Wall Street Journal

Wall Street generally expects that the new jobs added in September will drop to 90,000, with the unemployment rate remaining at 4.1%. The strong data from August was mainly boosted by unusual seasonal factors, and its revision will directly determine the strength of the September data. As Federal Reserve officials' recent statements have caused the probability of an interest rate hike in October to plummet to 25%, the market focus has shifted to long-term interest rates. Currently, systemic funds hold about $390 billion in global bond shorts, and if the employment data unexpectedly cools, it will trigger severe market turbulence.

According to reports, Anthropic is set to launch its roadshow as early as November, aiming to complete its public listing before the Thanksgiving holiday in the United States on November 26. It will hold a Pre-IPO Investor Day on October 14 with potential investors and has sent invitations to a group of institutional investors; some potential investors believe the company's reasonable valuation could reach between $1.8 trillion and $2 trillion.

The global bond market storm continues to escalate, and TS Lombard Chief Economist Steven Blitz has issued a shocking warning: the Federal Reserve is repeating its "original sin" by prematurely easing monetary policy, which will drive the yield on 10-year U.S. Treasuries to reach 8% in the coming years. While Wall Street is still debating whether 6% is a reality, Blitz has asserted that 5.75% is merely a temporary plateau—expansive fiscal policy combined with loose monetary policy will raise the inflation and yield center in each cycle, and the era of "buying the dip" may come to an end.

Micron's revenue for the fourth fiscal quarter was $54.229 billion, a year-on-year increase of 379% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 31%, exceeding market expectations of $51.49 billion. The median revenue forecast for the first quarter of fiscal year 2027 is $61.5 billion, higher than the market expectation of $57.02 billion; the gross margin is approximately 86.25%, which is also lower than the market expectation of 86.7%. The CFO stated that the pace of price increases will moderate. The CEO indicated that demand has further strengthened since the last earnings report and expects supply and demand conditions in 2027 and 2028 to be significantly tighter than in 2026.

After the lower-than-expected U.S. August PCE data was released, Goldman Sachs pushed back its expectation for the Federal Reserve's second interest rate hike from October to December, stating that it does not rule out the possibility that the Federal Reserve ultimately believes no further rate hikes are necessary. "The Wall Street Journal" Timiraos pointed out that the PCE did not change the previously known trend of rising inflation. Currently, the market is pricing in a 39% probability of an interest rate hike in October, down from 45% before the PCE was released; the probability for a December hike is 90%. The yield on the 2-year U.S. Treasury bond fell slightly after the PCE release and then rebounded, while the 10-year yield continued to rise.

The IPO prospectus submitted by Anthropic reveals that expenditures on computing power and infrastructure will reach $7.33 billion in 2025, doubling compared to 2024, accounting for more than half of the total operating expenses of $12.65 billion. Plans to continue investing over $500 billion in the future are in place. The risk section of the prospectus spans 80 pages and clearly warns that its AI models may pose "catastrophic or even existential threats," and may even resist shutdowns or manipulate information.

NVIDIA announced an additional $150 billion stock buyback plan, setting a new record for the largest buyback in U.S. corporate history, surpassing Apple's previous record of $110 billion. CEO Jensen Huang stated that this move demonstrates confidence in the long-term opportunities of AI. Boosted by this news, NVIDIA's stock price rose by as much as 1.3% in pre-market trading on Monday, after previously falling nearly 1%.

OpenAI's resident AI assistant "o," powered by the GPT-6 Astra variant "Aeon," focuses on long-task scenarios. It is expected that on Tuesday (September 29), Dev Day will simultaneously launch the ChatGPT Pro Max ultra-fast subscription at a monthly fee of $500, along with an AI hardware device shaped like a donut. Analysts believe that with a dual approach of software and hardware, it will fully target strong competitors like Meta and Grok.

Muse launched two weeks ago and has already reached millions of users, with Mark Zuckerberg stating, "It's a home run right out of the gate." This personal AI Agent is about to be fully integrated with Ray-Ban smart glasses, betting on the convergence of the metaverse, smart glasses, and large models. In addition, he rarely admitted that the failure of Llama 4 was "the most terrifying moment" and revealed that Meta is building a 5-gigawatt computing cluster.

Goldman Sachs believes that the market has overvalued the risks of stagflation and high yields. The effects of tariffs are weakening, energy may face deflation, and the cost reduction from AI consumerization will drive inflation down. Although growth is slowing, core profits remain strong, and the central bank's hawkish space is limited. In the "Goldilocks" scenario, AI FOMO is reignited, and there is no need to wait for the midterm elections; the "Goldilocks" market may ignite the U.S. stock market's year-end rally ahead of schedule.