# 1. Selected Hot News

1. Middle East Situation: Saudi International Airports Under Continuous Attack, Energy Supply Risks Rise Again

King Khalid International Airport in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, was continuously attacked from October 10 to 11. The Houthi armed group in Yemen claimed responsibility for the attacks and expanded their actions to airports and energy-related facilities in eastern Saudi Arabia. The attacks have resulted in casualties and have led to flight cancellations and disruptions in airport operations. The United States has indicated it may support Saudi Arabia in taking military action against the Houthis, raising the risk of escalation in the Middle East situation.

Market Impact: The risks from this round of conflict are expanding from oil transportation routes to airports, refineries, and other critical infrastructure. If the attacks continue, it may increase regional energy transportation costs and the risk of supply disruptions, impacting global inflation expectations through oil prices. The aviation, tourism, and transportation sectors face cost pressures, while energy and defense-related assets may receive more attention. Key observations should focus on the actual damage to Saudi energy facilities and transportation conditions in the Red Sea and the Strait of Hormuz.

2. International Crude Oil: Rumors of a Russia-Ukraine Energy Ceasefire Push Oil Prices Down, Brent Falls to Around $103

U.S. President Trump stated that Russia and Ukraine might reach a ceasefire arrangement regarding energy infrastructure, leading the market to expect a potential easing of restrictions on Russian energy supplies. However, as of now, the arrangement has not been fully confirmed by both Russia and Ukraine. Following this news, Brent crude oil fell to about $103.35 per barrel during the Asian trading session on October 12, while WTI dropped to about $90.55 per barrel. Meanwhile, attacks on oil tankers in the Middle East and the assault on Saudi airports continue to increase supply uncertainty.

Market Impact: Current oil prices are influenced by two opposing factors: expectations of a Russia-Ukraine energy ceasefire easing supply tightness, while escalating conflicts in the Middle East increase transportation and energy facility risks. If the ceasefire arrangement is ultimately implemented, it may alleviate some pressure on refined oil supplies; however, if attacks in the Middle East continue to escalate, oil prices may still be supported by geopolitical risk premiums. Short-term focus should be on actual supply recovery rather than solely relying on diplomatic statements to gauge oil price trends.

3. U.S. Economy: This Week Faces Dual Tests of CPI and Bank Earnings Reports

The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) for September is scheduled to be released on October 14. The market expects that due to rising energy prices, the overall CPI may increase by about 0.6% month-on-month, while core inflation may remain relatively mild. The preliminary consumer confidence index from the University of Michigan for October has dropped to 46.3, with inflation expectations for the next year rising to 4.7%, indicating growing consumer concerns about the economic and price outlook. This week, major banks such as JPMorgan Chase, Citigroup, Wells Fargo, and Goldman Sachs will successively disclose their third-quarter earnings.

Market Impact: Inflation and corporate earnings will jointly determine whether U.S. stocks can continue their recent upward trend. If the CPI exceeds expectations, it may push U.S. Treasury yields back up and suppress overvalued tech stocks; if bank earnings reports show stable credit quality and growth in corporate financing and trading activities, it may improve market perceptions of economic resilience. Current attention should particularly focus on how high interest rates affect corporate debt financing, AI capital expenditures, and consumer loan demand.

# 2. Market Review

1. Commodity and Forex Performance

| Variety | Reference Price | Data Source | |-----------------|-------------------------|----------------------| | Spot Gold | About $4,209.39/ounce | October 12 Asian Session | | Spot Silver | About $60.77/ounce | October 9 U.S. Trading Session | | WTI Crude Oil | About $90.55/barrel | October 12 Asian Session, November Futures | | Brent Crude Oil | About $103.35/barrel | October 12 Asian Session, December Futures | | U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) | About 102.25 | October 9 U.S. Trading Session | | U.S. 10-Year Treasury Yield | About 5.26% | October 9 U.S. Market Close |

International crude oil fell in early trading on Monday but remains in the high price range of over $90 to $100 per barrel. The attacks in the Middle East and the expectations of a Russia-Ukraine energy ceasefire are counterbalancing, potentially increasing short-term volatility in oil prices. Gold rose about 0.4% in the Asian session, reflecting investors' demand for safe-haven assets amid geopolitical and economic uncertainties; however, higher U.S. Treasury yields will still limit the valuation space for non-yielding assets. Due to the U.S. bond market being closed on October 12, U.S. Treasury yields are based on the most recent complete trading day's reference values.

2. Cryptocurrency Performance

• BTC: About 83,849.77 USDT; corresponding BTC/USD reference price is about $83,887.55, up 1.08% in 24 hours.

• ETH: About 2,545.71 USDT; corresponding ETH/USD reference price is about $2,542.42, up 1.62% in 24 hours.

• Total Cryptocurrency Market Cap: About $2.813 trillion, down 2.58% in the past 24 hours.

BTC and ETH data are sourced from Bitget, updated at 09:26:26 and 09:17:21 Beijing time on October 12, respectively, with the 24-hour increase based on the corresponding USD reference. Total market cap data is from CoinGecko, as of 09:29:48 Beijing time. The coverage and timing of each data point differ, so the rise in BTC and ETH and the decline in total market cap should not be viewed as contradictory, nor does it represent a synchronous rise in other crypto assets.

BTC | Liquidation Zone Observation

This time, the CoinGlass BTC liquidation map did not meet the timeliness requirements and lacked a complete price range and liquidation intensity. Therefore, we do not provide the main short potential liquidation zones above the current price, the main long potential liquidation zones below, or distance calculations. BTC has recently recovered from around the $80,000 area to near $84,000, but a price rebound alone cannot confirm that concentrated short liquidations have occurred.

ETH | Liquidation Zone Observation

ETH has recently rebounded from adjustment lows to above $2,500, but similarly lacks verifiable recent liquidation intensity distribution. Currently, it is unreliable to compare potential liquidation pressures of shorts above and longs below, nor should ordinary technical support levels be considered liquidation zones.

Institutional Holding Cost | BTC

The latest verified official disclosure from Strategy shows that as of October 4, the company holds 848,000 BTC, with an overall average purchase cost of about $75,441. Based on the BTC/USD reference price of $83,887.55 at 09:26:26 Beijing time on October 12, the BTC price is approximately 11.20% higher than Strategy's average cost. This represents a reference premium of the BTC market price relative to its average purchase cost, not the overall investment return of the company. The comprehensive cost of the U.S. spot BTC ETF has not received a verifiable recent estimate, so it is not filled in.

Market Overview in One Sentence

BTC has risen to about $84,000, maintaining a reference premium of about 11% over Strategy's average purchase cost, with institutional cost buffer space recovering compared to earlier. However, the liquidation map data is insufficient to confirm the current major leverage risk positions. Future observations should focus on whether BTC can maintain its rebound and whether ETF fund flows can show sustained improvement.

3. Major U.S. Stock Index Performance

| Index | Closing on October 9 | Change | |---------------------------|----------------------|------------| | Dow Jones Industrial Average | 51,654.95 | +0.83% | | S&P 500 | 7,811.54 | +0.59% | | Nasdaq Composite | 27,366.17 | +0.64% |

On October 9, all three major U.S. stock indices rebounded collectively, with the Dow rising over 400 points, and both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq increasing by about 0.6%. For the week, the Dow rose about 0.9%, the S&P 500 increased by about 1.2%, and the Nasdaq gained about 0.6%, indicating resilience in the major indices.

However, there remains significant internal divergence in the market. News of SpaceX acquiring wireless spectrum led to a sharp decline in traditional telecom operators' stock prices, while communication tower companies rose against the trend. In the tech sector, Microsoft and Amazon performed well, while Apple and Nvidia faced pressure. The market is beginning to focus more on specific companies' earnings realizations rather than applying a uniform pricing approach to the entire tech sector.

4. Performance of the Seven Tech Giants

| Company | Stock Code | Closing Price (USD) | Change | |-------------|------------|---------------------|------------| | Nvidia | NVDA | 229.28 | -0.52% | | Apple | AAPL | 336.64 | -1.11% | | Microsoft | MSFT | 535.07 | +2.38% | | Alphabet | GOOGL | 351.66 | +0.97% | | Amazon | AMZN | 262.43 | +3.29% | | Meta | META | 718.67 | -0.31% | | Tesla | TSLA | 382.70 | +2.05% |

Among the seven giants, 4 rose and 3 fell. Amazon increased by 3.29%, Microsoft by 2.38%, and Tesla by 2.05%, becoming the main gainers; Apple fell by 1.11%, and Nvidia dropped by 0.52%. Microsoft's market value is nearing $4 trillion, with the market maintaining high growth expectations for its cloud computing and AI businesses, but future valuations will still depend on Azure growth, AI revenue, and capital expenditure returns.

5. Sector Movement Observation

Telecom Operators: SpaceX's Entry into the Wireless Spectrum Market Triggers Valuation Reevaluation. SpaceX plans to acquire nationwide 800MHz low-frequency spectrum through an approximately $8 billion deal to establish a more complete mobile communication capability for Starlink Mobile. T-Mobile fell about 13.3% on October 9, AT&T dropped about 9.8%, and Verizon declined about 8.8%. Communication tower companies saw significant increases, indicating that the market believes new networks may still require ground infrastructure.

Financial Sector: Large Bank Earnings Will Test Profit Resilience in a High-Interest Rate Environment. This week, companies such as JPMorgan Chase, Citigroup, Wells Fargo, and Goldman Sachs will release earnings reports, with the market focusing on net interest income, investment banking, trading income, and loan loss provisions. High interest rates may widen the interest margins for some banks but could also suppress loan demand and increase repayment pressure on borrowers.

Semiconductors and AI: Industry Focus Shifts to Revenue Realization. Last week, AI-related stocks were influenced by OpenAI's revenue expectations and the financing costs of large computing projects, leading to adjustments in some semiconductor companies. This week, operational data and earnings reports from ASML and TSMC will become important windows for observing chip demand, capital expenditures, and profit realization.

# 3. In-Depth Analysis of Key U.S. Stocks

1. T-Mobile (TMUS): SpaceX's Spectrum Acquisition Impacts Traditional Operators' Competitive Barriers

Event Overview: T-Mobile fell about 13.3% on October 9. SpaceX plans to expand Starlink Mobile's network coverage in the U.S. by acquiring 800MHz wireless spectrum and improving indoor communication services. The related transaction still requires regulatory approval.

Market Interpretation: The competitive barriers of traditional mobile operators are mainly built on spectrum, ground stations, network coverage, and user scale. SpaceX, by combining satellites and low-frequency wireless spectrum, may form a new network competition model in the long term. However, acquiring spectrum does not mean it can immediately replace traditional operators, as it still needs to invest in network construction, terminal adaptation, and commercial operations.

Investment Insight: Future observations should focus on FCC approvals, SpaceX's actual service coverage, and whether T-Mobile's user churn rate and revenue per user are affected. If new technology cannot quickly translate into stable commercial services, short-term market concerns may outweigh real operational impacts; conversely, if SpaceX can achieve scaled operations, the competitive landscape of the traditional communication industry may undergo long-term changes.

2. Apple (AAPL): Supply Chain Production Cuts Raise iPhone Demand Concerns

Event Overview: Apple closed at $336.64 on October 9, down 1.11%. Earlier reports from the supply chain indicated that Apple requested some suppliers to reduce orders for iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max related components, possibly due to consumer demand, rising storage chip prices, and terminal product pricing. The scale of the related order adjustments has not been officially confirmed by Apple.

Market Interpretation: The demand for storage chips in AI data centers continues to grow, which may affect the smartphone market through supply chain costs. Apple's high-end products need to maintain pricing power, sales volume, and profit margins simultaneously. If component costs rise while terminal demand is insufficient, it may increase profit pressure. However, changes in supply chain orders may also relate to inventory management and product release timing, and cannot be directly equated with a decline in final sales.

Investment Insight: Future focus should be on Apple's quarterly iPhone revenue, product gross margins, and subsequent supply chain orders. If high-end model sales remain weak, it may impact market expectations for Apple's hardware revenue and profit growth; conversely, if it is merely a short-term inventory adjustment, its long-term impact may be limited.

3. Humana (HUM): Health Insurance Rating Improvement, Market Reassesses Profit Outlook

Event Overview: Humana rose about 11.6% on October 9. The latest star rating data for U.S. Medicare Advantage shows that approximately 95% of the company's relevant members participate in four-star and above plans, a significant improvement from previous ratings.

Market Interpretation: The star ratings for Medicare Advantage directly affect insurance companies' quality bonuses and business competitiveness. An increase in ratings may lead to higher reward income in the future and improve the company's profit outlook. However, an improved rating does not directly imply a decrease in medical payment costs, as the company still faces the impact of actual medical expenses and changes in member structure.

Investment Insight: Future attention should be paid to the bonuses corresponding to the ratings, medical payment rates, and the number of new members. For health insurance companies, regulatory ratings can improve revenue expectations, but the ultimate investment value still depends on sustained profit and cash flow growth.

### Market and Project Dynamics

1. Rising Energy Security Risks in Saudi Arabia: After consecutive attacks on Riyadh International Airport, eastern Saudi airports and energy facilities have also become targets. Executives from several international energy companies have canceled their trips to Riyadh for energy conferences, indicating that security risks have begun to affect regional business activities.

2. New Progress in Tokenization of U.S. Stocks: Securitize launched a tokenized U.S. stock product based on Solana on October 8, initially covering 12 U.S. stocks including Apple, Microsoft, and Nvidia, emphasizing real underlying securities support and corresponding economic rights. This business has been launched, but plans for future integration with trading facilities like the NYSE still need to be distinguished.

3. Traditional Finance Exploring On-Chain Trading: OKXICE plans to develop a tokenized U.S. securities platform that supports round-the-clock trading and has advanced related regulatory applications. As more institutions enter, future competition may shift towards legitimate securities rights, liquidity, custody, and settlement efficiency, rather than just the number of on-chain tokens.

4. Corporate BTC Holdings: The latest verified official ledger from Strategy shows a holding of 848,000 BTC, with an average purchase cost of about $75,441. At this stage, rumors of new purchases on October 12 that have not yet been verified or completed disclosures should not be regarded as completed transactions.

5. Crypto Institutional Fund Flows: The completed summary shows a net outflow of $244.1 million from U.S. spot BTC ETFs and a net outflow of $72.5 million from spot ETH ETFs on October 8. Due to some subsequent data not being fully verified, this report does not consider unconfirmed fund flow numbers from October 9 as facts, nor does it use them to judge whether institutional funds have been continuously flowing back.

### Today's Market Calendar

Date: October 12, 2026, Beijing Time. The U.S. stock market is trading normally, while the U.S. Treasury spot market is closed for Columbus Day/Indigenous Peoples' Day. The following attention levels are assessed by the editor.
Beijing Time
Country/Region
Event
Market Attention Level

|--------------|----|-------------------------|-------| | October 12 | U.S. | Columbus Day/Indigenous Peoples' Day, U.S. stocks trading normally, bond market closed | ★★★ | | October 13 | U.S. | JPMorgan, Citigroup, Wells Fargo, Goldman Sachs Q3 earnings reports | ★★★★★ | | October 14 | U.S. | Bank of America and other large financial institutions Q3 earnings reports | ★★★★★ | | October 14 20:30 | U.S. | September Consumer Price Index (CPI) | ★★★★★ | | October 15 20:30 | U.S. | September Producer Price Index (PPI) and retail sales data | ★★★★★ |

Key Event Outlook: The most important variables for the market this week are the CPI and bank earnings reports. Persistently high oil prices may raise overall inflation levels, while banking operational data will test whether businesses and households can continue to bear high interest rates. Meanwhile, attacks on Saudi airports and transportation risks in the Middle East may lead to a new round of fluctuations in energy prices before the data is released. For technology stocks, the market will also assess whether AI demand continues to translate into real revenue through semiconductor industry operational data.

Institutional View: Baird investment strategy analyst Ross Mayfield pointed out on October 9 that conflicting news related to the Middle East makes it difficult for investors to establish a clear directional judgment based on a single geopolitical statement. On the other hand, Infinox analyst Thadeu Dos Santos believes that a drop in oil prices helps alleviate inflation and bond yield pressures, thereby supporting gold, but the high interest rate environment remains the main constraint facing precious metals.

Disclaimer: This daily report is for market information reference only and does not constitute investment advice. Market prices are based on the respective indicated time points. No speculative filling is made when verifiable data for clearing areas and ETF comprehensive costs is not obtained.