Proton Capital

The current market aligns more with the typical characteristics of the later stage of a bear market, where the clearing has significantly progressed, costs are gradually resetting, and the chips are transitioning from redistribution to locking in, but the bottom has not yet been definitively confirmed; based on the historical performance of the cost range, if prices further decline, the potential bottom range may be between $45,000 and $53,000, and the market is expected to complete the bottom formation this summer.

The cryptocurrency market is currently in the process of finding a bottom. On a macro level, the Federal Reserve's "higher for longer" interest rate environment and the uncertainty surrounding its personnel changes will continue to suppress BTC prices. The core narrative of Bitcoin will shift from institutional adoption to testing institutional faith.

AI remains the core direction of global capital expenditure, but the return logic is shifting from "computing power expansion" to "application and cash flow realization."

In the fourth quarter of 2025, the cryptocurrency market underwent a systemic adjustment driven by liquidity contraction and institutional de-risking, entering a new phase characterized by oscillatory repair in December. We believe that this round of repair is not a trend reversal, but rather a process of market repricing around a new value center against the backdrop of marginal improvement in macro liquidity that has not yet entered an expansion cycle.

Overall, the operation of the cryptocurrency market is undergoing a historic shift from "internal drivers" to "external drivers." In the new cycle paradigm, understanding global liquidity and institutional behavior will become key to understanding the cryptocurrency market.

Overall, the current market is in the consolidation phase of the late bull market, with sentiment leaning towards pessimism but liquidity has not yet dried up. If macro liquidity improves, the crypto market may continue its upward cycle; if liquidity remains constrained, it may accelerate the entry into the early bear market.

The short-term market needs to cope with macro uncertainty and volatility, but the long-term allocation logic has not changed. Crypto assets are gradually evolving from high-volatility speculative targets to a strategic allocation category that can be considered within the global asset allocation framework. Investors should gradually establish long-term positions that match their risk preferences while controlling risks.

Considering the overall market structure, capital flows, on-chain data, and policy environment, our judgment is very clear: Ethereum is gradually replacing Bitcoin as the core asset in the second half of the bull market.