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adjustment

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CryptoQuant analyst says the Bitcoin adjustment may not be over yet

On-chain data analysis platform CryptoQuant certified analyst CryptoZeno stated that the current market structure of Bitcoin shows that the cycle heat is cooling down, but there are no extreme signals commonly seen near significant historical turning points. The 30-day moving average of the Bitcoin Cycle Extremum Index has dropped to 15.8%, which is in the observation or mild pressure range.Currently, the BTC price has retraced about 46% from its previous historical high, but the index remains far below the levels that represent active or extreme phases. The Cycle Extremum Oscillation Indicator is also showing cautious signals, with its 30-day moving average close to the historical range bottom and significantly below the 1.0 threshold. In previous active market phases in early 2021 and during multiple periods from 2024 to 2025, this indicator had significantly increased, but no similar changes have been observed so far. CryptoZeno indicated that BTC is currently closer to an adjustment and low activity phase rather than a confirmed cycle bottom, and the low indicator readings do not mean that selling pressure has been exhausted. There may still be continued consolidation or even a new round of declines, and attention should be paid to whether the Cycle Extremum Index can continue to rise back to the active phase, as well as whether the oscillation indicator can recover simultaneously.

first_img Morgan Stanley: The adjustment of chip stocks has entered its final stage, with a year-end target of 8000 points for the S&P 500

Morgan Stanley's Chief Equity Strategist Mike Wilson stated that despite the cooling enthusiasm for artificial intelligence trading and recent pressure on U.S. stocks, he maintains his forecast for the S&P 500 index to close at 8000 points by the end of the year. Morgan Stanley has set a tactical downside target for the S&P 500 at 7100 to 7200 points, slightly below the 200-day moving average, while the basic year-end target remains at 8000 points. Wilson noted that several upcoming clearing events, including the midterm elections, should mark the end of the current stock market adjustment.Wilson is relatively cautious about the semiconductor sector, believing that support levels may be significantly lower than current levels, but selling pressure may ease next month. The strategy team stated that as the market questions the timing and scale of revenue realization related to artificial intelligence, the semiconductor and other capital expenditure beneficiary sectors have become the epicenter of financing concerns; there are new doubts about the cost of capital for some participants and whether the credit market can provide sufficient funds to support related expenditures, as governments and non-AI-related capital expenditures are also competing for funds. The team indicated that given the possibility of more financing plans in the future, it is normal for the market to focus on the supply side, but this concern will persist until financing is completed.The five-year credit default swaps of the highly leveraged new cloud service provider CoreWeave closed above 1100 basis points last week, implying a default probability of about 50% on its debt within five years. Wilson's team believes that the adjustment in the semiconductor sector has entered its final stage, expecting this round of adjustment to end by mid-November; however, based on technical analysis and comparisons with the once-hot silver market, the sector may decline another 10% to 15% from current levels, with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index potentially dipping to around 9500 points. Last week, the Nasdaq Composite Index fell a cumulative 0.7%, with a total decline of over 5% in the past two weeks; on Monday, Anthropic's public IPO prospectus boosted the AI sector, leading chip stocks to rise, and the Nasdaq Composite Index increased by 0.82%, closing at 26169.38 points.
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