In-depth research on the largest IPO in history: SpaceX / xAI valuation logic, passive buying structure, and tokenization entry path

2026-04-21 17:34:37

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SpaceX integrates xAI with a soaring valuation aiming for 17.5 trillion, Bitget preSPAX becomes the best entry point on the entire network.

SpaceX achieved $15.5 billion in revenue and $8 billion in EBITDA in 2025, with Starlink being the most profitable global satellite network currently. After merging with xAI, the company possesses launch capabilities, global low-Earth orbit bandwidth, and AI inference capabilities—forming a complete closed loop for the orbital data center strategy. The $1.75 trillion IPO target pricing is fundamentally supported, and the index inclusion mechanism will create sustained structural buying after the listing. The most cost-effective entry point is Bitget preSPAX, priced at $650, with an implied valuation of $1.54 trillion, lower than all comparable references.

What is SpaceX: Three Moats, One Vertical Closed Loop

SpaceX's business cannot be understood through a single framework. It is simultaneously a rocket company (with over 60% market share in global commercial launches), a satellite operator (with over 9 million Starlink users across 100+ countries), a defense contractor (with Starshield and Space Force contracts), and starting from February 2026, an AI company (fully consolidating xAI). These four identities are not parallel but have a clear strategic dependency.

Falcon 9 is a cash cow, not a growth engine. With approximately 130 launches in 2025, the commercial price per launch ranges from $67 million to $97 million, capturing over 60% market share. However, the growth of this business is nearing its ceiling, and competition will arise internally once Starship matures. Its value lies in the continuous cash flow that supports the entire company's capital expenditures.

Starlink is the current core asset. Expected revenue of $11.4 billion in 2025, with an EBITDA margin of 63%, is the only business unit that can independently support the company's valuation. Users increased from 4.5 million at the beginning of the year to over 9 million by the end, with a breakthrough of 10 million expected in February 2026. The revenue structure is divided into three tiers: consumer broadband ($120/month), enterprise/maritime/aviation ($5,000+/month), and government defense (Starshield, long-term contracts). Quilty Space predicts that Starlink's total revenue will reach $20 billion in 2026, with EBITDA around $14 billion. This forecast is based on the scaling of D2C (direct-to-consumer) and continued penetration in the enterprise sector, without aggressive assumptions.

xAI is the source of platform premium, not a valuation bubble. After consolidation, SpaceX gains a user base of 64 million MAUs from Grok, over $3.3 billion in advertising and subscription ARR from the X platform, and a complete layout of Musk's AI computing strategy. The exchange ratio of 0.1433 implies a valuation of xAI at $250 billion—this price, when compared to Anthropic ($61.5 billion/$3 billion ARR) and OpenAI ($157 billion/$11 billion ARR), shows that the premium comes from the revenue support of the X platform and Grok's rapid growth, rather than pure narrative.

Spectrum and orbital resources are invisible assets not reflected in financial statements. The $17 billion acquisition of EchoStar's spectrum assets in 2025 secures operational qualifications for Direct-to-Cell. The FCC's spectrum usage rights have shifted from first-come-first-served to auction-based allocation, and SpaceX's early layout forms a competitive barrier in the context of tightening regulations. The Space Force PLEO contract has a ceiling of $13 billion over 10 years, and the Pentagon's military communication contract in Ukraine is worth $537 million—the strategic irreplaceability of government orders far exceeds commercial value.

Orbital Data Center: When AI's Bottleneck Shifts from Computing Power to Electricity

The first hard constraint faced by AI development in 2025-2026 is not chips, but electricity. The construction cycle for the U.S. transmission network lasts 10-15 years, and the distribution infrastructure is severely lagging, making data center site selection increasingly constrained by grid capacity rather than geographical location or labor. Jensen Huang and Sam Altman have mentioned this bottleneck on multiple occasions—this is not a complaint, but a constraint for capital allocation decisions.

The logical starting point for the Orbital Data Center (ODC) is the removal of physical constraints, not engineering gimmicks. Deploying computing nodes in geostationary or low Earth orbit can bypass three core constraints of terrestrial power grids: power capacity, heat dissipation, and data sovereignty compliance.

Core finding from Google's 2025 paper: If LEO launch costs drop below $200/kg, the energy costs for the orbital data center will be between $810-$7,500/kW/year, comparable to terrestrial data centers at $570-$3,000/kW/year, indicating that the economic feasibility threshold has been reached. Starship's target cost: $100/kg.

Space energy density is significantly higher than terrestrial. Solar irradiance received in geostationary orbit is about 1.4 times that of terrestrial peak, with no atmospheric attenuation, and near-Earth orbit can theoretically achieve 24-hour continuous power generation (compared to less than 4 hours of effective generation time for terrestrial photovoltaics). Heat dissipation relies on vacuum radiation rather than mechanical cooling, and thermal management systems can be specifically designed for orbital environments, independent of terrestrial air conditioning infrastructure.

Technical feasibility has empirical evidence, not assumptions. In 2025, Google used V6e Trillium cloud TPUs paired with AMD servers to complete total ionizing dose (TID) and single-event effects (SEE) testing. The conclusion is: except for HBM experiencing brief disorder at a dose of 2 krad (Si), end-to-end computing functioned normally throughout. 2 krad is already three times the required lower limit, indicating that commercial AI chips can operate in orbit under appropriate shielding. This is a Google Research-level paper, not Musk's PPT.

SpaceX is already taking action. By the end of 2025, it will submit an application to the FCC for a planned orbital data center system covering 1 million satellites. Musk has publicly stated that AI satellites will begin launching within 2-3 years. SpaceX is simultaneously laying out large-scale solar manufacturing, with a capacity target of 100 GW, to prepare the supply chain for large-scale deployment of orbital photovoltaic arrays.

The engineering challenges currently faced are real and need to be specified:

Each of the challenges mentioned above has known engineering solutions in principle, and none rely on undiscovered physical laws. Compared to reusable rocket technology before 2015, skeptics believed that recovering first-stage boosters was "feasible in principle, but impractical in engineering"—SpaceX completed offshore recovery in 2016 and began actual reuse in 2017. The engineering challenges faced by ODC are more complex, but the resources mastered by SpaceX are far beyond those of 2015: the largest-scale satellite constellation operational experience globally, the lowest-cost launch system, and AI engineering capabilities after the consolidation with xAI.

More critically, it is uniqueness. No other company simultaneously possesses: large-scale low-cost launch capabilities (Starship), a globally covering low-Earth orbit bandwidth network (Starlink with over 6,000 satellites), AI models and inference capabilities (xAI/Grok), and operational experience in orbit (real-time management of thousands of satellites). Amazon has Kuiper and AWS, but its launch capabilities depend on third parties, making costs uncontrollable. Google lacks launch capabilities and binds itself to SpaceX with a 5% shareholder stake. The moat of this combination is not technological advantage, but the irreproducibility brought by vertical integration.

The weight of ODC in the current valuation should be understood as intrinsic value options, rather than a discount on the main business. Even if ODC can never materialize, Starlink's cash flow is sufficient to support a valuation of over $1 trillion. ODC represents the option value for the valuation to evolve towards $1.75 trillion or higher, and the characteristics of options are: the shorter the time, the higher the technology maturity, the more certain the option value.

Segment Valuation: Is $1.75 trillion Fundamentally Supported?

$1.75 trillion corresponds to $737 per share, which is a 40% premium relative to the merger anchor point of $527. The following SOTP is based on 2026 expected financial data for forward valuation, aiming to assess whether the IPO pricing is within a reasonable range, rather than reiterating the historical anchor point at the time of the merger.

xAI is priced at 60x revenue: Anthropic $61.5 billion/$3 billion ARR (20x), OpenAI $157 billion/$11 billion ARR (14x), with xAI having a higher growth rate and cash flow support from the X platform, making 60x a reasonable upper limit. The Starship option is assumed at $190 billion: a 30% probability of achieving full reuse commercialization, contributing $630 billion in market value under successful scenarios, discounted to $190 billion.

The SOTP forward median is $1.25 trillion ($526 per share), perfectly aligning with the merger anchor point—this indicates that the merger pricing is anchored to fundamental valuation, rather than a premium. The IPO target of $1.75 trillion requires an additional pricing of about $500 billion based on SOTP, needing three types of support:

First, the substantive option value of ODC. If Starship reduces launch costs to $100/kg, the economic feasibility of ODC has been validated in Google's paper. Historically, the market has given option premiums to monopolistic-level platform infrastructures (AWS, Starlink itself), often reflecting in valuations 5-7 years before realization. An ODC option premium of $30 billion to $50 billion is not aggressive.

Second, market scarcity premium. SpaceX is the only publicly investable entity that simultaneously possesses aerospace infrastructure, a global communication network, and AI capabilities. This scarcity has historically corresponded to additional premiums. Palantir (government data + AI) has long enjoyed 40-70x revenue, not due to growth rate, but because there are no substitutes.

Third, the forward discount of structural passive buying. This part will be elaborated in the next section, but the core logic is: passive index inclusion will create billions of dollars in forced buying after the listing, and the market will incorporate this support into the IPO pricing.

Comprehensive judgment: $1.75 trillion is defensible under the 2026E forward valuation framework, with the premium having clear sources, not arbitrarily given. A high-end target of $2.0 trillion requires Starlink 2026E to exceed expectations or ODC to accelerate, with a probability lower than the baseline scenario.

Why the listing is not a peak: The structural buying mechanism of passive funds

Active management investors can choose not to buy, but passive index funds cannot. When SpaceX enters the Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500, all funds tracking these indices must synchronize their allocations, with no exceptions and no timing choices. This is a key structural difference that makes SpaceX's listing different from ordinary IPOs.

Nasdaq passed the SR-NASDAQ-2026-004 rule amendment in Q1 2026 (effective May 1): for newly listed companies entering the top 40 by market capitalization, an assessment is triggered on the 7th trading day, and mandatory inclusion occurs on the 15th trading day. SpaceX enters the global top five with a market cap of $1.75 trillion, leaving no reason not to trigger.

The new rules also introduced a low float multiplier: when public float is below 20%, the index weight calculation should apply a maximum multiplier of 5 times. If SpaceX maintains control and only releases 5% of its shares to the market, the index weight will be calculated based on 25% of the equivalent float market value. This means that the allocation demand for funds tracking QQQ (with a scale of $372.5 billion) may far exceed the total actual float.

1. IPO listing (expected June 2026)

Listing on Nasdaq at $1.75 trillion. Retail allocation at 30% (the highest ever). Musk retains the vast majority of equity to maintain control, resulting in extremely low public float.

2. 7th trading day: Index inclusion assessment trigger

Entering the global top five by market cap, the assessment for Nasdaq 100's top 40 will pass without any suspense. The low float multiplier mechanism is activated, amplifying the equivalent weight to five times the actual float.

3. 15th trading day: All passive funds synchronize mandatory buying

QQQ, QQQM, and all Nasdaq 100 tracking funds will execute allocation instructions simultaneously. Meanwhile, to free up funds, approximately $100 billion in existing weighted stocks such as NVDA, AAPL, and MSFT must be sold simultaneously. Steve Sosnick (Interactive Brokers): "Everyone buys at the same time; who will be the natural seller then?"

4. Five months later: Lock-up period ends, price support has been established

When the 180-day lock-up period for insiders expires, index funds will have completed their positions at a higher price. Structural buying will form price support, allowing insiders to reduce their holdings in an orderly manner. This is not manipulation; it is a mechanism.

Tesla's historical reference: After the announcement of Tesla's inclusion in the S&P 500 in November 2020, Tesla's stock price rose 57% in the 30 days before inclusion. At that time, the valuation was equivalent to the sum of the market caps of the world's top 9 automakers, with a PE ratio in the hundreds. In the six months after inclusion, the stock price fell about 10%—but that was an issue of extreme valuation itself, not a problem with the index inclusion mechanism. SpaceX's fundamental support is significantly stronger than Tesla's in 2020, and EBITDA is positive.

Apollo's chief economist Torsten Slok estimates that if SpaceX and OpenAI go public simultaneously, the combined weight of the top 10 stocks in the S&P 500 will rise from about 40% to nearly 50%. The result of this concentration trend is that index funds effectively become amplifiers for super-weighted stocks, and SpaceX is the most important new component in the coming years.

Google holds about 5% equity in SpaceX, valued at over $100 billion at a $2 trillion valuation. Google is not a passive holder—it signed a long-term data backhaul and edge computing agreement with SpaceX in 2025, launching the "Anthos Space Edge" preview, routing AI inference tasks to the nearest low-Earth orbit satellite coverage area. SpaceX's orbital assets are being integrated into Google's cloud ecosystem's physical infrastructure, providing strategic endorsement for post-listing valuation.

Pre-listing Entry: Three Price Discovery Channels and Pricing Analysis

Currently, there are three channels providing pre-market exposure to SpaceX. Core anchor point: $526.7/share = $1.25 trillion (merger pricing), 2.374 billion total shares outstanding. The following analyzes the pricing, structure, and upside potential of each channel.

|------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | BITGET IPO PRIME·Tokenized·Recommended preSPAX $650 Implied valuation $1.54 trillion·Launched on April 21 Distance to IPO target low end +13.4% Distance to IPO target high end +29.7% Backed by Republic, referencing index performance after SpaceX goes public. $650 is the lowest entry price among all tradable channels, lower than Hiive private equity ($663) and PreStocks tokens ($709), and does not require accredited investor qualifications. The economic exposure directly tracks public market prices after SpaceX's listing. |

|-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | Real Equity·Qualified Investors Only Hiive $663 Implied valuation $1.57 trillion·100+ active orders Distance to IPO target low end +11.2% Distance to IPO target high end +27.1% Real equity transfer, the best liquidity private equity platform. 3-5% handling fee, lock-up period depends on holding structure. Price is $13 higher than preSPAX, but grants direct shareholder rights. Qualified investors only. |

|-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | Synthetic Assets·SOLANA Chain PreStocks $709 Implied valuation $1.68 trillion·ATH $884 (1/29) Distance to IPO target low end +3.9% Distance to IPO target high end +18.9% Market cap $4.7 million, daily trading $840,000, extremely poor liquidity. Pricing is already higher than preSPAX by $59, only 4% away from the IPO low end. It reached $884 on January 29, implying $2.10 trillion, then retraced to the current position. Prices do not reflect fundamentals but reflect small circle sentiment on the Solana chain. |

Pricing Conclusion: preSPAX at $650 is the only option among the three channels that simultaneously meets "lowest pricing" and "acceptable liquidity." Compared to Hiive: cheaper by $13 (-2%), no need for accredited investor qualifications. Compared to PreStocks: cheaper by $59 (-8.3%), with more upside potential of 9.5 percentage points, and more secure liquidity (Republic backing vs. Solana chain self-issued tokens). After the IPO, preSPAX's settlement will reference SpaceX's public market price, with a clear economic return path.

Scenario Analysis and Key Assumptions

|------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | ### Pessimistic Scenario $421---$527 $1.0T---$1.25T Starship continues to fail, xAI enterprise API does not reach $1.5 billion in 2026E, Musk's political risks affect government contract renewals, macro tightening leads to discounted IPO pricing. Valuation returns to SOTP fundamentals, with Starlink's $11.4 billion revenue still supporting a $1 trillion floor. Based on preSPAX at $650: downside of about -20% to -30%. |

|-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | ### Baseline Scenario (Main Scenario) $737---$780 $1.75T---$1.85T Starlink 2026E reaches $16-18 billion, Grok enterprise API revenue $1.5 billion, IPO successfully completed and triggers Nasdaq index inclusion, passive buying supports post-listing momentum. Based on preSPAX at $650: upside of about +13% to +20%, visible within 6 months. |

|---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | ### Optimistic Scenario $843---$950 $2.0T---$2.25T Starlink exceeds expectations reaching $20 billion, Starship completes full reuse milestone during roadshow, first commercial contract for ODC announced, retail sentiment combines with passive buying resonance. Based on preSPAX at $650: upside of about +30% to +46%. |

Main downside risks: ① Major accidents occur with Starship (highest probability impact); ② Deterioration of Musk's relationship with Trump affects government contracts; ③ Nasdaq index rule amendments face challenges at the congressional level; ④ Macro environment tightens sharply, leading to a closure of the overall IPO market. The probabilities of these risks occurring independently are relatively limited, but their impact is significant when they occur in combination.

This report is for internal research reference only and does not constitute investment advice. Tokenized products (preSPAX, PreStocks) do not confer shareholder rights, voting rights, or dividend rights, and economic returns are linked to reference indices, with settlement mechanisms relying on platform credit. Private equity (Hiive) is limited to accredited/verified investors, with handling fees of 3-5%, and lock-up periods determined by holding structures. SpaceX's S-1 is under confidential review, and IPO valuation, timing, and issuance structure may change. The TRL (Technology Readiness Level) rating is an independent judgment by researchers and is for reference only.