buy order will be triggered and executed; if there is a sell order for 1 token at a price of 9U, and the transaction incurs a gas fee of 3U, then the slippage is 3÷9=33.3%, which is higher than the set maximum slippage of 5%, so this transaction will not be triggered.

As long as cost control is well managed through tools, whether minting or trading, there are profit opportunities with UncommonGoods.

In summary, this article explains the launch time, total supply estimates, valuation, price predictions, and profit strategies for minting and trading of UncommonGoods, hoping to assist enthusiasts of Rune Protocol and UncommonGoods. In the future, BTCBot will launch more practical arbitrage tools, so stay tuned.