After the interest rate cut, how far can the institutional bull market go?

2025-09-18 17:50:56

Collection

This report provides an in-depth analysis of the current cryptocurrency market led by institutions, highlighting that mainstream coins such as BTC, ETH, SOL, and BNB have all reached new highs, with BTC and BNB continuing to rise over 40% after breaking historical peaks. The report explores the institutional allocation logic and holding differences of these three major coins (BTC, ETH, SOL), and focuses on the new trends of SOL DAT (tokenized stocks) as a new concept in the cryptocurrency sector.

The dominant force in this market cycle comes from institutions.

BTC, ETH, SOL, and BNB, the four major cryptocurrencies, have all reached new highs, but only BTC and BNB have continued to rise over 40% after breaking their historical peaks. SOL broke through earlier this year due to the Trump coin issuance event, while ETH was revalued mid-year driven by DAT buying, but neither has continued to set new highs.

Last night, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates. How far can this institution-led market cycle go?

1. Institutional Allocation Logic of the Three Major Cryptocurrencies

The positioning of crypto assets directly determines their long-term value, with different positions corresponding to different institutional allocation logic.

Bitcoin: Anti-Inflation Properties of Digital Gold

Positioned as "Digital Gold," its long-term logic is strongly tied to fiat currency inflation cycles. Data shows that its market cap growth is synchronized with Global M2 and negatively correlated with the US dollar index. Its core value lies in "anti-inflation + preservation and appreciation," making it a foundational asset for institutional allocation.

Ethereum: Institutional Narrative Dividend of the World Computer

Positioned as the "World Computer," although the "Layer 2 scaling" narrative promoted by the foundation has not gained recognition in the capital markets, its stable system with no downtime for 10 years has caught the development wave of institutional narratives such as USD stablecoins, RWA, and tokenization of US stocks, freeing it from the collapse of the Web3 narrative. With the key push from DAT, it has achieved market cap revaluation. Ethereum is set to become the settlement network for institutional-level applications due to its stability and security.

Solana: Active Advantage of Network Capital Markets

Positioned as "Internet Capital Markets," ICM refers to the on-chain asset issuance, trading, and clearing system. It achieved a "rebirth" after the FTX collapse crisis. From the beginning of the year to now, it has accounted for 46% of on-chain trading volume, with daily active users consistently exceeding 3 million, making it the most active blockchain network currently. Solana will leverage its superior performance and high liquidity to support the native on-chain trading ecosystem of Crypto.

The three have different positions, leading to different institutional allocation logic. Traditional financial institutions first understand the value of Bitcoin, then consider developing their institutional business based on Ethereum, and finally may recognize the value of on-chain trading. This is a typical path: questioning, understanding, becoming.

2. Gradient Differences in Institutional Holdings of the Three Major Cryptocurrencies

The institutional holding data for BTC, ETH, and SOL shows significant gradient differences, reflecting the degree and pace of institutional recognition for these three projects. Table created by: IOBC Capital

From the comparison, it can be seen that: the institutional holding as a percentage of circulating supply for BTC and ETH is > 18%; SOL currently stands at only 9.5%, indicating potential room for growth.

3. SOL DAT: New Trends in Crypto Concept Stocks

In the past month, 18 SOL DAT companies have emerged, directly driving SOL up over 50% from its low in August.

Notable SOL DAT companies: Table created by: IOBC Capital

Among the existing SOL DAT companies, Forward Industries, led by Multicoin Capital founder Kyle Samani, may become the leader in SOL DAT.

Unlike the simple hoarding of BTC DAT, many SOL DAT companies are building their own Solana Validators, making this endeavor not limited to "NAV games." Instead of merely waiting for token appreciation, they continuously generate cash flow through Validator operations. This strategy is akin to "hoarding + mining," aiming for both long-term and immediate gains.

4. Crypto Concept Stocks: A Reflection of Capital Market Bets

Crypto concept stocks serve as a new bridge between traditional capital and the crypto market, with the degree of recognition by traditional financial markets for various Crypto businesses also reflected in the stock performance of crypto concept stocks. Table created by: IOBC Capital

Reviewing the recent significant gains in crypto concept stocks reveals two common characteristics:

Heavy bets are needed for valuation re-evaluation. There are 189 publicly listed companies holding BTC, but only 30 have holdings valued at 70% of their stock market cap, and only 12 hold more than 10,000 BTC—these 12 have seen considerable gains. ETH DAT listed companies show a similar pattern. A superficial DAT strategy can only trigger short-term stock price fluctuations without substantially boosting stock market cap and liquidity.
Business synergy amplifies commercial value. Transforming single-point businesses into multi-faceted industry chain layouts can amplify commercial value. For example, Robinhood has formed a business closed loop through its involvement in cryptocurrency trading, real-world asset trading (RRE), and participation in USDG stablecoin, leading to continuous stock price highs. In contrast, Trump Media, despite its significant involvement in crypto (holding BTC, applying for ETH ETF, issuing coins like Trump, Melania, WLFI, etc.), lacks business synergy, resulting in a muted market response to both its stock and coins.