War and Bitcoin: A Major Test for Cryptocurrency Concept Stocks Amidst the Plunge

Author: Top.one

Amid the sounds of geopolitical cannon fire, Bitcoin's sharp drop below $100,000 unveiled the brutal stress test of public companies' "crypto strategies."

The smoke of war in the Middle East quickly spread to the global financial markets. On June 22, the U.S. launched a direct military strike on Iran's nuclear facilities, and Iran threatened to close the Strait of Hormuz—a key passageway that transports 20% of the world's crude oil. Following the news, Bitcoin plummeted over 5% within 24 hours, falling sharply from a high of $103,524 and briefly dipping below the critical psychological level of $90,000.
The market was in turmoil: over 220,000 people were liquidated within 24 hours, with liquidation amounts reaching $486 million, nearly 90% of which were long positions betting on price increases. Mainstream coins like Ethereum and SOL also saw significant declines, and the "digital gold" narrative lost its luster under the threat of real war.
This sudden storm pushed two starkly different camps in the U.S. stock market—the radicals who view Bitcoin as the "new treasury" and the conservatives who watch from the sidelines—into a brutal stress test arena.

01 The Dilemma of Radicals: The Market Value Defense Battle of Coin Hoarding Companies

As Bitcoin's price plunged like a roller coaster, shareholders of Strategy held their breath. This company has deeply tied its fate to Bitcoin—holding an astonishing 590,000 BTC, accounting for nearly 3% of the circulating total.
Just before the storm, Strategy increased its holdings by 245 Bitcoins at an average price of $105,856, marking the 11th consecutive week of accumulation. The myth of its stock price soaring 3180% over the past five years was built on optimistic expectations of Bitcoin's unilateral rise. However, the crash triggered by war instantly exposed the fatal weakness of this model: the dual strangulation of high leverage and high volatility.
Similarly, the radical Game Stop (GME) and Trump Media (DJT) also found themselves in a predicament. GME had previously announced a high-profile investment of $513 million to acquire 4,710 Bitcoins, becoming the 13th largest publicly traded company by Bitcoin holdings; while DJT initiated a $2.5 billion Bitcoin treasury plan, with most of the funds raised for buying coins.
When Bitcoin fell below $100,000, these companies' balance sheets came under immediate pressure. Especially for companies like GME, which already had poor cash flow, the double whammy of falling stock and coin prices could trigger a vicious cycle: falling coin prices lead to impairment in financial reports, falling stock prices reduce financing ability, and they can no longer "support the market."
Ironically, new players continued to enter the fray amid the crash. Last week, global listed companies net purchased $198 million in Bitcoin, including Japan's Metaplanet, which spent $118 million to increase its holdings by 1,111 BTC, as well as four new companies like medical firm Prenetics and France's Blockchain Group that established positions for the first time.
These newcomers face a severe "time lock": if Bitcoin continues to be under pressure, their strategy of emulating MicroStrategy to boost market value may quickly backfire, and they may even face shareholder doubts due to high-level purchases.

02 The Composure of Conservatives: The "Cold Eye" of Giants and Strategic Depth

As geopolitical risks swept the market, the decisions of tech giants like Meta, Amazon, and Microsoft to reject Bitcoin reserves revealed profound strategic composure.
At the 2025 Meta shareholder meeting, over 90% of shareholders voted against a proposal to convert part of the company's $72 billion cash reserves into Bitcoin. Microsoft and Amazon made similar choices, forming a "conservative alliance" in Silicon Valley.
The logic behind this became increasingly clear amid the turmoil of war:

• Unbearable Volatility: Bitcoin's more than 5% fluctuation within 24 hours is an intolerable risk for giants pursuing financial stability. The chief financial officer's duty is to safeguard asset stability, not to speculate for profit.
• Regulatory and Compliance Fog: The U.S. "GENIUS Act" remains undecided, and the fires of war add regulatory uncertainties. Until the compliance framework is clarified, giants are unwilling to take risks.
• Focus on Core Business: As the AI arms race heats up, cloud services and algorithm iterations are the battlegrounds for giants. The speculative noise surrounding Bitcoin may distract from strategic focus.
  More importantly, these giants possess strong cash flows and diversified asset allocations. Apple holds over a hundred billion in cash and short-term debt, while Microsoft's AAA-rated bonds can be liquidated at any time—there's no need for them to seek "magic" on their balance sheets through Bitcoin.
  The market panic triggered by war instead validated their strategy: when Bitcoin evaporated $250 billion in market value in a single day due to the Middle East situation, the stock prices of tech giants were affected, but their foundations remained unshaken. Safe-haven funds ultimately flowed into the U.S. dollar and gold, confirming the resilience of traditional safe assets in extreme times.

03 War Reassessment: The Paradigm Shift of Crypto Asset Attributes

This geopolitical conflict is reshaping the fundamental understanding of crypto assets in the market.
The correlation between Bitcoin and the Nasdaq index has surged to an all-time high, with its performance resembling that of high-risk tech stocks rather than true safe-haven assets. When oil prices soared by 10% due to geopolitical risks and the VIX fear index spiked, Bitcoin simultaneously plummeted, exposing the fragility of its "digital gold" narrative.
The real test lies in liquidity pressure testing. During Bitcoin's drop below $100,000, over $1 billion in crypto leverage positions were liquidated, with 95% being long positions. Decentralized exchanges experienced liquidity vacuums, and even the euro to dollar exchange rate bizarrely surged to 1.8 at one point, revealing a lack of market depth under extreme conditions.
The attitude of institutional funds has become a key variable. Although BlackRock's spot Bitcoin ETF had attracted $420 million in a single day during the April Iran conflict, forming a "volatility buffer," the inflow of ETF funds during this round of declines plummeted from $1.04 billion at the beginning of the week to $6.4 million by the weekend, indicating a retreat of large funds amid the uncertainty of war.
A deeper contradiction lies in Bitcoin's attempt to play dual roles as both an "anti-inflation asset" and a "risk growth asset." When war drives up oil prices, potentially causing inflation (benefiting Bitcoin), it simultaneously suppresses risk appetite (negatively impacting Bitcoin), leading to a split in its internal logic.

04 Market Fragmentation: The Birth of New Balance and New Logic

The cannon fire of geopolitical conflict has not extinguished the game of capital; rather, it has catalyzed a deep fragmentation of the crypto market. The future landscape is accelerating its reconstruction along three paths:

• Refinement of Coin Hoarding Strategies: The rough "buy-hold-wait for appreciation" model faces elimination. New entrants like Metaplanet choose to layer their purchases at lower prices ($98,000/$95,000/$92,000) combined with strict stop-losses (3%-5% below each level). MicroStrategy, leveraging its bond financing capabilities, continues to accumulate during the downturn, turning the crisis into an opportunity to dilute costs.
• Shrinking Regulatory Arbitrage Space: The U.S. "GENIUS Act" is nearing a vote, requiring 100% reserves for stablecoins and federal regulation. Compliant players like Circle (CRCL) will benefit, while arbitrage behaviors relying on regulatory ambiguity will have nowhere to hide.
• Strong Entry of Traditional Finance: JPMorgan has applied for the "JPMD" crypto trademark and is exploring the issuance of compliant stablecoins in collaboration with Bank of America. As institutions like Goldman Sachs obtain crypto clearing licenses, grassroots narratives will completely yield to the Wall Street-led crypto finance 2.0 era.
  The role of crypto assets is also quietly evolving amid the war. Although Bitcoin's "safe-haven halo" has faded, its practical value in war-torn regions has become prominent: Ukraine received $127 million in aid through cryptocurrency, accounting for 6.5% of early international donations; the Gaza Strip uses Bitcoin mining machines to maintain communication networks; Iranian oil merchants use mixers to bypass sanctions.
  These marginal ecosystems coexist with mainstream finance, forming the "light and dark dual lines" of the crypto world.

Summary Thoughts: The Crypto World After the Smoke Clears

As Bitcoin falls below the $100,000 mark amid the flames of war, the destinies of two types of listed companies have become clear: MicroStrategy's stock price fluctuates violently with the coin price, forced to struggle for survival in the vortex of leverage; while tech giants like Meta maintain their course amid the storm, relying on cash reserves and business resilience.
This crash has thoroughly exposed the fatal flaw of the "Bitcoin balance sheet" strategy—it amplifies the glory of bull markets but also magnifies the pain of bear markets. As war raises volatility, newcomers like GameStop may find it difficult to replicate MicroStrategy's myth.
A deeper transformation lies in the reconstruction of market perception. Bitcoin is moving from the romantic notion of "digital gold" to a more complex positioning: it is both an emerging value storage tool and a high-risk tech asset, as well as a financial lifeline in times of conflict. Its value is no longer determined by a single narrative but is defined collectively by institutional fund flows, regulatory frameworks, and real application scenarios.
The future belongs to two types of enterprises: one is crypto-native institutions like Circle that are deeply bound to the trend of compliance; the other is giants like JPMorgan that crush their way into the market with traditional financial strength. Companies that attempt to use Bitcoin "magic" to embellish their financial reports will ultimately reveal their true nature under cyclical tests.
When the cannon fire temporarily ceases, the real winners may be those enterprises that steadfastly maintain their core business and steadily build crypto capabilities amid turmoil. After all, in the eternal laws of the financial world, the ability to withstand risks always holds more survival value than speculative revelry.