Trade liberalization + institutional inflow: Can BTC reach a new high of $150,000?

Bitcoin has once again broken through the $100,000 mark, reigniting enthusiasm among investors and newcomers. Over the past week, the price of BTC surged from around $88,000 to approximately $100,000, driven not only by traditional catalysts such as ETF inflows and Federal Reserve policies but also by Trump's new trade agreement with the UK, which he described as "the first of many agreements." The clarity in the macroeconomic landscape and the optimism in geopolitical sentiment have injected new vitality into the cryptocurrency market.

In this article, we will unravel:

• Why Trump's trade agreement is so important for Bitcoin and the broader market
• A simple explanation of the technical roadmap for $100,000 and above
• Fundamental drivers: Federal Reserve policy, trade tensions, and institutional flows
• Price scenarios from conservative to aggressive

Why Trade Agreements Trigger Bitcoin Volatility
Trump's Oval Office Announcement

On May 8, the US and the UK reached a new trade agreement, marking his first formal trade pact since launching the "reciprocal tariffs" policy on "D-Day." Under the agreement, both countries will partially withdraw tariffs in specific areas and significantly open up market access. Trump also hinted that this would be "the first of many agreements." The market interpreted this as a sign that global trade tensions (especially the tariff war with China and Europe) might ease, boosting risk appetite across asset classes.
From Trade Tensions to Renewed Risk Appetite

Cryptocurrencies are often viewed similarly to other risk assets: they suffer during periods of heightened uncertainty and rebound when market clarity returns. Trump's statement "restored global risk appetite," which had previously been suppressed by recent tariff threats and economic uncertainty.
Federal Reserve Maintains Interest Rates, Further Impacting Sentiment

The Federal Reserve's decision to keep interest rates at 4.25%-4.50% further intensified market optimism. Fed Chair Jerome Powell noted that the "increased uncertainty" in trade policy was one of the reasons for pausing tightening measures, which is a dovish signal for the market. Lower borrowing costs and ongoing liquidity often drive capital into high-growth assets, including Bitcoin.
Bitcoin Chart Patterns

Chart patterns indicate that Bitcoin has broken out of a shallow descending wedge since April. By measuring the height of the wedge and adding it to the breakout point, the first target price is predicted to be around $107,000. With continued ETF inflows and trading optimism, Bitcoin's price could test $115,000 in the coming weeks.
Fundamental Drivers Beyond the Charts
Institutional ETF Flows

After a brief stagnation, the US spot Bitcoin ETF has seen net inflows again, expected to be between $300 million to $400 million weekly. Every dollar flowing into the ETF typically means a dollar less available on exchanges, tightening supply and supporting prices.
Global Trade Environment

For months, trade tensions with China and Europe have loomed over the market. Trump's agreement with the UK and reports that tariffs could "drop in a few weeks" have changed market sentiment. The market now believes that geopolitical risks are receding, making risk assets like Bitcoin more attractive.
State-Level Adoption in the US

Adding fuel to Bitcoin's fire, several US states have begun to embrace cryptocurrencies. New Hampshire has become the first state to allow up to 5% of its reserves to be invested in digital assets, given Bitcoin's market cap threshold of $500 billion. Texas and Arizona have also introduced similar legislation, indicating growing institutional recognition of Bitcoin, solidifying its status as digital gold.
Price Scenarios: From Cautious to Bold
Conservative Scenario: $100,000 to $110,000

• Catalysts: Federal Reserve clearly maintaining interest rates, confirmation of the UK trade agreement, stable ETF fund flows
• Path: BTC breaks $100,000, then stalls around $105,000 as profit-taking begins.
• Timeline: 2-4 weeks

Baseline Scenario: $110,000 to $130,000

• Catalysts: Multiple trade agreements announced, continued institutional inflows, renewed "fear of missing out" sentiment among retail investors
• Path: Successful breakout above $100,000 attracts algorithmic buyers, pushing BTC to break $120,000 to $130,000.
• Timeline: 1-2 months

Bullish Scenario: $130,000 to above $150,000

• Catalysts: Unexpected rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, large corporate bond allocations, global regulatory clarity
• Path: Parabolic momentum drives BTC towards $150,000, testing historical highs.
• Timeline: 3-6 months

Risks to Watch

1. Sell-the-News Pullback
   If Trump's commitments disappoint—either through poor implementation of the agreement or minor tariff adjustments—Bitcoin may retrace its initial gains.
2. Unexpected Hawkish Fed Policy
   A shift to rate hikes to combat more stubborn inflation could weaken risk appetite.
3. Geopolitical Shocks Elsewhere
   Tensions in the Middle East, sanctions on Russia—could prompt capital to flow back into safe havens like the dollar and gold.
4. Technical Reversal
   Failure to hold the $90,000 support level could trigger a chain reaction of stop-loss orders, bringing BTC back to $85,000.

Macro Perspective: The Role of Cryptocurrency in a Rapidly Changing World

Bitcoin nearing $100,000 is not just a price story; it reflects a broader evolution:

• Digital Gold Narrative: As fiat currencies fluctuate, BTC's fixed supply and global influence make it an attractive hedge against inflation.
• Institutional Acceptance: ETFs, national reserve bonds, and corporate treasury bonds signify the growing mainstream legitimacy.
• Geopolitical Diversification: As countries explore central bank digital currencies and decentralized finance, the optimism around trade agreements now shares the stage with debates on digital sovereignty.

In this dynamic landscape, Bitcoin serves as both a speculative asset and a barometer of global economic confidence.
Conclusion

Bitcoin has surpassed the $100,000 mark, drawing significant market attention, with Trump's trade agreement and the Federal Reserve's dovish stance adding new momentum to its rally. Whether Bitcoin can break through the $110,000 barrier in the coming weeks or embark on a long-term sprint towards $150,000 will depend on factors such as technical breakthroughs, macro clarity, and institutional participation. For both newcomers and experts, the key lies in balancing target price levels with risk management: setting clear price targets, establishing defined stop-loss points, and closely monitoring important catalysts.