bitcoin

Coinkarma founder Benson Sun posted that around 11 PM on October 1, both the US stock market and gold weakened simultaneously, but the Binance BTC/USDT spot market saw a continuous market buy order of about 400 BTC, supporting the price above $84,000, and ultimately the candlestick formed a doji.Around 1:30 AM on October 3, within the same price range, the market briefly saw about 1,400 BTC market sell orders, causing the price to drop rapidly and form a long lower shadow, but it still held in that area. The candlestick showed that approximately 100 BTC sell orders appeared every few seconds, but the price was quickly pulled back by buy orders after each dip.Benson Sun pointed out that this area highly overlaps with the recent rapid accumulation of on-chain chips in the $83,000 to $84,000 range. Combining the spot order flow with on-chain data, it is judged that there is active capital support in this price range, and the buying response was quite evident after BTC entered this area.

Cryptocurrency analyst Darkfost stated that over the past decade, the volatility of Bitcoin prices around the "Power Law" trend line is gradually decreasing, and market cycle fluctuations are converging. The oscillation indicator peak has dropped from +169 in 2018 to +102 in 2025, with its daily standard deviation decreasing from 4.81 to 2.47, a decline of about 49%.Darkfost added that as of the current model's oscillation indicator at +34.5, the Bitcoin price is approximately $84,700. According to the model parameters for that day, an oscillation indicator of +100 corresponds to a Bitcoin price of about $157,800, which is approximately 86% higher than the current price. He also pointed out that $157,800 is not a fixed target price but rather a reference level calculated based on the current regression parameters. If the Power Law trend line continues to rise in the future, this reference price will also increase accordingly.

According to Bitcoin News monitoring, Arkham stated that it has currently tracked about 78% of the 847,700 bitcoins held by Strategy. The on-chain asset value of the labeled wallets is $40.28 billion, with an additional $15.5 billion in assets marked as being held by Fidelity Custody.In this snapshot, the value of Strategy's bitcoin reserves is $71.4 billion. Saylor had previously stated that he would not disclose these addresses. Arkham first labeled most of these holdings in May 2025, while the remaining holdings have yet to be identified.

Bitcoin News posted on platform X that the SEC plans to propose new rules under the 1940 Act, allowing investment advisors to directly hold related assets when no qualified custodian is willing to custody Bitcoin and other digital assets.The SEC stated that traditional custodians typically refuse to custody such assets, creating a compliance gap in the existing custody framework. The proposal will initiate a 60-day public comment period after its publication in the Federal Register.

Polymarket Bitcoin 2026 price prediction market trading volume reached 72.6 million USD, with a reference price of approximately 84,950 USD. The market's implied probabilities show that the chances of Bitcoin reaching 90,000 USD, 95,000 USD, and 100,000 USD before 2027 are 73%, 54%, and 39%, respectively.Kalshi Bitcoin year-end closing price prediction market trading volume is approximately 39.5 million USD, with a predicted value of 86,240 USD. Claude Opus 5.5 and ChatGPT-6 Astra's predictions for Bitcoin's price on December 31, 2026, are 91,500 USD and 94,000 USD, respectively.

In September, long-dormant Bitcoin addresses transferred 5,419.45 BTC, worth approximately $457 million, involving 94 transactions. The amount transferred was lower than August's 6,427.59 BTC but higher than July's.Among them, wallets created in 2016 transferred 1,556.53 BTC, involving 13 transactions. Wallets created in 2013 transferred about 888.91 BTC, distributed across 26 transactions. Additionally, about 57 transfers involved Bitcoin that had been dormant for 12 to 16 years; the highest amount transferred on September 6, reaching 1,620.39 BTC.

According to CoinDesk, data from the cryptocurrency recruitment platform CryptoJobsList shows that the number of job postings by cryptocurrency companies in September increased from 382 in July to 1,241, continuing to rise from 886 in August, and surpassing the most active month earlier this year, January, which had 573 postings. The number of companies posting jobs in September rose to 125, up from 107 in July, and briefly dropped to 77 in August.The platform believes that the recovery in hiring in September aligns with the seasonal pattern of business returning to normal after the summer off-season in the Northern Hemisphere, but the data indicates that seasonality is not the only reason: the number of job postings in August had already doubled compared to July, and there was no similar surge from August to September in 2025; the most active month that year, October, had only 373 postings, with data from July to September remaining basically flat.In contrast to the increase in job postings, the number of applications fell from 25,700 in July to 24,631 in August, and further declined to less than 20,000 in September. CryptoJobsList interprets this divergence as a tightening competition for professional talent. Over the past three months, finance has been the largest recruitment category, followed by engineering and trading, with stablecoins, AI, security, and compliance also making the top ten; the most requested blockchain skills are Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana.

Bitcoin Magazine reported that the Chief Business Officer of the cryptocurrency exchange platform Coinbase stated that the company is working with advisors from six globally systemically important banks to increase exposure to Bitcoin.Coinbase Chief Business Officer: The company views this as an opportunity to expand the market and provide individuals with more ways to access Bitcoin. Globally systemically important banks are large banks identified by the Financial Stability Board that have a significant impact on the global financial system.

EntropyLab has released the first candidate version of its self-contained Bitcoin key and wallet calculator v1.0rc1. The application runs as a single HTML file, requiring no internet connection and does not generate entropy on its own; users can provide their own entropy to calculate keys and wallets in a completely offline environment.The tool supports multi-signature, PSBT, BIP-85, Silent Payments, vanity addresses, watch-only wallet exports, and random number analysis. This version is reproducible and can be verified through the signatures of four independent signers; the team recommends that users download and verify the file before transferring it to an isolated network computer. The official version v1.0 will be released after the candidate version testing is completed.

According to HOGE Wire, the U.S. federal fiscal year will begin on October 1, 2026, without a budget, and the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) will enter a funding interruption status, halting the review of new cryptocurrency ETFs. Registration statements cannot be declared effective, and opinion letters will no longer be issued. Existing products are unaffected, and BlackRock's IBIT, Fidelity's FBTC, and Grayscale-related products can still be traded and continue to process subscriptions and redemptions.Cryptocurrency ETFs need to complete both the 19b-4 submitted to the exchange and the S-1 or N-1A submitted by the issuer; both paths are paused during the funding interruption. On September 17, 2025, the SEC approved general listing standards for commodity trust shares, allowing eligible products to submit 19b-4 without needing to do so individually, reducing the review time from about 240 days to approximately 75 days; leveraged, inverse, actively managed, lending, and staking products are not included in this template. The article states that as October approaches, there are over 90 pending applications, with some deadlines at the beginning of the month. Nate Geraci told Decrypt that what the industry refers to as ETF Cryptober may be temporarily shelved, which is a delay rather than a rejection.The article also states that on March 17, 2026, the SEC and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission jointly clarified that agreement staking does not constitute a securities offering or sale. BlackRock's Ethereum product ETHB is listed on Nasdaq with a fee of 0.25% and will distribute 82% of staking rewards to investors.

According to monitoring by Glassnode, investors who previously bought at high prices in the Bitcoin market are currently selling off. Data shows that there are two groups currently in a loss state: one group consists of investors who bought at a price of $97,000 one to two years ago, and the other group consists of investors who bought at a price of $89,000 six to twelve months ago.Analysis indicates that investors who entered during the price increase in 2025 are currently selling the most Bitcoin daily, while those who bottomed out during the market decline show a strong willingness to hold and are not selling off in large quantities.

According to Matthew Sigel, the head of digital asset research at investment management company VanEck, Bitcoin is currently in the early stages of a bull market, with strong market performance. VanEck has set a mid-term target for Bitcoin's market capitalization to reach half of gold's market capitalization (approximately $500,000) and believes that in the long term, if Bitcoin can capture a significant share of global energy trade, its price could reach $3 million by 2050.Sigel pointed out that the correlation between Bitcoin and gold has reached a multi-year high, and the continuous inflow of institutional investors through channels such as spot ETFs has provided support for the market. Additionally, Bitcoin mining companies, due to their possession of scarce electricity resources in the AI economy, have seen a significant increase in the value of their mining equipment and energy contracts, providing new opportunities for investors. Regarding the quantum computing risk that the market is concerned about, Sigel stated that while this is a problem that needs to be addressed, the community has already begun to pay attention and actively respond, and this does not constitute a reason to sell Bitcoin.

Analyst Ali posted on platform X that Bitcoin recently faced resistance at $87,000, during which whales took profits and sold over 30,000 BTC. At the same time, $87,000 is also the upper boundary of the price channel that has been suppressing BTC for more than the past two weeks.Ali stated that in the short term, attention should be focused on the lower boundary of the channel at around $82,500. If BTC falls back to this level and whales begin to accumulate again, it will serve as a confirmation signal for considering buying on dips, with the next rebound target looking towards $87,000.

The Nasdaq-listed Bitcoin mining company Bitdeer posted on platform X that, as of the week ending October 2, its Bitcoin mining output was 292.3 BTC, and it sold 292.3 BTC during the same period, resulting in a net increase of 0 BTC, currently maintaining a zero Bitcoin position.

CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr. stated that in the past 30 days, Bitcoin's realized market capitalization grew by 1.2% (approximately 12.8 billion USD), reaching 1.079 trillion USD on October 2. Compared to a growth rate of 0.66% a month ago, its growth rate has doubled.

Renowned trader Killa posted that he expects Bitcoin's peak this year to reach $97,000, with most of the year remaining below that price level in a range-bound movement.Killa stated that in the short term, $80K-$83K is critical for Bitcoin. If it falls below that, the next possible range will be $74K-$77K. That could very well be the last capitulation bottom before pushing towards $97K.However, if the strength continues, the pullback could be much shallower, possibly only down to the low of $80K, followed by the next wave of increase.

CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju posted on the X platform that this round of the Bitcoin bull market will bring a 3-5 times increase, rather than another round of parabolic surge exceeding 10 times, followed by a milder bear market.Ki Young Ju pointed out that in this cycle, the MVRV has never fallen below 1. Even at the lows, BTC has remained above the average on-chain cost basis for holders. Some investors have incurred losses, but overall holders have never fallen into a loss.

According to Onchain Lens monitoring, BlackRock's Bitcoin spot ETF IBIT received 2,309.6 Bitcoins from Coinbase Prime, with the post indicating a value of approximately 196.6 million USD.

Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas posted on platform X that the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has just approved 3x long Bitcoin, Ethereum, gold, silver, crude oil, and natural gas ETPs under the Securities Act of 1933.

According to Catcher Predict monitoring, in the market prediction event "Bitcoin Breakthrough on October 3" on Polymarket, the "Yes" option for the sub-market "84,000" experienced severe fluctuations, plummeting from 92.05% an hour ago to the current 53.6% (a fluctuation of 38.45%). Please note the impact of related breaking news.