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first_img Galaxy: The probability of the CLARITY Act passing has dropped to 10%, SEC and CFTC accelerate independent actions

Galaxy Research analyst Alex Thorn pointed out that as the likelihood of the CLARITY Act passing in 2026 significantly decreases, the U.S. SEC and CFTC are intensifying independent cryptocurrency regulatory actions. The bill previously gained bipartisan support in the Senate Banking Committee but has stalled due to unresolved ethical rules for officials regarding cryptocurrency, pressure from community banks leading to some Republican positions softening, and disputes over developer protection clauses. The Senate Majority Leader failed to push for a vote before the August recess, and the September session is only about two to three weeks long, leading Galaxy to lower the probability to 10%.On the SEC side, the originally planned "Reg Crypto" exemption (which provides a new path for primary issuance of crypto assets) and "Innovation Exemption" (which allows tokenized securities to trade in DeFi secondary markets) have been postponed multiple times. It is reported that the agency had retreated due to opposition from the traditional securities industry, but may restart due to the bleak outlook of the bill, with text expected to be released in the coming weeks to months. These measures are likely to be time-limited sandboxes that will face litigation and require years to refine. The CFTC is actively advocating for jurisdiction over prediction market contracts, responding to the New York Attorney General's attempt to issue an emergency order to ban Kalshi event contracts nationwide, continuing the tug-of-war over federal and state jurisdiction regarding prediction markets.Thorn believes that while the bill covers a comprehensive framework including registration licensing, compliance monitoring, and consumer protection, it is currently more dominated by political factors. SEC Commissioner Hester Peirce's planned departure in November also adds urgency to the advancement of the rules. The related actions aim to fill the legislative vacuum but may ultimately undergo a lengthy judicial and rule-making process.

Stripe is in talks to acquire PayPal, with a transaction valuation potentially reaching $53 billion

According to Techcrunch, acquisition negotiations between payment giant PayPal and Stripe, along with private equity firm Advent Global Opportunities, are heating up, and a deal may be reached in the coming weeks.In July, Stripe and Advent proposed to acquire PayPal for $60.50 per share, with a total transaction valuation of approximately $53 billion, but PayPal did not accept the offer at that time. However, insiders revealed that the negotiations have not been interrupted and are still ongoing.Neither PayPal nor Stripe has confirmed the related news. PayPal declined to comment, while Stripe stated that it would not respond to market rumors or speculation.This potential sale comes as PayPal seeks to reverse its growth challenges. After taking office in March this year, PayPal CEO Enrique Lores launched a restructuring plan that splits the business into three main areas: payment checkout and PayPal business, consumer financial services (including Venmo), and payment services and cryptocurrency business.Lores previously stated that PayPal would return to its identity as a technology company and strengthen its core payment capabilities. At the same time, the company plans to improve efficiency by cutting costs, with layoffs expected to reach 20% over the next two to three years.Founded in 1998, PayPal's founding team includes well-known Silicon Valley figures such as Peter Thiel, Elon Musk, and Max Levchin. The company experienced rapid growth during the e-commerce boom during the pandemic but has faced challenges such as slowing growth and pressure on its stock price in recent years. If the deal is finalized, it will become one of the largest acquisitions in the fintech industry in recent years.

Gray Research Director: ETH and SOL may face supply contraction, and the reduction of inflation mechanisms will strengthen token scarcity

Grayscale Research Director Zach Pandl stated that the two major blockchain networks, Ethereum (ETH) and Solana (SOL), are considering adjusting their token economic models to enhance asset scarcity by reducing future token supply growth through lowering annual inflation rates. As important native assets supporting stablecoins and tokenized asset ecosystems, the prices of ETH and SOL are primarily determined by supply and demand dynamics. If the relevant code upgrade proposals are approved, under unchanged conditions, lower supply growth may provide support for token prices.According to Grayscale's analysis, if the relevant adjustments are implemented, the supply inflation rates of BTC, ETH, and SOL will continue to decline over the next five years. By the end of 2031, the annual inflation rates for Bitcoin and Ethereum are expected to be around 0.4%, and Solana around 1.1%, which is lower than gold's annual supply growth rate of about 1.8% and the U.S. CPI inflation level of about 3.3%. Currently, these token economic adjustments are still in the community discussion phase. Among them, the Solana-related proposal has gained broader support and has a higher likelihood of implementation; the Ethereum proposal still requires further discussion.If the adjustments are implemented, staking users may face reduced token rewards, as part of the staking income comes from the issuance of new tokens. However, due to the decline in the growth rate of circulating supply, the scarcity value of the tokens may increase, potentially providing price support. For ETH and SOL holders who do not participate in staking, they may benefit directly; the final returns for stakers will depend on the balance between the decrease in rewards and the increase in prices. Zach Pandl concluded that ETH and SOL are becoming important digital commodities supporting stablecoins and the tokenization of real assets, and the economic model adjustments aimed at reducing inflation may further strengthen their scarcity attributes.

hot_img Binance launches Kuaishou, Meituan, SK Hynix double long, Samsung double long TradFi perpetual contracts

On August 11, the Binance contract platform launched four U-based perpetual contract trading pairs, including Kuaishou (KUAISHOUUSDT), Meituan (MEITUANUSDT), as well as the Southern Eastern SK Hynix Daily Leverage (2X) product (CSOPSKHYNIX2LUSDT) and the Southern Eastern Samsung Electronics Daily Leverage (2X) product (CSOPSAMSUNG2LUSDT). The Kuaishou and Meituan contracts support a maximum leverage of 20 times, while the two Korean semiconductor ETF products support a maximum leverage of 10 times, with a funding rate cap of ±2%, settled every eight hours, supporting a multi-asset model.Among them, CSOPSKHYNIX2LUSDT tracks the Southern Eastern SK Hynix Daily Leverage (2X) product listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange (code 7709), and CSOPSAMSUNG2LUSDT tracks the Southern Eastern Samsung Electronics Daily Leverage (2X) product (code 7747), corresponding to the two major storage chip giants SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics with double long exposure. This is Binance's further expansion in the field of traditional asset perpetual contracts, bringing Hong Kong stocks and Korean tech stock leverage products into the crypto derivatives market. Binance reminds users that digital asset prices are highly volatile, and contract trading carries high risks; investors must bear the related risks themselves.

hot_img Reuters: Microsoft has closed at least 15 branches in China over the past five years, with AI overseas business becoming a key factor for retention

According to a report by Reuters, influenced by multiple factors such as the tense Sino-U.S. relations, China's push for domestic software alternatives, and U.S. export controls, Microsoft has closed at least 15 branches and joint ventures in China over the past five years, executing a strategic contraction. In 2023, the company internally considered exiting the Chinese market, as some executives believed that "the geopolitical risks outweighed the limited economic returns," but ultimately did not proceed with the exit. Microsoft disclosed in 2024 that its business in China accounted for only about 1.5% of its global revenue.The report states that Microsoft's final decision to remain in China was primarily due to the establishment of a profitable path—providing Azure cloud and AI services to Chinese companies like ByteDance and Shein, helping them operate compliantly in overseas markets. Additionally, the company believes that retaining its business in China remains strategically significant for acquiring engineering talent. However, analysts question the sustainability of this AI business model: the service relies on third-party models like OpenAI, and Chinese companies are increasingly adopting domestic alternatives like Kimi, which offer comparable performance at lower costs.Microsoft's research and development presence in China is also contracting. Its predecessor, Microsoft Research Asia, has successively established new labs in Vancouver, Singapore, and Tokyo. In 2024, the company offered job opportunities to 1,000 top engineers to relocate to the U.S. and three other countries, but only about one-third accepted, with most senior engineers moving to domestic universities and tech companies. A Microsoft spokesperson responded that the company will continue to commit to the Chinese market but did not comment on specific decision details. ByteDance and Shein did not respond to related inquiries.
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