HTX DeepThink: After returning to $100,000, what is the next step for Bitcoin?

HTX DeepThink is a crypto market insight column created by Huobi HTX, focusing on global macro trends, core economic data, and hot topics in the crypto industry, injecting new thinking power into the market. In the unpredictable crypto world, it helps readers "find order in chaos."

In last week's HTX DeepThink column, HTX Research Chloe (@ChloeTalk1) combined macro data to predict a liquidity window might appear in early May, with funds flowing back into the crypto market; on the evening of May 8, Bitcoin returned to $100,000 after three months, and Ethereum also broke through the $2,000 mark, confirming the analyst's judgment. How long can this upward momentum last? What significance does the latest tariff agreement reached between the U.S. and the U.K. hold? In this special extended edition of HTX DeepThink, Chloe will provide new interpretations.

The Symbolic Significance of New Hampshire and Texas Promoting "Bitcoin National Strategic Reserves" Legislation

On May 7, New Hampshire officially became the first U.S. state to pass a Bitcoin strategic reserve bill, authorizing the state treasury to purchase BTC through spot ETFs or the market. Texas's SB 21 bill has completed all committee reviews and is expected to enter the final vote in the next three weeks. This represents Bitcoin being formally included in the perspective of "sovereign assets," possessing a partial substitute status for government bonds and gold; at the same time, the BTC purchasing mechanism led by local governments may replicate to 10-15 Republican states, providing medium to long-term buying support for spot ETFs and on-chain markets.

This is a crucial market signal------even if the federal level remains cautious, the state level has already initiated the institutional engineering of BTC reserves.

The U.S.-U.K. Tariff Agreement Releases a "De-risking" Signal

On May 8, the U.S. and U.K. reached a breakthrough agreement on trade tariffs, including the U.K. opening agricultural tariffs to the U.S. in exchange for a reduction in U.S. auto tariffs; tariffs on U.K. steel and aluminum exports to the U.S. were reduced to 0%; the U.S. retains a 10% "reciprocal tariff" framework on imports from the U.K., although the U.K. has a trade deficit with the U.S. in goods, the actual economic driving significance of this agreement is limited, but it releases some easing space. U.S. Secretary of Commerce Gina Raimondo also expressed hope that the next trade agreement announced would be from a major country in Asia, indicating that the Trump administration is willing to release structural positives in trade.

The Market Pricing Structure of Bitcoin is Transitioning from "Volatile Trading Logic" to "Structural Capital Allocation Logic"

As easing signals are gradually released from the policy side, the capital flow structure of Bitcoin has also undergone profound changes. In the past three weeks, net inflows into U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs reached $5.3 billion, setting a single-season peak since their launch. This inflow is not driven by retail but is primarily centered around institutional actions such as the Abu Dhabi sovereign wealth fund, the Swiss central bank increasing its holdings of MicroStrategy stock, and BlackRock ETF positions rising. This marks a transition in Bitcoin's market pricing structure from "volatile trading logic" to "structural capital allocation logic." In this process, BTC is no longer an appendage of risk assets but gradually establishes its own independent capital flow ecosystem, becoming a "supranational asset" in the eyes of some investors, positioned between gold and U.S. Treasuries.

Currently, there are no signs of a "frenzied surge" in the market, with Bitcoin options implied volatility (IV) stabilizing between 50% and 55%, far below the 80% or more commonly seen at historical bull market peaks; CME Bitcoin futures open interest is about $14.8 billion, lower than the $20 billion peak when Trump was elected in 2020; the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield has repeatedly tested 4.60% without success, currently maintaining around 4.40%. Overall, as long as U.S. Treasury yields do not rise above 4.8% again and ETF funds continue to flow in, Bitcoin is expected to oscillate and consolidate between $105,000 and $115,000, waiting for the next breakthrough opportunity.

Potential Risks: U.S.-China and U.S.-Europe Trade Negotiations May Escalate Tariff Wars

However, caution is warranted regarding the risks that U.S.-China and U.S.-Europe trade negotiations may not go smoothly. U.S. President Trump has made it clear that he will not lower the 145% high tariffs imposed on China to restart trade negotiations with China. Additionally, European Commission Trade and Economic Security Commissioner Valdis Dombrovskis stated that if negotiations between the EU and the U.S. on tariffs fail, the EU will be prepared to take retaliatory measures to rebalance bilateral trade relations. The EU is ready to impose tariffs on U.S. goods worth about €100 billion. These potential escalations in trade friction could negatively impact global market sentiment, thereby putting pressure on risk assets such as Bitcoin.

"HTX DeepThink: Finding Order in Chaos"

Note: The content of this article does not constitute investment advice, nor does it constitute any offer, solicitation, or recommendation of investment products.

About HTX Research

HTX Research is the exclusive research department under HTX Group, responsible for in-depth analysis across a wide range of areas including cryptocurrencies, blockchain technology, and emerging market trends, writing comprehensive reports, and providing professional assessments. HTX Research is committed to providing data-driven insights and strategic foresight, playing a key role in shaping industry perspectives and supporting informed decision-making in the digital asset space. With rigorous research methodologies and cutting-edge data analysis, HTX Research consistently stands at the forefront of innovation, leading the development of industry thought and facilitating a deeper understanding of the ever-changing market dynamics.