What is "Rising October"?

The macro market closed strongly after a turbulent week------the president once again proposed the "TACO strategy," publicly admitting that high tariffs on China are "unsustainable," and confirmed that he will meet with President Xi Jinping in two weeks according to the schedule revealed by Treasury Secretary Basant's team.
The bank earnings season exceeded expectations again, partially alleviating concerns in private credit due to the bankruptcy of First Brands and the write-down of bad debts by subprime auto loan companies (Tricolor wrote off $170 million). Although JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon warned: "Perhaps I shouldn't say it outright, but when you find one cockroach, there are often more hiding in the dark. Everyone needs to stay vigilant." This suggests that more credit defaults may occur in the future.
Third-quarter credit card high-frequency data unexpectedly improved: JPMorgan reported a +9% increase in consumer spending, Citigroup +4%, and Wells Fargo +6.3%, all surpassing the growth rate of the second quarter.
Retail investors aggressively bottom-fished through options during the crash on October 10, driving derivatives trading volume to a two-year high. Traders are betting on a de-escalation of the U.S.-China situation, and this strategy has been profitable for two consecutive times. Can the "TACO trade³" achieve a three-peat?
As the stock and bond markets stabilized on Friday, precious metals experienced their largest decline in six months (silver -5%), showing signs of fatigue after a record rally. Geopolitical risks have increased the volatility of safe-haven assets, and investors locking in profits and reducing risk value (VaR) are likely the main reasons.
Cryptocurrency faced a Waterloo: the aftershocks of the altcoin flash crash have not subsided, and prices fell again last week. Bloomberg data shows that the recent plunge caused BTC DAT² product investors to lose $17 billion, and BTC ETF faced the second-largest weekly outflow of funds this year (-$1.2 billion), with the DAT premium rate dropping to a historical low.
DAT company shareholders profited from buying Bitcoin at a high premium, but the cumulative evaporation of over $55 billion in equity premium since this summer still offers no consolation.
As we have long feared------the hope for a revival of altcoins in this cycle is bleak. The industry's focus has returned to the centralized model of traditional finance (TradFi) (DAT/ETF/private chains), and in the absence of a new narrative, "gambler-style losses" have intensified, leading to a continuous shrinkage of asset management scale (TVL). Ethereum core researcher Dankrad Feist has joined Stripe's Tempo, and China's recent halt on stablecoin plans both indicate a dramatic shift in the industry's ecological values and real dilemmas.
Mining stocks have become a rare highlight: Bitcoin mining companies are transitioning to a "hybrid model," shifting their computing power infrastructure towards AI and high-performance computing (HPC) to chase the AI wave's dividends. This transformation stems from profit squeezes following last year's BTC halving, and whether the industry's continued low computing power can boost coin prices in the medium to long term remains an unresolved mystery.
A final reminder: the U.S. government shutdown has reached a record three weeks, and economic data releases continue to be silent… If the deadlock continues, macro traders may find themselves with nothing to analyze!
Wishing everyone successful trading.