Matrixport Research: IPOs May Become the Strongest Source of Alpha in the New Crypto Cycle

The evolution of this round of the cryptocurrency market cycle is markedly different from previous ones. Funds are gradually withdrawing from high-risk early projects and shifting towards mature companies nearing IPOs. Bitcoin continues to outperform altcoins, venture capital funds, and hedge funds, highlighting the "the strong get stronger" pattern. Meanwhile, retail enthusiasm has noticeably waned, while institutional funds are concentrating on companies that can scale and have the potential to enter the public market.

Retail Exit, Institutional Takeover: Capital Flows Accelerate Concentration

On-chain data indicates that the ongoing sell-off by miners and early holders has nearly offset the inflows from ETFs and corporate treasuries, leading to a decrease in market volatility and a corresponding reduction in Bitcoin's appeal to high-risk investors. Against this backdrop, retail investors are gradually exiting, while institutional funds are accelerating their investments in companies with scaling effects that are close to IPOs. This trend suggests that the market is no longer solely driven by speculative sentiment but is determined by capital strength and compliance pathways that dictate the winners. The entry of institutions not only raises the participation threshold but is also reshaping industry valuation logic and capital allocation patterns.

IPO Pipeline Becomes the Focus: Low Liquidity and Pricing Strategies Shape Opportunities

Wall Street has a strong incentive to extend the cycle, making late-stage equity and IPO-ready companies the focal point. The current market's IPO projects are of moderate scale and have limited liquidity, a characteristic that often exacerbates post-listing volatility. For investors, securing allocation shares could become one of the most alpha-potential strategies in this cycle. Unlike early tokens, IPO allocations offer a clearer exit path and higher institutional participation, attracting more long-term capital.

Overall, the main theme of this cycle is no longer early speculation but the robust performance of Bitcoin and late-stage equity investments. Altcoins are under pressure due to token unlocks and financing contractions, making it difficult for venture capital and hedge funds to outperform the market. Capital is concentrating on companies nearing their public listings, further consolidating the industry landscape. For investors, the biggest opportunities in this cycle may not lie in early tokens but in IPO allocations and late-stage equity investments. These directions are not only tracks where institutional capital is actively positioning but may also become core sources for obtaining alpha.

The above viewpoints are sourced from Matrix on Target. Contact us for the complete report from Matrix on Target.

Disclaimer: The market has risks, and investment should be approached with caution. This article does not constitute investment advice. Trading in digital assets may involve significant risks and volatility. Investment decisions should be made after careful consideration of personal circumstances and consulting financial professionals. Matrixport is not responsible for any investment decisions made based on the information provided herein.