analysis

Venus Protocol releases updates on the abnormal activity in the THE liquidity pool. In addition to previously suspending THE borrowing and withdrawals, the collateral factors (CF) for 7 markets have now been reduced to 0 as a precautionary measure against markets where a single user holds an excessively high proportion of collateral. The 7 markets are BCH, LTC, UNI, AAVE, FIL, TWT, and lisUSD, while all other markets remain unaffected and continue to operate normally.The preliminary assessment of the attack method indicates that the attacker began accumulating THE tokens slowly through normal deposit processes starting in June 2025, ultimately holding 84% of the cap (approximately 12.2 million THE). Yesterday, the hacker directly transferred THE tokens into the protocol contract, instantly increasing the supply and creating a massive amount of collateral. They then engaged in recursive price manipulation, taking advantage of the extremely low on-chain liquidity of THE combined with the TWAP oracle delay. The hacker initiated a loop: depositing THE, borrowing other assets, using the borrowed assets to buy more THE on-chain, and waiting for the TWAP oracle to update and drive up the price. Venus stated that it is committed to transparency and will release a complete report after the investigation concludes.

According to on-chain analyst Yu Jin's monitoring, an address that received 7,400 ETH from Tornado (hacker?) dominated tonight's liquidation event of CAKE and THE collateral, resulting in Venus incurring a liquidation deficit of about $2.15 million (1.18 million CAKE + 1.84 million THE), while the hacker obtained approximately $5.07 million in funds from Venus (2,172 BNB + 1.516 million CAKE + 20 BTC):The address first received 7,400 ETH from Tornado through the address 0x7a7...234, then deposited it into Aave to borrow 9.92 million U (including USDT, DAI, USDC) and transferred it to multiple wallets to purchase THE.Around 8 PM tonight, he likely pumped the price of THE in a CEX (it is presumed he had previously deployed long positions). Then, through two wallets, he deposited 36.1 million THE into Venus, borrowing assets like BTC, BNB, CAKE, etc.Forty minutes later, the price of THE plummeted (most likely due to his closing of long positions and opening of shorts), and his collateral on Venus was liquidated, further pushing down the price of THE. Ultimately, the collateral from these two wallets was completely liquidated, but there remained about $2.15 million (1.18 million CAKE + 1.84 million THE) in loans that had not been repaid, resulting in a deficit for Venus.Overall, he borrowed 9.92 million U to create chaos, but the assets borrowed from Venus were only worth $5.07 million. While it may not seem profitable on-chain, it is speculated that he aimed to dominate the decline of THE through on-chain liquidation, thus making a profit on his positions in the CEX.

Aave released an analysis of the Swap event: a user executed a token exchange operation through the CoW Swap router integrated into the Aave interface. The user attempted to exchange 50,432,688 aEthUSDT (worth approximately $5,043,270) for aEthAAVE. Due to the user's order being exceptionally large in a market with insufficient liquidity, the quotes from CoW Swap were extremely poor, and the user confirmed acceptance of the quote.It should be noted that the Aave protocol itself was never at risk, as this exchange occurred outside the protocol, through the aforementioned third-party Swap protocol. Currently, the relevant user has not contacted the Aave team. The key issue in this event was insufficient market liquidity, rather than slippage.Insufficient liquidity refers to the inability of the market to provide enough assets at a specific price to meet large orders, resulting in severe price deviations. The user's order was far larger than the available market liquidity, and the CoW Swap quote was 99.9% lower than the expected market clearing price; the adverse outcome stemmed from the user's confirmation of the quote, rather than price changes during execution.The root cause of this event was the routing of large trades in a market with insufficient liquidity, leading to extreme price shocks. The user executed the trade after confirming a clear warning on the interface. To prevent similar events, Aave Shield will be introduced in the Swap widget: it will default to blocking exchanges with price shocks exceeding 25%, and users will need to manually disable this feature to execute high-risk trades. The transaction incurred approximately $110,368 in fees, which will be refunded after user verification.

According to Cointelegraph, Andrei Grachev, managing partner of crypto market maker DWF Labs, analyzed that the "Altseason" driven by the overall rise of the crypto market is becoming a thing of the past. The surge in the number of tokens in the market, the limited scale of participants, and the absorption of liquidity by crypto ETFs are changing the market structure. Currently, institutional funds are more inclined to allocate to Bitcoin, Ethereum, and tokenized real-world assets (RWA), further diverting attention and funds away from altcoins. In the future, the market will see shorter narrative cycles and more intense sector rotations, with a large number of mid- to long-tail tokens resembling high-risk investments or "casino-like" assets, struggling to survive solely on speculation.Data shows that over the past 13 months, the market capitalization of altcoins has cumulatively flowed out more than $209 billion, and currently about 38% of altcoin prices are close to historical lows.

According to Cointlegraph, Santiment's on-chain data shows that wallets holding 10-10,000 BTC control 68.17% of the total Bitcoin supply (up from 68.07% seven days ago), indicating a recent accumulation rebound, which is seen as a "positive reversal" and a bullish signal.A week ago, whales sold about 66% of their holdings when the price broke above $74,000. Small wallets (0.01 BTC) continue to accumulate, especially buying when the price falls below $70,000. Santiment warns that the combination of "retail buying + whale selling" has historically often indicated that the correction is not yet over.

According to Jinshi reports, the financial blog Zero Hedge pointed out that the panic index VIX is currently only one-third of the level on the United States' "Liberation Day" (April 2, 2025), supported by the capital expenditure expectations of the "seven giants" in the U.S. stock market, while overall market volatility is comparable to that during the crash in April 2025.

According to crypto analyst Ragnar's post on the X platform, Strategy perpetual preferred stock STRC set a record of $745 million in single-day trading volume this week. If estimated at about a 48% liquidity rate (including off-market trading hours), the STRC income-generating tool alone could correspond to a potential purchasing scale of about 5,000 bitcoins on that day. Further calculations indicate that the related funds for STRC this week may correspond to about 13,000 bitcoins.If we also consider the financing ratio of STRC to Strategy common stock at about 1:2, the potential corresponding bitcoin purchasing scale this week could reach about 39,000 bitcoins. This scale is equivalent to a one-time increase in the level of a large bitcoin holding company. However, analysts remind that the above data is based on market estimates, and the actual purchasing scale still needs to be confirmed by company disclosures. Additionally, some analysts point out that the current structure of the crypto market has not fully shifted to a bull market, with the 50-day correlation between bitcoin and the Nasdaq 100 index still as high as 84%, meaning that if the stock market experiences a pullback, bitcoin may also face pressure.

Bitcoin continues to strengthen under macro pressure, with prices rising about 2% and breaking through $72,000, outperforming the U.S. stock market. Meanwhile, Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 index futures fell during the Asian trading session, while the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) broke above 100. This trend typically puts pressure on risk assets like cryptocurrencies, but the crypto market overall still maintained an upward trajectory that day.In the derivatives market, the open interest (OI) in the crypto industry's futures increased by 5% to $10.76 billion in the past 24 hours, indicating continued inflow of funds. Among them, Bitcoin's OI rose to 687,200 BTC, the highest since February 25; Ethereum's OI climbed to 13.72 million ETH. Additionally, the open interest for tokens like XRP, SOL, ADA, and SUI also saw significant increases. Furthermore, Bitcoin's 30-day annualized implied volatility (BVIV) dropped to 55%, marking a two-week low, indicating a decrease in market volatility and providing conditions for further increases in spot prices. Meanwhile, the ongoing escalation of the Iran conflict keeps oil prices around $100 per barrel, but Bitcoin remains relatively stable amid geopolitical and macro uncertainties.

Under the macro pressures of a strong dollar, rising oil prices, and climbing U.S. Treasury yields, Bitcoin remains resilient, with prices staying above $71,000. Data shows that the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the strength of the dollar, has re-established itself above 100, while the yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury bond has risen above 4.2%. At the same time, Brent and WTI crude oil prices are nearing $100 per barrel, intensifying market concerns about inflation and rising interest rates. However, since the escalation of the Middle East conflict on March 1, Bitcoin has remained one of the best-performing macro assets.In terms of crypto-related stocks, Bitcoin-holding company Strategy (MSTR) rose about 1% in pre-market trading, having raised funds this week through the issuance of perpetual preferred securities to increase its holdings by approximately 11,000 BTC. Cryptocurrency exchange Coinbase (COIN) increased by about 2%, while some Bitcoin mining companies transitioning to AI, such as IREN and Cipher Digital, saw slight declines.

A macro model combining the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield and the Chinese 10-year Treasury yield (US10Y × CN10Y) has recently shown an "extremely accurate" bullish crossover signal, which may provide guidance for the next round of Bitcoin's rise. Historical data indicates that this indicator has issued similar signals before bull markets in 2013, 2017, 2020-2021, and 2023, corresponding to Bitcoin price increases of approximately 8700%, 1900%, 600%, and over 350%, respectively.In addition, on-chain data also shows that whale addresses (wallets holding 1000-10000 BTC) have re-entered an accumulation phase during the recent price pullback, similar to behaviors observed near previous market bottoms. Analysis suggests that if Bitcoin stabilizes and rebounds near the 200-week moving average, the price may test $100,000 around August. However, if it fails to break through the key resistance level of $78,000, there remains a risk of forming a "bull trap."

On-chain analysis models show that the current selling pressure on the Bitcoin network has dropped to a cyclical low, indicating that the market is in a clear accumulation phase. The Sell-side Risk Ratio last triggered a "distribution signal" in December 2024, when the Bitcoin price was around $107,000, and this signal has not appeared since. Data shows that the current level of selling pressure has fallen to about one-sixth of the cyclical average, with related indicators even reflecting levels seen during the 2022-2023 bear market (when BTC prices were around $16,000 to $20,000).The model divides this cycle into two phases: the "strong distribution phase" from November to December 2024, with prices in the range of $64,000 to $107,000; and the current "accumulation phase" that has re-entered. The Sell-side Risk Ratio is used to measure the profit-taking activity of market participants relative to the overall network cost basis. When the indicator exceeds the adaptive upper threshold, it triggers a distribution signal, indicating that sellers dominate the market; when the indicator falls below the lower threshold, it triggers an accumulation signal, meaning selling pressure is extremely low. Data shows that the distribution signal in this cycle lasted a total of 37 days, covering the major range of BTC rising from $64,000 to $107,000.Since the signal closed on December 17, 2024, the market has not seen another distribution signal for about 449 consecutive days. Meanwhile, the 180-day rolling average of the Sell-side Risk Ratio has decreased from 3210 to 1913 over the past 60 days, a drop of 1297 points, and continues to decline at a rate of about 20 points per day. Historically, the range of 1500 to 2000 typically corresponds to selling pressure levels during 2019 (BTC around $3,000 to $6,000) and the mid-point of the 2022-2023 bear market (BTC around $16,000 to $20,000), but the current BTC price remains in the range of about $67,000 to $72,000, showing a clear structural divergence.Analysis indicates that this means early low-price holders have completed large-scale profit-taking in the $64,000 to $107,000 range, while those who did not sell in that range are currently choosing to hold. The model suggests that a new distribution signal may only be triggered when the Bitcoin price stabilizes above $100,000 to $110,000, accompanied by large-scale profit-taking. Overall, on-chain indicators show that the distribution phase of this cycle has ended, and the market has re-entered an accumulation state. The current overall judgment of the model on the market is "neutral to accumulation," but without new price catalysts, the market may face a prolonged period of consolidation.

Currently, global market sentiment has明显 weakened, with the Iran war and soaring oil prices putting pressure on Asian and European stock markets. The S&P 500 index and the Nasdaq index have also retreated, while the dollar index has strengthened.Meanwhile, Bitcoin's price has recently stabilized around $70,000. Bitcoin had previously maintained a wide fluctuation range above $100,000 for an extended period, before quickly falling into bear market territory. A similar technical structure has recently appeared in the SPDR Financial Select Sector ETF (XLF), the Indian Nifty index, and S&P 500 futures.Historically, Bitcoin has often led traditional markets to their peaks. For example, in November 2021, Bitcoin peaked around $60,000 and quickly fell, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices did not reach their peaks until January 2022, subsequently entering a prolonged downtrend.Analysts believe that stock market traders may need to pay closer attention to Bitcoin's movements to gauge changes in overall risk asset sentiment.

The on-chain analysis platform Lookonchain stated in a social media post that the party responsible for a $50 million loss due to slippage may be Garrett Jin, the operator of the "1011 insider address."On-chain tracking shows that 13 wallet addresses associated with him withdrew USDC or USDT from Binance on February 16 and February 20, and have recently become active again, transferring funds to two new wallets. One of the wallets shares the same Binance deposit address as Garrett Jin.Lookonchain noted that Garrett Jin previously sold 261,024 ETH (approximately $543 million) and 11,318 BTC (approximately $761 million) on February 15 and February 20, respectively, and the withdrawal times from Binance for the aforementioned wallets are close to these transactions.

In the context of crude oil prices rising over 10% on Thursday, approaching $100 per barrel, Bitcoin still holds above the $70,000 mark. U.S. President Trump stated that he is more concerned about stopping Iran's actions than about oil prices; meanwhile, Iran's new Supreme Leader publicly declared for the first time that the Strait of Hormuz should remain closed.Market concerns intensified, leading to a significant drop in stocks: the Nasdaq fell 1.6%, and the S&P 500 dropped 1.2%. Morgan Stanley's $800 million North Port private equity fund suspended redemptions, and its stock price fell 4%, putting pressure on the financial sector. JPMorgan, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo each fell about 3%, while private equity firms KKR and Ares Management dropped 3%-4%.CoinShares Research Director James Butterfill pointed out that oil prices and the geopolitical crisis behind them have become the main drivers of global asset pricing, with the market's sensitivity to expectations of Federal Reserve interest rate hikes diminishing. Despite increased market volatility, Bitcoin continues to show resilience. Dom Harz believes this reflects that institutional demand for Bitcoin has surpassed mere price speculation, focusing more on the infrastructure and applications that can unlock Bitcoin's financial utility.Bitcoin remains strong amid multiple intertwined risks, indicating that large investors are seeking a more robust Bitcoin financial ecosystem.

According to Cointelegraph, the Bitcoin-to-gold ratio shows signs of bullish divergence. MN Capital founder Michaël van de Poppe pointed out that the daily RSI is diverging from the price, indicating a weakening of selling pressure. In February of this year, the ratio fell back to the key support level of 12-13, which was a resistance in 2017 and has turned into support in 2022 and 2023, potentially becoming a reference for the long-term bottom trend of Bitcoin.Meanwhile, Bitcoin ETFs saw a net inflow of approximately $906 million over the past month, while the SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) ETF experienced a $3 billion single-day outflow on March 6, creating a significant divergence.Binance Research noted that the current macro volatility has created "opportunities in risk" for Bitcoin. The conflict between the U.S. and Iran is driving market fluctuations, but capital is gradually flowing back into BTC. Although the trading volume of U.S. spot ETFs accounts for only about 9% of the total Bitcoin trading volume, which is still below the 30-40% level of the U.S. stock market ETFs, it shows that there is still significant room for institutional entry. Historical data indicates that both Bitcoin and U.S. stocks often experience strong rebounds after geopolitical turmoil.

According to Cointelegraph, CryptoQuant data shows that as the demand for Bitcoin derivatives rebounds, the net buying volume of Bitcoin indicates that buyers are entering the market. Net buying volume is an indicator of the imbalance of power between active buyers and sellers in the derivatives market, and it has remained positive since the outbreak of the US/Iran war. This positive trend aligns with Bitcoin's recent price rebound to $74,000, indicating that demand in the derivatives market has returned.Coinbureau CEO Nic added, "This shows that the buying volume has surpassed the selling volume, and buyers are taking control of the market." TradingView data shows that Bitcoin has consolidated in the $62,000 to $72,000 range for over four weeks, with multiple attempts to break through $70,000 failing. From a broader perspective, the BTC price remains between the realized price (the average purchase cost of all circulating supply at $54,400) and the real market average price (the cost basis of actively traded coins at $78,000).Glassnode stated, "In the absence of broader macro headwinds, this range may support a bear market relief rally, with its upper limit constrained by the real market average price."Charts show that BTC prices have spent most of 2023 between these two cost levels, with relief rallies repeatedly stalling near the real market average price. Ultimately, in October 2023, with the announcement of the approval of the US spot Bitcoin ETF, the price broke through.Crypto trader and analyst Titan stated that if the BTC price breaks through the $78,000--$80,000 range, it could signal a change in the long-term trend.

According to on-chain data platform CryptoQuant, the selling pressure from Bitcoin miners has intensified. MARA announced a new policy allowing the sale of Bitcoin reserves and transferred 298 BTC to Cumberland; Core Scientific recently also sold 2,174 BTC.MARA's current average mining cost is about $70,027 per coin, while efficient miners can have costs as low as approximately $45,000. The purpose of the sell-offs by several mining companies includes strengthening their balance sheets and funding the expansion of AI infrastructure.

According to CoinDesk, next week will be a critical test for risk assets like Bitcoin, as seven major central banks, including the Federal Reserve, will announce their interest rate decisions.At the same time, the surge in oil prices driven by war has raised new concerns about global inflation. Traders are reassessing interest rate cut expectations, as rising energy costs may keep inflation elevated, increasing the risk of policymakers adopting a more hawkish stance. The economic calendar includes: the Reserve Bank of Australia, the Bank of Canada, and the Federal Reserve will announce their interest rate decisions on March 18, followed by the Bank of Japan, the Swiss National Bank, and the European Central Bank on March 19.Previously, the market widely expected major central banks to steadily cut interest rates, but the rise in oil prices due to the Middle East conflict has disrupted this expectation. If central banks signal a hawkish stance, it could trigger volatility and downward pressure on risk assets like Bitcoin. Analysts point out that the Federal Reserve's initial response to oil price shocks is usually to wait and assess, hoping to determine which issue—growth or inflation—is more significant, and that most such shocks are temporary. Historically, only the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan have had a substantial impact on Bitcoin prices.

As concerns over potential oil supply shocks eased, Bitcoin continued to rise on Tuesday, boosting global market risk appetite. The International Energy Agency (IEA) announced on Tuesday that it would hold an extraordinary meeting to discuss whether to release emergency oil reserves. WTI crude oil prices subsequently fell to $82, having surged to nearly $120 over the weekend, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 indices rose about 0.5% at midday.Crypto-related stocks also climbed: stablecoin issuer Circle (CRCL) rose 6%, with a two-week cumulative increase of nearly 100%; digital asset infrastructure company BitGo (BTGO) gained over 8%; and blockchain company Figure (FIGR) increased by 12%. After the announcement of Nigel Farage joining, UK Bitcoin treasury company Stack BTC (STAK) saw its stock rise over 200%. The correlation between Bitcoin and software stock ETF (IGV) is weakening, indicating that BTC may begin to exhibit a more independent trend during periods of macro uncertainty.