divergence

According to Cointelegraph, Hyperliquid's native token HYPE retested $45 on Tuesday, marking the highest level since October 31, 2025. This rebound has accumulated a 108% increase from the annual low of $21 on January 21. However, market signals are mixed: spot buying is weak, and the cumulative volume delta (CVD) for spot has dropped to -41.48 million, diverging from the price increase, indicating that the rise is mainly supported by passive demand rather than aggressive spot buying.Futures sentiment is cautious, with the futures CVD remaining flat at around -748 million for nearly a month. Although open interest (OI) has risen to 1.38 billion, the weak futures CVD suggests that traders lack confidence in chasing the price up. Additionally, BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes predicts that if Hyperliquid continues to capture market share from centralized exchanges, HYPE could rise 200% to $150 by August this year. Currently, HYPE is priced at $43.5, which is 27% lower than its historical high of $59. Analysts warn that if bullish momentum fades, the market may be more susceptible to sharp volatility driven by liquidations.

According to CoinDesk, amid the ongoing geopolitical conflict between the U.S. and Iran for about six weeks, the Bitcoin market is clearly dividing into two camps: "passive buyers" represented by Strategy and spot ETFs continue to absorb chips, while whales, mining companies, and some sovereign holders are turning to reduce their holdings.The selling side is showing clear signs: whale addresses holding 1,000 to 10,000 BTC have shifted from net buying to significant net selling, with the change in holdings this year moving from approximately +200,000 coins to -188,000 coins; publicly listed mining companies are also concentrating on reducing their holdings under high cost pressure, with weekly sales exceeding 19,000 BTC. Additionally, sovereign holders like Bhutan have reduced their Bitcoin reserves by about 70% since October 2024.Analysis indicates that despite market sentiment once being in an extreme panic zone, Bitcoin prices have remained fluctuating in the range of $65,000 to $73,000, showing that the price "bottom" mainly relies on support from a few institutional buyers. The current market buyer base continues to narrow, and future trends will depend on whether institutional capital inflows can continue and break through key resistance zones.

According to Crypto In America, the core disagreement between the U.S. cryptocurrency and banking industries regarding the stablecoin yield mechanism may be close to resolution. Several informed sources have revealed that both sides have initiated a new round of communication regarding the latest compromise plan. Although the details have not been disclosed, the overall expectation is becoming optimistic.A previous draft pushed by U.S. senators had sparked dissatisfaction in the industry, with institutions such as Coinbase and Stripe expressing concerns. The market is focused on the "Clarity Act," which is expected to enter the committee review stage later this month. If the yield issue is alleviated, the legislative focus will shift to remaining topics such as DeFi, tokenization, and token classification.In addition, a White House research report on stablecoin yields and their impact on the banking system has yet to be released. It is said that the overall conclusion of the study leans towards supporting the cryptocurrency industry, and the reason for the delay in publication remains unclear.

Global market volatility has intensified, with spot gold experiencing a significant drop during the day, with intraday declines exceeding 5%, reaching a new low for this phase. Meanwhile, the price of BTC has shown relatively stable performance, fluctuating around $68,000. The phase divergence between gold and BTC reflects changes in capital allocation among different assets.According to CoinGlass data, the 24-hour trading volume of XAUT contracts is $2.744 billion, with an open interest of $451 million. Among them, the trading volume of XAUT contracts on the Gate platform is $230.8 million, with an open interest of $43.28 million, both ranking among the top three globally.Gate continues to strengthen its spot, contract, and ETF product system, supporting users in flexibly positioning long and short in volatile and structural markets, while ensuring a trading experience under extreme volatility with deep liquidity and risk control mechanisms. At the same time, the platform deepens its TradFi layout, supporting spot trading of stocks and metals, with contracts covering assets such as metals, indices, stocks, foreign exchange, and commodities, combined with USDT settlement and up to 100 times leverage, facilitating cross-market asset allocation and risk management.

According to Cointelegraph, the Bitcoin-to-gold ratio shows signs of bullish divergence. MN Capital founder Michaël van de Poppe pointed out that the daily RSI is diverging from the price, indicating a weakening of selling pressure. In February of this year, the ratio fell back to the key support level of 12-13, which was a resistance in 2017 and has turned into support in 2022 and 2023, potentially becoming a reference for the long-term bottom trend of Bitcoin.Meanwhile, Bitcoin ETFs saw a net inflow of approximately $906 million over the past month, while the SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) ETF experienced a $3 billion single-day outflow on March 6, creating a significant divergence.Binance Research noted that the current macro volatility has created "opportunities in risk" for Bitcoin. The conflict between the U.S. and Iran is driving market fluctuations, but capital is gradually flowing back into BTC. Although the trading volume of U.S. spot ETFs accounts for only about 9% of the total Bitcoin trading volume, which is still below the 30-40% level of the U.S. stock market ETFs, it shows that there is still significant room for institutional entry. Historical data indicates that both Bitcoin and U.S. stocks often experience strong rebounds after geopolitical turmoil.

Matrixport's analysis states that market sentiment remains tense. However, as the market has been trading on the escalation of the situation in the Middle East for a considerable time, the related risks have been largely priced in, with oil prices currently reflecting a geopolitical premium of about $8 to $10 per barrel. If the process of conflict de-escalation occurs faster than the market's general concerns, risk assets may experience a tactical rebound.From a technical perspective, after a large-scale liquidation of positions, Bitcoin has not seen a further significant decline, showing resilience. As the market enters a consolidation phase, the RSI continues to rise, and bullish divergence signals are gradually emerging. As long as this indicator maintains a fluctuating upward trend, the downward momentum of prices may be suppressed. This also means that continuing to increase short positions at current levels has a weakening risk-reward ratio.

According to market news, Bitcoin's recovery today is closely related to a similar rebound in the U.S. stock market, with artificial intelligence and tech stocks leading the market higher. The tech-heavy Nasdaq index led the gains, rising by 1.05%, while the S&P 500 index increased by 0.68%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 421 points, closing up 0.86% on Tuesday. Analysts point out that the correlation between Bitcoin and gold, as well as U.S. stocks, is currently at its lowest level since the FTX incident in 2022.Despite gold rising 51% over the past six months while Bitcoin has fallen 43%, on-chain data firms believe that this extreme divergence historically indicates significant upside potential. Additionally, the Coinbase premium index turned positive for the first time since January 15, accompanied by a net inflow of $258 million into spot ETFs on Tuesday, indicating that U.S. institutional buying is returning. QCP Capital founder Darius Sit stated that this divergence reflects changes in liquidity driven by position liquidations and leverage, rather than a failure of Bitcoin's long-term narrative.

Renowned trader and chart analyst Peter Brandt, who successfully predicted the Bitcoin crash in 2018, stated that the Bitcoin market may not have reached its true bottom yet, and "the real bottom may not appear until October 2026." He previously predicted that Bitcoin could drop to the $60,000 range in the third quarter of 2026.Brandt believes that prices may oscillate upward in the short term, but could still fall back to the $50,000 high range within the year. Meanwhile, Arthur Hayes pointed out that Ethereum prices may continue to consolidate in the current range until dollar liquidity improves. As of the time of writing, Ethereum is priced at about $1,941, with a decline of over 40% in the past 30 days. However, Michaël van de Poppe, founder of MN Trading Capital, believes that Ethereum is currently in an attractive accumulation zone and emphasized that stablecoin trading volume has increased by about 200% over the past 18 months.In terms of market predictions, Polymarket data shows that there is a 41% probability that Bitcoin will fall below $60,000 by the end of February, while the probability of returning to $75,000 is 29%. Within 2026, the probability of Bitcoin returning to $120,000 is 23%, and the probability of breaking $150,000 is only 10%. For Ethereum, the market expects a 76% probability of it reaching $1,500 in 2026, and a 23% probability of dropping to $1,600.

Matrixport released a chart today stating that although Bitcoin has dropped about 14% since the beginning of the year, crypto-related stocks overall have still outperformed BTC. However, within the sector, individual stock returns have shown significant divergence.Specifically, brokerage and trading platforms (such as Robinhood and Coinbase) have seen double-digit pullbacks; while some Bitcoin mining companies, after shifting their focus to AI data centers, have recorded double-digit gains year-to-date despite last week's pullback. This divergence indicates a change in the market's pricing approach. In the past, the market tended to treat crypto assets as a whole that moved "up and down together"; now, it is beginning to assess based on different companies' business models and primary business directions.As a result, the correlation between related stocks and Bitcoin has decreased, opening up Alpha space at the individual stock level. The noticeable dispersion of year-to-date (YTD) returns in the table is a direct reflection of this change.

According to Jinshi reports, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell stated that there is a divergence between robust growth and a weak labor market, which may be explained by rising productivity.

According to Jinshi reports, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell stated that we may be seeing the divergence between GDP and employment beginning to resolve.

According to official social media news, the decentralized contract trading platform SunX will hold a live stream today at 20:00 (UTC+8) titled "Gold and Silver Reach New Historical Highs | Is This a Flight to Safety or a New Round of Asset Pricing Reconstruction?" At that time, prominent crypto KOLs such as Big Brother, Xiao Zhi, Cong Ge, and Xihe will be invited to discuss the macro background of the recent historical highs in gold and silver prices, focusing on analyzing the risk-hedging logic behind the strength of precious metals, inflation expectations, and changes in liquidity. They will also further compare the pricing differences between gold, silver, and risk assets like Bitcoin in the current cycle.

Since mid-2025, Bitcoin has begun to decouple from the global M2 money supply (i.e., the total amount of money in circulation in the market, including cash, demand deposits, time deposits, etc.), and this trend became more pronounced in early 2026. Historically, the correlation between the two has been the basis for bullish predictions, but analysts are now sharply divided on this phenomenon.Fidelity Digital Assets' January report maintains an optimistic outlook, believing that as the global monetary easing cycle begins and the Federal Reserve's QT plan ends, the M2 growth rate will continue to rise in 2026, which will be favorable for Bitcoin prices. Analyst MartyParty predicts that Bitcoin prices will rebound to catch up with M2 growth.However, Mister Crypto points out that the decoupling of Bitcoin prices from M2 typically signals a market top, followed by a 2-4 year bear market. The founder of Capriole Investments believes that the decoupling reflects the risk of quantum computing breaking Bitcoin's encryption. Despite the uncertainties, investors still view Bitcoin as a long-term store of value.

In 2025, the total cryptocurrency spot trading volume reached $18.6 trillion, a year-on-year increase of 9%, significantly slowing down from the 154% growth rate in 2024. Perpetual contracts, on the other hand, remained strong, growing by 29% to $61.7 trillion, an increase of $13.8 trillion.Binance continued to dominate the market, with a spot trading volume of nearly $7 trillion, accounting for 41% of the top ten exchanges; Bitcoin perpetual contracts reached $25.4 trillion, accounting for 42%. Bybit, MEXC, and Crypto.com each had spot trading volumes of approximately $1.3-1.5 trillion. OKX, Bybit, and Bitget formed the second tier in the perpetual contract market.Stablecoin reserves are highly concentrated, with Binance holding $47.6 billion in USDT and USDC (accounting for 72% of the top ten). In terms of total reserves, Binance leads with $117 billion (31.8%), followed closely by Coinbase with $81 billion (22.1%).

The cryptocurrency market is entering a critical phase of transitioning from a brief rebound to a structural recovery: as mainstream assets stabilize and sector rotations repair, market sentiment has gradually shifted from cautious observation to rational positioning. The current focus of the industry has shifted from "Is a bull market coming?" to "Who can become the last key piece to complete the bull market puzzle?" At this turning point, on January 6 at 8 PM, the SunFlash special roundtable will collaborate with several industry veterans to discuss the signals of structural recovery, the direction of sectors moving from narrative to value, and the characteristics that the ultimate mainline capable of supporting large-scale liquidity should possess, from the perspectives of capital flow, sector realization capabilities, and market structure.Users are encouraged to follow the official accounts @sunpumpmeme and @Agent_SunGenX, retweet the post, and @ three friends. The official account will randomly select 5 lucky users from the participants to receive a reward of 10 USDT each.

The Federal Reserve has cut interest rates three times by 2025, with the latest adjustment bringing the federal funds rate range down to 3.5%–3.75%. However, the latest policy expectations indicate that, despite rates remaining high since 2008, there may only be room for one more rate cut throughout 2026. The significant divergence within the Federal Reserve regarding the interest rate path is creating ongoing uncertainty for Bitcoin and the crypto market.Reports indicate that the "dot plot" released by the Federal Reserve in December 2025 shows that policymakers have differing views on the interest rate outlook for 2026, with a similar number of officials expecting no rate cuts, one rate cut, or two rate cuts. This divergence leaves the market lacking clear guidance as it enters 2026. Current median forecasts suggest that the rate will be around 3.6% by the end of 2025 and approximately 3.4% by the end of 2026, implying only one rate cut next year. According to market expectations, CME Group data shows that investors anticipate only about a 20% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut at the January meeting, while the probability of a rate cut at the March meeting rises to about 45%. Analysts generally believe that the labor market, inflation trends (especially the impact of tariffs), and overall economic growth will remain key variables influencing policy direction.Additionally, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's term will end in May 2026, and the uncertainty surrounding the selection of a new chairman is also seen as a potential variable. Some analysts believe that the new leadership may continue a gradual easing path, thereby providing support for risk assets in the mid to later stages. Industry perspectives suggest that if the labor market continues to weaken, even if inflation rebounds temporarily, the Federal Reserve may still implement two rate cuts in 2026; however, there is also a pessimistic scenario where if inflation rises again, rate cuts and liquidity injections may be forced to pause, potentially exerting significant pressure on stocks and crypto assets.The report concludes that compared to the market's previous optimistic expectations of a "full dovish shift," the Federal Reserve's current more cautious stance is weakening the sentiment recovery in the crypto market. However, from a medium to long-term perspective, the expectation of declining interest rates and leadership changes may still provide phased benefits for high-risk assets like Bitcoin in the future.

CryptoQuant analyst @MAC_D46035 pointed out that there is a persistent divergence between Bitcoin prices and open interest. The analyst stated, "Given that the current market is primarily driven by derivatives, if the expectations for interest rate cuts weaken before the Federal Reserve FOMC meeting, the current upward momentum may be difficult to sustain."